2018 Rookie Profile: Kerryon Johnson, RB Auburn

The 2018 class is yet another stacked group at the running back position. There could very well eight (or more) running backs selected inside the first three rounds this season. And of those top eight running backs or so just about all of them have some major hype train going.

But somehow, to many dynasty owners, Kerryon Johnson looks to be the least sexy of all the potential day one or two running backs in this class. Why is that? Kerryon’s name is fitting given that he absolutely carried the Auburn offense in 2017. He does just about everything well for running back prospect. So why isn’t there any hype? Let’s try and figure him out.

The Stats

At first glance, Johnson’s stats aren’t too spectacular compared to some of the top running backs in this class, but let’s take a closer look.

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Statistics from sports-reference.com.

He came in as a true freshman and grabbed the most receptions of any running back for Auburn with 14. Even though he only logged 52 carries as one of several backups to Peyton Barber (now a Tampa Bay Buccaneer), it was clear Johnson already offered the best feature back skill set in that backfield.

As a sophomore, Johnson split time with Kamryn Pettway because Auburn ran the ball 70% of the time. But again it was clear Johnson offered the best all-around skill set as he led the Tigers in touchdowns and receptions again.

And finally, as a junior Johnson was finally (and partially due to a Pettway injury) asked to carry the entire load for Auburn. He kicked off the seasons with 504 rushing yards and 12 touchdowns in his first four games of the 2017 season. Sadly after playing Georgia, Alabama, then Georgia again, and enduring an injury to the ribs all in the same month, he finally ran out of gas. People want to knock Johnson for his lack of efficiency, but they misunderstand how he wins and what he was asked to do for the Auburn offense. Breaking down the film helps explain this.

The Film

These are mainly just highlights, but they definitely showcase Johnson’s balanced skill set.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=swLPYs2ZF8s

“But those highlights aren’t flashy enough!” Child, please. If any similar utterance is a part of any player evaluation you see, run away, quickly.

The largest criticism of Johnson (besides his “lack of flash” or whatever) is his running style. He will often run upright until he braces for contact. However, he also actually shows a consistent tendency to make last-second adjustments to dip under or around incoming contact. Even when he runs high, he gets down and adds yards after contact. If that weren’t the case he wouldn’t be so successful netting positive yardage. And last time I checked, gaining positive yardage is an important part of being a running back.

But how successful is he you might ask?

Out of the nine games that I charted in 2017, Johnson gained zero or more yards on over 92% of his runs. (That’s really good.) In those same nine games, Johnson faced at least one extra defender “in the box” 40% of the time. And despite defenses knowing exactly what’s coming (Auburn ran the ball 63% of the time in 2017), Johnson averaged positive yards per carry in every personnel package against every single number of defenders in the box (READ THAT AGAIN, seriously). That’s not something even the unfathomably great Saquon Barkley can boast.

So, what’s the point? While 4.9 yards per carry isn’t the sexiest number out there in a stacked running back class, it hardly tells the whole story. Johnson consistently shows the ability to read and even manipulate defenders to find extra yardage (if only a little bit). He can catch passes (one-handed at times). He isn’t afraid to lower his shoulder against the toughest defenses in existence. But is he athletic enough to be a professional running back? If he looks like a slow “grinder” in college, how much slower will be by NFL standards?

Athleticism

After the NFL Combine, there were still some questions about Johnson’s speed (all measurements via Mock Draftable). However, one quick look shows that he tested above average in everything else but the short shuttle and bench press (which he fixed at his pro day).

Johnson also answered the question on his speed at his pro day. All reports place his forty time in the low 4.5s. If we add a little bit since pro day times are typically a little optimistic he still runs around 4.56 or 4.57. That’s about exactly average for NFL Combine running backs. For reference, Alvin Kamara ran a 4.56 in 2017.

According to Mock Draftable, he actually profiles somewhat similarly to Kamara. That level of athlete doesn’t really show up on film, but it does speak to the fact that Johnson’s raw athleticism doesn’t seem to be a detriment to his future NFL success.

Dynasty Value

As mentioned earlier, Kerryon Johnson is still considered one of the top running backs in this class by many. However, he keeps being passed over about more than a half-dozen running backs consistently according to April 2018 Rookie ADP. It looks as though Johnson may be had outside of round one in many cases, unless something drastically changes.

Johnson’s startup value is even better though. People seriously think selecting a 34-year-old Larry Fitzgerald, Chris Thompson, or the WR3 in Cleveland (Corey Coleman) is a better idea. Johnson’s April 2018 Dynasty ADP is around pick 102. That’s the range that scares many dynasty owners. It also begins the “take your shot” range in many cases. Johnson is definitely worth a shot there.

Conclusion

In the back half of this video, I leave some thoughts on Kerryon Johnson.

More RB questions left unanswered! New #TouchdownTime graphic courtesy of the great @NFLDraftTalker! #NFLDraft2018 #NFLCombine2018 #FantasyFootball pic.twitter.com/zuwmMlHgfU

— Travis May (@FF_TravisM) March 6, 2018

Kerryon Johnson could very well be the best value pick in 2018 rookie drafts. It’s not too often the consensus RB8 could easily become the RB2 in a class, but that’s what Johnson presents. He offers a balanced, disciplined, skill set that should translate to pro success.

As always, find me on Twitter @FF_TravisM. Look for videos using the hashtag #TouchdownTime. And yes, I love to chat about these players. I want to learn from you! Thanks for reading, and keeping living that Dynasty Life!

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