Oh, Henry! The Dynasty Ramifications of Hunter Henry’s Torn ACL
When gazing upon the countless lists of possible breakout players for 2018, it was very hard to find one that didn’t list tight end Hunter Henry of the Chargers towards the top. After all, he was set for his first season where he was truly the TE1 in the offense after the Chargers let future Hall of Famer Antonio Gates hit free agency. Henry had shown great promise in his first two seasons, posting 117 catches for 1,057 yards and scoring 12 touchdowns in a part-time role. Unfortunately, we’ll have to wait for what many feel is an inevitable rise to stardom for Henry as he tore his ACL in OTAs today and will miss the entire 2018 season. This is a devastating blow to the Chargers and has long-ranging dynasty ramifications. Let’s examine the players involved.
Hunter Henry, TE LAC
[am4show have=’g1;’ guest_error=’sub_message’ user_error=’sub_message’ ]
This is a very tough break for Henry as he really was poised for a big year as the full-time starter at tight end. Ranked as the TE4 in our dynasty rankings, Henry had also ascended all the way up to #56 in our Dynasty ADP, around such fantasy stars as Deshaun Watson, Russell Wilson, LeSean McCoy and Cooper Kupp, among others. This injury will surely drop him down a smidge, though some owners may overreact a bit. While the loss for 2018 is a monster blow for many dynasty teams, the good news is a torn ACL in May should have Henry back on track for next year. The Chargers don’t really have a viable in-house replacement (more on that later) who is going to take his spot and “Wally Pipp” him next season. Still just 23 years old, Henry has a bright future in the NFL and in dynasty leagues. This injury will sting teams this year but Henry remains a strong hold or even a “buy low” candidate in dynasty leagues.
Chargers Tight Ends
The Chargers currently boast a tight end room including Virgil Green, Sean Culkin, Ben Johnson and Braedon Bowman. Of those players, Green looks to currently benefit the most. However, he has posted just 71 catches in seven NFL seasons and is more of a blocker. One can imagine that tight end room is going to have another player or two here soon.
Antonio Gates, TE FA
Early replacement speculation is squarely on Gates, who is still a free agent waiting for a contract. However, it was clear Father Time had caught up with him last year as he recorded just 30 catches for 316 yards and three touchdowns. In short, this is clearly not the player who has given the Chargers more than 900 catches, over 11,500 yards and a mind-boggling 114 touchdowns over the past 15 years. The Chargers could bring him back but expectations should be tempered here. If Gates was given the starting job back, a season of 500-600 yards and a handful of scores would look like the ceiling for him next year based on his age and diminishing skills. Remember, no other team has expressed enough interest in him to sign him this off-season. Still, he knows the offense and would surely be a better option than any of their in-house replacements.
Free Agent TEs or Trade Targets
I’d expect the Chargers to start kicking the tires on some free agent tight ends and make some calls to see who may be available. In addition to Gates, players who come to mind as possibilities to me are Nick O’Leary (Bills), Julius Thomas (Free Agent), Dwayne Allen (Patriots), Maxx Williams (Ravens for the moment), Jesse James (Steelers), Richard Rodgers (Eagles), and Coby Fleener (Free Agent). These are all just off the top of my head but it seems like a relatively realistic group of possible low-cost targets. There’s little chance the Chargers are going to trade anything significant to get a better player with Henry still the future for them.
Chargers Receivers
It’s time for someone outside of Keenan Allen to step up and soak up some of the targets Henry would have received. The player squarely in the crosshairs is Mike Williams, who endured what can only be described as a lost season after being the 7th overall pick in last year’s draft. Now healthy, the Chargers were already expecting more from him this season and this injury makes that production more of a priority than a luxury. Tyrell Williams and Travis Benjamin should also enjoy some increased targets as well.
Philip Rivers, QB LAC
Rivers has proven time and time again that he can (and will) produce numbers regardless of who may be on the field with him. This injury won’t affect him too much and he should remain a QB2 who will put up some good games. In reality, his life will be tougher. In fantasy, he should still be just fine.
Melvin Gordon, RB LAC
With one more weapon on the shelf, the Chargers will rely even more on production from Gordon. You can make a case this helps his short-term value but he was going to get as much as he could handle this year, regardless.
The injury to Hunter Henry is the first of what promise to be many significant injuries over the Summer. Keep it here all off-season and we’ll keep you updated.
[/am4show]
Ken is on Twitter at DLF_KenK
