Training Camp and the Dreaded Season-Ending Injury

Leo Paciga Posted On July 30, 2018

Face it, there’s nowhere to run… nowhere to hide. Once again, you’ll be hypnotized by the love/hate relationship which exists between dynasty owners and the annual start of training camp. Love/hate you say? Well, how else would you describe the giddy anticipation surrounding the start of training camps across the NFL? Anticipation often tempered by a punch-in-the-gut type of nausea that hits when you hear a cornerstone of your fantasy team has suffered a season-ending injury.

While it might seem impossible for your roster to escape unscathed, you can still follow certain strategic guidelines so a key injury is less crippling to your dynasty success. With training camps now underway; we have a great chance to discuss how to survive, replace or even go shopping for an injured player. Here’s an action plan for whenever a season-ending injury threatens to rip apart your dream season during the dog days of summer.

[am4show have=’g1;’ guest_error=’sub_message’ user_error=’sub_message’ ]

Evaluation

The first step in handling a significant injury and major blow to your dynasty squad is to evaluate your current roster. You simply cannot move forward without assessing the overall damage to your squad after losing a key contributor for a year.

I generally put my roster under the microscope and apply these types of questions:

How does losing this player impact my chances of a winning season? On being competitive?
Does losing this player shift my focus to the future and rebuilding?
How deep is my roster at that position? Do I have a player on my bench capable of supplying that production short term? Long term?
Do I need to trade for a player to be a weekly starter at that position?
If I can plug in a player who is already on my roster, do I need to acquire additional depth at that position?
To achieve my intended goal for this season, do I need to target a high-ceiling player or a high-floor player?
Will I need to include the injured player in a deal or do I have enough pieces to put something together without using him as trade bait?
Can I digest selling a key member of my squad at a discounted rate due to injury?
How many owners in my league are rebuilding their teams and focused on the future?
Is there an owner in this league who has expressed an interest in this player before the injury?
Is there an owner in this league who has shown a propensity to acquire slightly discounted injured players in the past?

Once these questions have been answered, it’s time to create an action plan. Ultimately, losing a key member of your dynasty squad will force you to decide one of four things – trade the injured star for a replacement, package multiple pieces together for a replacement, survive on the existing depth of your roster or start building for another day. If you decide to trade your injured star for a replacement, you’ll have to get comfortable with the indigestion which often accompanies moving a shelved asset at a discounted price.

Trading for a Replacement

If the decision is made to actively peruse trading for a replacement player, the next step is to identify potential targets. In a perfect world, you’d focus on low-risk players on prolific offenses with high caliber quarterbacks and innovative coaches. Unfortunately, dynasty owners don’t live in a fantasy football utopia year round. In fact, skilled dynasty owners thrive in difficult situations overcoming roster challenges and turning inevitable disasters into golden opportunities… sort of like the “Anti Jeff Fisher.”

Sometimes that means taking a chance on high-risk producers or stepping outside of the deafening group think mentality on a particular player. In this case, however, replacing those points in your line up can often be resolved by targeting players who reside in what I call the dynasty “slack tide.” The dynasty slack tide refers to productive players just old enough to be invisible to the youth chasers in your league. You know the players I’m talking about – the veterans zeroing in on their AARP cards who are underappreciated, undervalued, but still have the potential to be very productive in a one or two year window.

In order to narrow down your target search, make a list of possible replacement players and follow that up with the reasons why they’re on your radar and how they can help you meet your goal for the season. That process should reveal one or two prime targets to zero in on.

Once a target is clear, it’s time to move on to the deal-making aspect of the process. It’s crucial to take the time to study the entire roster of the player (and owner) you’re targeting. The key, especially when looking to replace an injured player, is to craft a deal that benefits both sides and studying the entire roster of the other owner will help you pinpoint their areas of need. Your league mates already know you’ve lost a major asset and that can make trade discussions even more difficult from a value perspective. Opening with a well-crafted offer, beneficial to both sides, could help set the table for more balanced negotiations and offset the fact you’re not operating from a position of strength.

In the end, it’s all about plugging production back into your line up. The void left by a season-ending injury can be substantial and as a competitive dynasty owner, you’ll be forced to address it one way or another. Whether you trade away an injured star or you decide to package some lesser players together in a deal; your goal is still to minimize the impact on your team’s weekly production.

Buying an Injured Player

Talk about coming at a situation from the other end of the spectrum. Buying or trading for an injured player is an interesting and potentially rewarding aspect to managing a dynasty football squad. Owners that practice risk aversion as a second religion will find this idea completely appalling, but acquiring injured talent at a discount – as long as due diligence is done – can be a great value and strategy for long-term competitiveness.

When dealing with the level of risk associated with buying an injured player; homework must be done with every resource available scoured diligently even though transparency with NFL clubs can often be limited. Modern medicine has advanced so much in the past decade that there are no longer any injuries that should scare folks off except for head trauma and/or concussions.

Before acquiring an injured player, ask these types of questions:

What is the severity of the injury?
What is the normal recovery time for this type of injury?
What does the rehab for this type of injury entail?
Are there any potential complications that generally occur with this type of injury?
Are there other players who have returned from this injury with limited loss of ability?
Does the injured player have a history of injuries?
Has the injured player shown a tendency to be a “slow” or “fast” healer?
Has the injured player shown dedication and commitment when working back from previous injuries?
How does this NFL team/coaching staff historically handle injured players and their rehab? Do they rush players back too soon?
If 100% recovery is assumed, how much does acquiring this player improve fantasy roster strength/production?

Most likely trading for an injured player will ultimately depend on roster construction and potential discount, but if a roster is deep enough to trade for (and stash) an injured player, or if a team is rebuilding – then it’s a viable strategy. It’s also easier to negotiate a trade for an injured player because you can work your way up until the asking price surpasses your comfort zone. Bottom line: there are no guarantees when it comes to buying an injured player, but ultimately the lack of certainty is the same reason there is value to be found.

Don’t forget the Wire

One last thought. The waiver wire can be your best friend after losing a key producer to a major injury since unheralded players suddenly surrounded by buzzwords and opportunity appear almost out of thin air during training camp on a yearly basis. As long as dynasty owners stay alert and plugged into all the camp happenings around the league, there’s a chance to strike gold. Staying active, alert and informed throughout the season will allow you to work some waiver wire magic and build roster depth, usually at a reasonable price.

Well, hopefully, this article provided some insight into navigating the rough waters associated with surviving, replacing or buying an injured player. In a dynasty league, injured players can often be trade catalysts – a player whose value or situation has changed enough to drive trade discussions and negotiations… and the great thing about dynasty fantasy football is owners are dealing with a longer time frame – a bigger window – to take advantage of these types of situations.

I encourage everyone out there to take the time to research players, watch some film and continue to actively improve your dynasty rosters. The tools and opinions provided by DLF can certainly help take your teams to the next level. Feel free to contact me on Twitter @Ciga_FF with any questions or comments.

[/am4show]

Author
Recent Posts

Leo Paciga

Honorary Contributor at Dynasty League Football

With over 25 years of fantasy football experience, Leo spends his free time saving the world by resolving one FF dilemma at a time. He also focuses his attention on skillfully merging the worlds of quantitative and qualitative data in order to fine tune his player breakdowns. Leo is a member of the FSWA.