Dynasty Capsule: Green Bay Packers
Every year we give our premium content members a team-by-team, player-by-player look at the NFL season that was. The coverage will be in-depth, but because the Dynasty Capsule series begins immediately after the season, we won’t use it to discuss free agency or the draft. Come see us in early May once Mr. Irrelevant is off the board for another 32-article series giving you the same detailed discussion you’ll see below.
Buckle up dynasty fans, because you’re about to be reminded why our motto is, “There is no off-season.”
Quarterback
Aaron Rodgers
The best quarterback in the league suffered the second broken collarbone of his career in week six against the Vikings when Anthony Barr drove him to the ground. Through week five, he was QB4 on a points per game (ppg) basis, averaging 25.15 over the only healthy stretch of his season. Rodgers returned after just eight weeks for the week 15 matchup against the Panthers in an effort to lift his team into the playoffs. On the Packers’ final drive, Rodgers had his team in position to tie the game but Geronimo Allison dropped a pass and the Packers were eliminated from playoff contention. With nothing left to play for, Rodgers was shut down for the final two weeks of the 2017 season.
From a dynasty perspective, Rodgers is still my QB1 overall despite now being 34 years old. With an ADP of QB2 in the mid-late third round, his price is likely too rich for me in a one-quarterback league due to the replaceability of the position, but there is no doubt he offers you a weekly floor and ceiling higher than the rest of the field. That said, if you want a stud at the position, his ADP is the lowest it has been since February 2017.
Brett Hundley
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I had high hopes for the UCLA product in relief of Rodgers, but instead, Hundley largely disappointed and exposed the coaching staff’s continued inability to develop a quarterback behind Rodgers. Hundley had two nice fantasy games against the Steelers and the Browns, throwing three touchdowns in each matchup, but averaged a lackluster 15.88 ppg with four out of ten games under 11 ppg. Hundley is worth a roster spot in superflex and 2QB leagues but can be thrown back to the waiver wire in standard one-quarterback leagues.
Joe Callahan
Callahan is unlikely to get any significant work in the NFL, but maybe he should at least get a shot to be Rodgers’ backup after Hundley disappointed. Callahan is a former Division III star from Wesley College where he set passing records. During his senior season, he threw for 5,063 yards and 55 touchdowns, averaging 390 yards and four touchdowns per game. He also had a 633 yard, eight touchdown performance in the 2013 DIII playoffs against Mount Union.The NFL competition is light years ahead of Division III college ball, but the Packers thought enough of him to sign him as a UDFA in 2016. If the Packers move on from Hundley then Callahan is worth monitoring in dynasty leagues.
Running Back
Ty Montgomery
With the emergence of the two rookies, I’m not sure Montgomery will be the lead back entering 2018 but we’ll go with it for now. I was skeptical the production he had in 2016 would continue with a bell-cow kind of workload, but he was productive from a fantasy standpoint before a wrist injury and broken ribs suffered in week four. Montgomery attempted to play through the injuries but was relatively ineffective in the four games he appeared in after week four.
In January his ADP fell to RB31 in the early ninth round of startup drafts. That feels a bit high given the uncertainty in the backfield, but we know he is a productive player and with the shakeup that may happen at wide receiver, there’s a chance Montgomery’s value may have a safety valve at his original position if he gets surpassed by the rookies as a running back.
Aaron Jones
The fifth-round rookie picked up in week four where Montgomery left off, demonstrating big-play ability as a runner. Jones had big games in weeks five and seven and seemed cemented as the Packers new starter before suffering an MCL sprain that cost him most of the second half of the season. He did reemerge in week 13 where he got exactly one carry in overtime. He took that lone carry 20 yards for the winning touchdown in overtime.
It’s possible Jones is the starter entering 2018. At least the dynasty community thinks so. In January mocks, Jones is going off the board as RB23 in the early seventh round, 20-plus spots ahead of Montgomery. Don’t forget that Jones was arrested back in October on marijuana charges and could be facing a suspension. The pretrial for his arrest is scheduled for February 1st, 2018. If you want to buy Aaron Jones, you might get a buy-low window during or after the trial.
Jamaal Williams
My pick to be the best back in Green Bay after the 2017 NFL draft was Jamaal Williams. I thought he was the most well rounded of the running backs and by far the best in pass protection. The argument against was that he didn’t test out as incredibly athletic and it was assumed he couldn’t catch because he wasn’t used much in the passing game at BYU. I felt just because he wasn’t used that way didn’t mean he couldn’t do it.
Williams took over as the lead back in week ten after Jones exited the game early and held on to the job for the rest of the season, posting some huge games of his own along the way. Surprisingly, Williams is the cheapest of the these three running backs at RB34 in the early ninth round. That’s serious value for the guy that could be the starter for the Packers in 2018. I’m a buyer.
Devante Mays
The seventh-round pick was the third running back the Packers drafted in 2017. Despite all the injuries, we didn’t see much from Mays. Four carries for one yard isn’t really enough to say anything about his future but at this point. He is only a stash in the deepest of leagues and unlikely to see the field much in 2018 without a bunch of injuries in front of him.
Wide Receiver
Davante Adams
If you bought Adams during the 2016 off-season after his disappointing 2015 sophomore campaign, you are loving life. He is here to stay as the Packers WR1 after signing a four-year, $58 million contract to stay in Green Bay. After Aaron Rodgers went down, Adams was the only receiver able to remain productive with Brett Hundley. He finished as the WR10 in ppg and was second in the league with ten touchdowns, behind only DeAndre Hopkins (13). Since his low point of 152 overall in July 2016, Adams has risen all the way to 17.5 overall and WR9 off the board. If you can convince someone to sell for less than a top ten price I think he is worth the investment.
Jordy Nelson
I’d like to think Nelson will be back in 2018, but the Packers could save $10m by cutting the 32-year old (33 in May). Nelson disappeared with Hundley under center but was productive in the first four weeks with his buddy Aaron. Nelson did not surpass 7.5 points in any game from week seven on.
If Jordy returns to the Packers in 2018, I think he is worth a buy for contending teams. Once draft season really gets rolling I think there’s a good chance you could get him for a late second or maybe even less. All bets are off if Green Bay doesn’t bring him back. If he decides to keep playing, his value will largely be determined by landing spot.
Randall Cobb
Cobb is another Packer mainstay who could be a cap casualty. Cutting him would save the team $9m. Cobb played better in 2017 than he did in 2016, but finished with less than 700 yards and only four touchdowns for the second straight season. Those aren’t numbers worth $12.7m. I think he could be productive on a second team and his current ADP in the early ninth round at WR47 seems like a value.
Geronimo Allison
Allison potentially cost the Packers a playoff spot with his drop in week 15. However, he flashed at times in 2017. If the Packers do in fact cut one or both of Nelson and Cobb, Allison stands to see an increased target share in 2018 If they choose to spend their off-season working on the defense and he might be sitting on waiver wires in shallower leagues.
Trevor Davis
Davis saw some snaps on offense in 2017 but will continue to be used primarily as a returner on special teams.
Jeff Janis
He’s an unrestricted free agent and probably not coming back.
Michael Clark
Clark is a mammoth 6’6, 217-pound UDFA from Marshall who was activated from the practice squad late in the 2017 season. He has been described as a “raw” Mike Evans. That’s enough for me to add him off the waiver wire in deeper leagues.
Tight End
Lance Kendricks
The plan in 2017 at TE was Martellus Bennett, but that didn’t work out too well and he was cut before going back to New England. Kendricks should enter 2018 as the starter and perhaps another off-season to develop with Aaron Rodgers will bring out the talent he flashed with 50 receptions in his final season with the Rams. Kendricks wasn’t drafted in January mocks and is probably on your waiver wire if you want to take a shot.
Richard Rodgers
He came back to life in week 15 when Aaron Rodgers returned, recording four catches for 77 yards and a touchdown. Outside of that, he did nothing in 2017. He is a UFA this off-season and I don’t know if he will be brought back.
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Creator and Co-host of Dynasty Game night, the fantasy football game show.
Creator and host of the Zookeeper Stories podcast.
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