Target Share and the Value Beneath: Week Six

Peter Howard Posted On October 19, 2018

Data, analysis, decision, action, and repeat. This is the decision process taught to secret service agents according to John Braddock, author of A Spy’s Guide to Strategy. The CIA doesn’t confirm or deny John actually worked as a spy. Still, it’s probably a solid process for fantasy football, right?

This week, I’ve restricted WOPR Ranks to only included players averaging ten points per game to weed out some noise. I’ve also included a column to compare a player’s opportunity in the last three weeks. This helps because by comparing it to the entire season, we can see when someone may be losing or gaining opportunity recently.

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Data Links:

You can see a team by team breakdown of these tables here: https://twitter.com/pahowdy/status/1052819103923298304

I’ve also uploaded all the data for this week’s tables here for DLF members: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/11M2V-gYlAlrK74eN688NMTrZ9vAPsOanzfAzLVSFLgE/edit?usp=sharing

Now let’s dig in with some analysis.

Top 24 players in Opportunity

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Decisions:

For the sixth straight week in a row, Julio Jones has the most opportunity of any player in the NFL and continues to produce really well on that opportunity. #NeverJulio.
Corey Davis has broken out. I don’t know if the team will help enough for this to show up in points or yards, but his opportunity is immense. If you’re not trying to trade for him in dynasty, I assume you already have him in dynasty, so, congrats.
If I didn’t like Adam Thielen so much, I’d point out his 25 PPG is insane and should come down before the end of the season at least.
Robert Woods leads the Rams in opportunity, and now has the potential to pick up more targets with Cooper Kupp out a while.
Brandin Cooks isn’t far behind Woods at all, and has a surprisingly similar aDot at the moment.
I’m not worried about Michael Thomas though I’d expect more 10-20 points games moving forward rather than 20-30.
Devin Funchess and John Brown look like they are under-producing in PPG compared to players with similar opportunity.

Top 12 Risers

Decisions:

Jamison Crowder‘s slow crawl towards a 21% target share is interesting, and his 0.51 WOPR in the last three weeks would place him in the top 24 with Tyler Boyd for the season.
Tarik Cohen‘s opportunity has grown. I think this might just be a matchup-dependent spike, and Jordan Howard could return to the top tier of RBs. However, it’s hard to argue against Cohen as a flex player with his upside and a dual-natured role right now. He’s had 20% of the team’s touches this season to go along with his 30% of its targets in the last three weeks.
Geronimo Allison has been hurt recently but his volume spike before that is still carrying him. Aaron Rogers is a heck of a player.
Jermaine Kearse has become the beneficiary of the injury to Quincy Enunwa. Expect his production to continue moving forward.
I expected to see a drop in DeSean Jackson production but he had a 22% target share in week six. But I still suspect some targets will migrate back over to Mike Evans.
Anthony Miller has immediately garnered opportunity with his return from injury. It’s not enough to make him a clear starter but enough to be promising.

Top 12 Fallers

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Decisions:

Travis Benjamin has been hurt, which could account of Tyrell Williams and Mike Williams both receiving a decent chance shot at big plays recently. If Benjamin returns to the field, I think it’s more of a negative look for them than a positive one for him in terms of fantasy.
Will Dissly was never really a thing, but it was fun while it lasted.
The Colts need T.Y. Hilton to get healthy again, fast.
I think Brandon Marshall‘s return is all but over for fantasy. David Moore continues to be an interesting prospect on that roster, though the team will have to start throwing the ball more for anyone to be a consistent fantasy player.
Mike Evans should bounce back.
Instead of “positive” regression, Allen Robinson‘s opportunity shrank. I still like him as a player but the team seems to have varied its playbook (Taylor Gabriel, Cohen, Trey Burton etc) rather than continue to target Robinson heavily. He is now more of a top 15 than a top 12 player at the position.

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While Taylor Gabriel’s usage isn’t enough to make the top 24, it is notable that the Bears have changed their usage. I think Gabriel’s rise is legitimate and he could well prove to be a more regular fantasy starter on a week-to-week basis than most believed.

Tight Ends

Only seven players in the top 12 at the tight end position are averaging ten or more fantasy points per game.

Decisions:

David Njoku is breaking out!
George Kittle doesn’t care who’s throwing the ball, George Kittle just catches it. #Breakout.
Jimmy Graham has also benefited recently with the loss of Cobb and then Allison. His targets could recede if one or the other returns.
Jordan Reed is healthy, on the field, being targeted, and is producing 11 PPG. I don’t think this is largely believed to be true. I’ve started trading for him where tight ends have extra value.
Ricky Seals-Jones continues to see consistent, heavy usage despite a lack of production for fantasy. He should (*should*) have a good game coming his way. He’s an interesting “buy low”.

Okay, so that’s’ it for this week.

I will, of course, leave the actions up to you, it’s your team after all. Good luck in week seven and thanks for checking this out.

SERIES NOTES

I’m using a mix of data from 4for4.com and Airyards.com
CoV = The Coefficient of Variation, it measures the variance in a sample (i.e. how much change there is week to week)
Airyards = the total distance before the player caught his targets (essentially receiving yards minus yards after the catch)
Regression = a rate should return closer to “normal” or average when it is greatly over or under that average over a long sample size
WOPR = Weighted Opportunity Rating. It weights target share by the player’s share of air yards. It is one of the most stable (week to week and year to year) opportunity metrics and has extra utility because it describes some of the value in opportunity. It’s also useful because it can highlight potential regression when compared with fantasy points
It should be noted that the WOPR calculation is my own and imperfect when compared Airyards.com. It has a slightly different player order at times, however, it is ranking them in ranges appropriately
Zeno James, from ffstatistics.com, has been invaluable in collecting this data on a weekly basis. Give him a follow at @theDude_Z on Twitter

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Peter Howard

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Peter is a Senior writer for DLF. He live streams about FFL on twitch: twitch.tv/pahowdy as well as hosts the DLF podcast Dynasty Crossroads @DynoCrossroads

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