Dynasty Fantasy Football Rookie Update: Kerryon Johnson, RB DET

Travis May Posted On May 9, 2018

Editor’s Note: To help you dominate your rookie drafts, this series will feature a look at the strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats of over 40 dynasty rookie draft prospects and run all through the month of May and even into June. We’ll cover all the premier prospects but also give you critical information on some of the lesser known talents. All of these rookie updates will be loaded into our ever-evolving 2018 Rookie Draft Guide – the ultimate resource for dynasty enthusiasts all over the world.

Name: Kerryon Johnson

Position: Running Back

Pro Team: Detroit Lions

College Team: Auburn Tigers

Draft Position: Round two, 43rd overall

Video Highlights

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=swLPYs2ZF8s

Combine Review

Height: 6’0”
Weight: 213 pounds
Hands: 9 3/4”
Arm Length: 32 1/2”
Bench Press: 11 Reps
40 Yard Dash: 4.52 Seconds (Pro Day)
20 Yard Shuttle: 4.29 Seconds
3 Cone Drill: 7.07 Seconds
Vertical Jump: 40 Inches
Broad Jump: 126 Inches (10’6”)

Strengths

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As I discussed at length in my pre-draft profile on Kerryon Johnson, he is incredible when it comes to finding positive yardage. His vision from snap to finish rivals that of any in the 2018 draft class. He simply finds a way to get where he needs to go.

Johnson also boasts above average athleticism in just about every category. He posted ridiculous jumps (both above the 90th percentile for RBs). His agility drills were both about average. Some people want to call him slow, but that’s just not true. Johnson struggled with a hamstring injury for most of the 2017 season and still absolutely crushed the competition. He’s definitely going to surprise people when he’s even faster on Sundays.

Be sure to keep checking our Complete Dynasty Rookie Rankings for constantly updated rookie values!

Another surprising strength Johnson possesses is versatility. Thanks to Auburn’s strange offensive scheme, Johnson was asked to do many things. He can run inside, outside, and out of the Wildcat, yes. But he also caught 24 receptions in 2017, and completed four passes in his tenure with Auburn. In today’s NFL, versatility is important if a running back wants to stay on the field. Johnson definitely has that going for him.

Weaknesses

The first thing that everyone sees when they watch Johnson run is his tendency to run high. Like Le’Veon Bell, he likes to survey the entire field before making his decisive cuts. He runs upright leading up to the line of scrimmage on just about every snap. He’ll even hesitate, waiting for the right opening, like Bell does for the Steelers. However, that gets him in trouble and caps the maximum gain on some runs.

Johnson’s only other real weakness may be the use of his strength. He will use it at times, and when he does it’s an instant highlight-worthy play. However, Johnson will also go down on some first contact more often than he probably should at his size. Some of that may have been because he was playing partially injured most of 2017, but hopefully, he sheds that habit.

Opportunities

It’s clear that the Detroit Lions wanted Kerryon Johnson badly on draft day. They traded up eight spots in the second round (also moving their fourth round pick) to grab him. Yes, there are other running backs in town, but the Lions are clearly tired of dealing with horrible running back play.

Ameer Abdullah is in the final year of his contract and has shown next to nothing. Theo Riddick is a pass-catching afterthought. LeGarrette Blount is the new guy in town, but he’s 31 years old with a one-year contract. The gate is wide open for Johnson to immediately own the Detroit backfield.

Based on the 2017 Lions, if Johnson does immediately own the Lions backfield he could be looking at more than 200 touches, over 1,000 total yards, and possibly 30 or more receptions in year one.

Threats

While the competition doesn’t seem too intimidating, there are three other running backs that the Lions will likely roster in 2018. Abdullah, Riddick, and Blount have all done something good in the NFL at some point. Any of them could sap Johnson’s short-term value.

Theo Riddick could retain his consistent receiving role and sap the PPR ceiling for Johnson. Blount could take the goal line carries in year one, taking away another avenue for meaningful production. Abdullah surprisingly seems like the least threatening piece on the roster, but still boasts great athleticism and a balanced skill set.

Lastly, Johnson needs to avoid early career injury. If he is asked to carry a significant workload he could be injured again like he was for much of 2017. The Lions haven’t been known for their run blocking either. Hopefully, Johnson can avoid injury and any unworthy backfield competition.

Short-Term Expectations

Johnson is immediately the best running back on the Detroit Lions. However, the Lions haven’t been known to commit wholeheartedly to one running back in recent years. The good news is that there’s a new sheriff in town (Matt Patricia). He and his offensive coaching staff may shift the priorities around. Realistically Johnson should see at least 150 carries as a rookie, if healthy. The Lions will realize quickly that he is the most talented back in town, by far, and utilize him more towards the end of the season. Expect flex level production pretty quickly.

Long-Term Expectations

This is where selecting Kerryon Johnson should be easy. He’s the only running back on a contract beyond 2019. The Lions will give him every chance to succeed given their second-round investment in him. Stafford is still going to be around for a long time, so there should be decent offensive stability. If Kerryon finds his true potential, he may find himself inside the top 15 dynasty running backs for a long time.

NFL Player Comparison

Even though it may seem like a reach or cliché at this point, Kerryon Johnson’s best NFL comparison is Le’Veon Bell. Johnson obviously has a long way to go before he’s considered anywhere near as talented, but they do approach the running back position the same way. They’re both patient, but decisive. They both run upright to start, but find the lane to fit through for the tough yardage. And surprisingly enough, Johnson can catch passes pretty well too. This won’t seem too crazy in a year or two.

Projected Rookie Draft Range

Thanks to the hype surrounding the running back position and this class in particular, Johnson isn’t exactly going to come cheap in most rookie drafts. According to May 2018 Rookie ADP, Johnson is selected in between picks eight and twelve just about every time (in 1QB leagues). He may come a bit cheaper in superflex or 2QB leagues, but it’s pretty clear he is a highly-coveted rookie draft commodity.

As always, find me on Twitter @FF_TravisM. Look for videos using the hashtag #TouchdownTime. And yes, I love to chat about these players. I want to learn from you! Thanks for reading, and keeping living that Dynasty Life!

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