The DLF Dynasty Trading Post: June

Welcome to the Dynasty Trading Post, a regular column here at Dynasty League Football. This column is intended to track which players or assets increasing, or even decreasing, in value, allowing our readers to adjust their sights and values accordingly.

With the NFL Draft concluded and many rookies having recently taken part in their first professional practice sessions, there is a lot of digest in terms of trade value. Some rookies were drafted to teams that were excellent fits, others have found themselves in situations that don’t project well in terms of future fantasy relevance. Additionally, some veterans are now forced to fight for their starting position.

There is a whole lot of think about and consider from a dynasty perspective, let’s take a look at the Dynasty Trade Finder to get a pulse on current player values.

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“Hunt”ing for Value

The trade market for Kareem Hunt has exploded over the past month. The number of trades involving Hunt has mushroomed by 155 percent, growing from 20 trades last month to 51 trades over the past 30 days. Part of this explosion in his trade market could be due to the fact that Kansas City did not draft a single offensive player in the NFL Draft.

Since every story has two sides, some may view this as an endorsement of Hunt and a sign that the Chiefs are content using him in a similar role to how he was used last season. Those looking to trade him away may view this as a sign that Kansas City may become too predictable, setting up Hunt for a possible sophomore slump.

It is likely that both sides of these trades believe that the Chiefs will lean heavily on Hunt after trading away Alex Smith and elevating Patrick Mahomes to the starting quarterback role. Opinions on what leaning on Hunt means for his value is where the two parties are likely to diverge.

A Penny For Your Thoughts

By far the player who has seen the biggest bump in his trade market is Seattle Seahawks rookie Rashaad Penny. Penny was only traded twice last month, as opposed to fellow rookie Saquon Barkley, the hottest name in the draft, being traded four times. However, in the last month Penny has been moved 23 times, an astounding 1,050 percent jump in his trade market. Meanwhile, Barkley, still the most sought-after rookie, only saw the number of trades involving him double to eight.

Penny’s 23 trades over the past 30 days puts his marketability in the same range as elite running backs Ezekiel Elliott (23 trades), Alvin Kamara (25 trades), David Johnson (25 trades) and Le’Veon Bell (31 trades). This huge bump in marketability can be directly traced to comments that his new coach Pete Carroll have made, declaring that Penny is likely to be a three-down running back in their offense and that the selection of Penny, “fired me up”.

Those trading Penny away have likely remembered similar proclamations in the past made by Carroll, while those acquiring him likely view Penny as a more complete player than those Carroll have referenced in the past.

Slip, Sliding Away

The only player to see his marketability decrease by a double-digit percentage (-11.5%) over the past 30 days is Ezekiel Elliott. While that decrease in trades involving him might appear negative at first glance, it can also be viewed in a positive manner as well.

When it becomes harder to trade a player it means that those currently in possession of him are either more likely take a chance on his potential future production or, view him as more valuable than the market, pushing is asking price incrementally higher in the future.

With the departure of Dez Bryant and Jason Witten, this is likely the view held by current Elliot owners. Since the Cowboys have been unable to secure what many may view as an elite pass catcher to take over Bryant’s spot, Elliott could be in store for even heavier usage going forward. With last season’s suspension behind him and a perceived increase in usage ahead of him, Elliott owners may be a bit less willing to accept a trade that involves him as a piece, choosing instead to see if his value increases in the future.

This is one of those instances where less trading volume may signal an increase in perceived player value on the horizon.

To Pick Or Not To Pick, That Is The Question!

If there was ever a time that rookie picks, both current and future, are hot, then is straight after the draft. With many dynasty leagues either engaging, or about to engage in their rookie drafts, those picks are at a premium.

Already, much like the case with Elliott, we’ve seen the picks at the top of the draft become much more difficult to acquire with the shared volume of picks 1.01 through 1.08 decreasing by nearly 12 percent and picks 1.01 and 1.03 decreasing by 26.6 percent and 24.8 percent, respectively. Owners do seem willing to move picks after the first eight though, with the rest of the first round seeing an uptick of 7.8 percent over last month.

Furthermore, second and third round picks have risen in marketability by 14 percent and 19.7 percent, respectively. It is my belief that these two factors are tied together as owners look to move second and third round picks in order to jump into the end of the first round. Rookie picks for future seasons are also seeing an increase in marketability due to, what I can only guess, are similar reasons. Picks for 2019 are highly marketable right now with a generic 2019 first round pick being traded nearly as much as (683 trades) as the collective trades for the 2018 first round (703 trades).

Oddly, 2019 second round picks are nearly as popular as both the 2018 and 2019 first round picks put together with 1,259 trades recorded moving 2019 second round picks versus 1,386 trades involving either year’s first round picks. Meanwhile, trades involving picks for the 2019 third round, 2020 second round and 2020 third round have all, at least, doubled in volume. The market will never be hotter for these picks than it is right now.

IDP Corner Market

IDP leagues aren’t as popular as their offense-only brethren, and even within IDP leagues, trades involving defensive players tend to number fewer than those involving offensive players. That said, I always try to highlight some tradeable defensive assets each time I write this column.

The most tradeable defensive line player over the most month has been Olivier Vernon who was involved in eight trades over the past 30 days. That also made him the defensive line player with the biggest volume increase over the past 30 days and the defensive line player involved in the most trades (10) over the last 60 days.

Meanwhile, Bobby Wagner, De’Vondre Campbell, Eric Kendricks and K.J. Wright were the most traded linebackers over the past 30 days. Conversely, Von Miller, Blake Martinez and Telvin Smith each saw their marketability increase three-fold over that period.

Finally, Defensive Backs Karl Joseph, Earl Thomas and Jalen Ramsey were the most traded last month. Ramsey and Joseph pulled double-duty showing up as the biggest market growers as well.

With the dynasty community being in the midst of one of the busiest trading periods of the season, the Dynasty Trade Finder tool has the potential help many dynasty owners construct a trade that has a better chance of being accepted.

While no two trades are the same, dynasty owners can look through nearly 140,000 trades to plan their trading strategy. If you’ve never checked out the Dynasty Trader Finder then you’re missing out on an extraordinary resource so fix that today! Happy trading everyone!

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