Dynasty Fantasy Football Rookie Update: Christian Kirk, WR ARI

Tom Kislingbury Posted On May 9, 2018

Editor’s Note: To help you dominate your rookie drafts, this series will feature a look at the strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats of over 40 dynasty rookie draft prospects and run all through the month of May and even into June. We’ll cover all the premier prospects but also give you critical information on some of the lesser known talents. All of these rookie updates will be loaded into our ever-evolving 2018 Rookie Draft Guide – the ultimate resource for dynasty enthusiasts all over the world.

Name: Christian Kirk

Position: Wide Receiver

Pro Team: Arizona Cardinals

College Team: Texas A&M

Draft Position: Round two, 47th overall

VIDEO HIGHLIGHTS

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TmlIeRgb7A0

COMBINE REVIEW

Height: 5’10 3/8”
Weight: 201 lbs
Hands: 9 7/8”
Arm Length: 31 5/8”
Bench Press: 20 Reps
40 Yard Dash: 4.47 Seconds
20 Yard Shuttle: 4.45 Seconds
60 Yard Shuttle: 12.03 Seconds
3-Cone Drill: 7.09 Seconds
Broad Jump: 115”
Vertical Jump: 35 1/2”

STRENGTHS

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Kirk clearly has the playmaker gene. He’s electric in space and tight quarters, which is why he managed to force 35 missed tackles on just 233 catches in college. He is just one of those players who have a natural understanding of how to elude tacklers. This is a trait that tends to translate to the NFL so I think Kirk can be effective even with limited touches.

As his 40 time showed, Kirk has excellent speed and he uses it well when running routes. He can get open deep and that speed also opens up curls and comebacks for him.

He showed good versatility in college. At his size, many will assume he’s a natural slot receiver but he played plenty on the outside too. His combination of speed and moves is going to get him open wherever he lines up. He was also an extremely effective returner which will offer him another route to making plays.

WEAKNESSES

Surprisingly for a player who showed such electric moves, Kirk tested poorly in the three-cone drill which is a worry. I’m always a little nervous with sub six feet receivers who don’t show elite quickness.

He also showed inconsistent hands with 18 drops over the last three seasons. Drops aren’t a very sticky stat and he could easily improve but next to Larry Fitzgerald and his amazing hands, Kirk could stand out in a bad way.

Kirk also needs to develop significantly in his route running. He was simply not asked to run a sophisticated set of NFL patterns. He will need to expand his repertoire significantly and immediately if he’s going to be effective at the next level.

OPPORTUNITIES

The Cardinals depth chart is terrifyingly wide open at receiver. Larry Fitzgerald is obviously a fantastic player even at his advanced age but aside from him, Kirk will be competing with Chad Williams, Brice Butler, J.J. Nelson and Cobi Hamilton. It would be extremely surprising to me if Kirk did not emerge as the number two option at the position. There’s also not much at tight end. Ricky Seals-Jones received a lot of hype in 2017 but ultimately only has 12 career catches. Meanwhile, Jermaine Gresham hasn’t managed 40 catches or 400 yards in a season since 2014. In the three seasons since then, he has a total of 88 catches, 936 yards, and five TDs. the depth chart is as wide open for Kirk as can be reasonably expected.

I also love the fact the Cardinals brought him in at the same time as their new franchise quarterback Josh Rosen. They’ll have the opportunity to learn the playbook together, go through OTAs together and grow together. People will talk about Fitzgerald being a mentor to Kirk but when Fitz entered the league in 2004, Kirk was busy being eight years old. Rosen and Kirk are about four months apart in age. I think there’s a great opportunity for them to grow together.

THREATS

The Cardinals have got this running back coming back from injury you might have heard of. David Johnson? I suppose it’s possible that he could suck up some receiving volume.

Coupled with the fact that Rosen is a rookie and the team has a brand new coaching scheme, it seems clear the team will drop in terms of volume as well as efficiency. Kirk could gather a good proportion of the available targets but if that target total is extremely low then it’s a problem.

SHORT-TERM EXPECTATIONS

Over the last five seasons, Mike McCoy’s second option at receiver has secured 14% of available targets. I’m expecting that to translate to 80-90 targets in 2018. From that, I expect 45-50 catches, 651 yards, and three touchdowns. Those numbers are WR5 sort of range so I expect him to be useful in some weeks (given his big-play ability due to forcing missed tackles and high-end speed) but ultimately not great.

LONG-TERM EXPECTATIONS

After 2018, however, I’m pretty excited. I mentioned earlier that he and Rosen are going to spend a lot of time together and so after their rookie seasons we’ll likely see good chemistry. On top of that, Larry Fitzgerald has at least a very good chance of being retired. He’s openly considered it the last two or three years and the Cardinals are unlikely to be contenders this season.

Longer term, I think Kirk will be a good WR2/3. If he can sharpen up his route running and hands then he can become a game-breaking option in an offense that will likely be extremely efficient at putting the ball in the hands of playmakers (given Rosen’s skillset).

NFL PLAYER COMPARISON

At the top end of potential, I think Kirk’s ability as an instinctive playmaker both inside and out reminds me of Steve Smith. He’s a similar size and can play all across the formation. His natural body control is a joy to watch as he swerves around potential tacklers.

At a more realistic level, I want to say Golden Tate. They’re a very similar size and although Tate is slippery and hard to tackle he really does it through elusiveness rather than sheer quicks.

PROJECTED ROOKIE DRAFT RANGE

Kirk is being selected around late round one or early round two range at the moment. He’s right in the same sort of place as his contemporaries Michael Gallup, Courtland Sutton, James Washington, Anthony Miller and Dante Pettis.

I definitely like Kirk more than Washington or Pettis who are both going to be more deep threats than possession receivers, but you can easily make a case for Kirk and the others being in any order.

If you love him, you’ll need to burn a first rounder but if you’re a little more sanguine then seeing if he falls into round two makes a lot of sense to me. He’s not going to walk onto your team and dominate from day one but he does have a fantastic chance to grow into a top playmaker who’s linked at the hip to a hot young quarterback.

Thanks for reading.

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Tom Kislingbury

Contributor at Dynasty League Football

Being from England Tom only discovered American Football in the late 90s. From there he's gone from casual defender to devoted obsessive and likes to delve into deep data primarily about defensive players. He spends his days trying to pretend the spreadsheets and graphs he makes about football are actually work for his day job. No-one is fooled.

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