2018 Rookie Profile: Rashaad Penny, RB San Diego State

Rashaad Penny isn’t a player who entered the 2017 season on many lists of top players at the running back position, but the San Diego State star impressed at every juncture on his way to a Heisman finalist campaign. Penny went from an afterthought (even in many devy leagues) to a top option in rookie drafts this spring in just a few short months.

What caused this meteoric rise? Let’s investigate.

COLLEGE STATS

Statistics from sports-reference.com.

He was not a highly-touted recruit. Coming out of Norwalk High School in Norwalk, California, Penny (three stars) was ranked just the 60th-best running back in the nation and 944th-best prospect overall, according to 247Sports’ Composite score. As such, Penny chose to stay somewhat close to home and committed to San Diego State on January 4th, 2014.

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San Diego State’s running game has always been extremely productive. In fact, the Aztecs’ leading rusher has rushed for at least 1,200 yards and 15 touchdowns in every season this decade. However, as we’ll get to later, Penny’s production and efficiency lapped his peers who wore the same uniform.

Year	Player	Att	Yards	YPC	TD
2010	Ronnie Hillman	262	1532	5.8	17
2011	Ronnie Hillman	311	1711	5.5	19
2012	Adam Muema	237	1458	6.2	16
2013	Adam Muema	256	1244	4.9	15
2014	Donnel Pumphrey	276	1867	6.8	20
2015	Donnel Pumphrey	309	1653	5.3	17
2016	Donnel Pumphrey	349	2133	6.1	17
2017	Rashaad Penny	289	2248	7.8	23

Because of the statistical prowess of many Aztec runners, Penny started his collegiate career slowly while playing behind the highly productive Donnel Pumphrey and barely saw the field during his freshman campaign.

Penny demonstrated his explosive play-making ability as a sophomore on limited touches, but didn’t truly burst onto the scene until his junior season. He was still mired behind Pumphrey in 2016, but was given more opportunities in the run, pass, and return game. Capitalizing on his newfound chances, Penny rushed for over 1,000 yards and 11 touchdowns on just 134 carries, while also demonstrating noticeable receiving chops. But it wasn’t until Pumphrey declared that Penny broke out, although he was well worth the wait. Penny totaled nearly 2,400 yards and 25 touchdowns in 2017, contributing in all facets of the game and finishing fifth in Heisman voting.

He closed the season on an absolute tear, rushing for over 200 yards in each of this season’s last five games and scoring 15 total touchdowns in those contests. Averaging 22 carries a game over that span, he averaged 10.3 yards per carry over that 110-carry sample. For the season, Penny and Stanford RB Bryce Love were the only two running backs to surpass 2,000 rushing yards, with Penny leading the entire NCAA by 130 yards.

Penny also broke a record set by Hall of Famer and former San Diego State running back Marshall Faulk in November of this year. Faulk held the school record for total yards in a game with 422 before Penny and the Aztecs took on Nevada in November. Penny totaled 429 – the ninth-highest total for a single game in FBS history. He became the second player ever to have a kick, punt, and rushing touchdown in a single game – and the first to accomplish the same feat by scoring two rushing touchdowns. Amazingly enough, Penny also had a 70-yard touchdown run called back due to holding.

Additionally, Penny is tied for the NCAA record for career kick return touchdowns with seven. The players he’s tied with – C.J. Spiller and Tyron Carrier – are 20 pounds and 50 pounds lighter than Penny, respectively. Penny, who had never returned a punt before this season, took his first career punt return back for a 70-yard touchdown. College teams try to get the ball in the hands of their best playmakers as often as possible, and Penny fit this mold for the Aztecs.

THE FILM

There’s a lot to like about Penny. His build, leg drive, balance, and ability to handle a significant workload all stand out – but Penny’s vision is his calling card. Upon turning on Penny’s tape, it’s immediately evident that he benefited from an offensive line that opened massive holes for him. Because of this, he had a lot of long touchdown runs where he was untouched, but many of those runs relied on him making a cut in the backfield.

His blocking was inconsistent at times, occasionally forcing Penny to create for himself behind the line of scrimmage at other times, which he proved adept at. For a 220-pound back, he doesn’t run through smaller defenders or demonstrate power regularly, but he has terrific balance through contact, which is one of the traits I view as crucial to the success at the running back position.

In order to be a foundation running back in today’s NFL, players at the position need to demonstrate functional ability in the passing game. Penny, while not necessarily known for his receiving prowess, has some surprising underlying stats in this area. Here’s where raw statistics can be deceiving: his modest 19 reception season underlies his surprisingly diverse route tree, alignment, and efficiency in this area.

Keegan Abdoo of ACTAsports studied this year’s draft-eligible running backs over the last two seasons, and found the following: Penny’s average depth of target (aDOT) is second in this class after Nyheim Hines, who spent the 2016 season at wide receiver, while Penny lined up out wide, in the slot, or at tight end more than any other running back in this class (again, except Hines). We want our running backs to be diverse, versatile weapons in multiple facets of the game, and Penny certainly qualifies here – especially when considering his value as a return man.

Penny doesn’t have many holes in his game, but he’s not a perfect prospect. There are certain things he could stand to improve upon – he runs somewhat upright and doesn’t have elite bend or agility – but his shortcomings in those areas are nitpicking more than identifying major flaws. However, his one weakness worth mentioning is a significant one: his pass protection is pretty brutal at this point, and without adequate pass protection, coaches may not trust running backs to be on the field in clear passing situations. However, his issues in pass protection are almost all technique, and his effort is inconsistent but rarely poor. Therefore, it’s encouraging that one of his biggest knocks is coachable and fixable.

MEASURABLES

Penny’s Combine has to be considered a success. At 5’11”, 220 pounds, he ran faster than expected; his 4.46 40-yard dash was in the 83rd percentile of all running backs, a terrific number for a back of his size.

He opted out of agility drills, so we aren’t able to gather a complete picture of his athletic profile, although he isn’t the most agile runner on tape. Particularly perplexing were his explosion numbers – his vertical jump landed him in just the 25th percentile, while his broad jump (65th) demonstrate his adequate, yet unspectacular burst.

Penny’s athletic comparisons are not as well known. Javorius Allen, Terrance West, Lamar Miller, and Bernard Pierce show up on his comparisons list, per MockDraftable. This isn’t particularly encouraging, but again, Penny opted against participating in agility drills at the Combine, painting an incomplete picture of his athletic profile.

DYNASTY VALUE/PLAYER COMPS

Penny’s value is climbing. Among our rookie rankers, Penny comes in at the fifth spot – as high as third overall and as low as 12th. His April rookie ADP is fifth as well – across ten different mocks, he was selected as high as second and as low as ninth. Penny is a sure-fire first rounder in rookie drafts this summer, barring an unexpected freefall in the NFL draft.

His startup ADP is 64th overall, placing him in the early sixth round. Because of his struggles in pass protection, I doubt he’ll be a three-down back upon entering the league, although I think he’s capable of developing into a workhorse who doesn’t leave the field. Until then, I don’t see RB1 upside but think he could settle into the RB2 range between the fourth and seventh round of startup drafts in the years to come. Ultimately, his landing spot will go a long way in deciding where he should be drafted.

Penny is a hard player to find a perfect comparison for. I view Penny as a mix of Jordan Howard and Jay Ajayi. He strikes me as a similar runner to Howard, but Penny’s receiving ability trumps Howard’s by a significant margin and more closely resembles Ajayi’s. At the same time, Penny isn’t as violent a runner as Ajayi is. All three are 220-plus pounds and excel between the tackles. Penny is a little unique in that he offers added value in the return game.

CONCLUSION

Penny’s detractors point to the level of competition he faced, his limited receiving statistics, the success of other recent San Diego State running backs (who struggled in the NFL), and his woes in pass protection as reasons to avoid him in rookie drafts. I’ve attempted to debunk the false narratives surrounding each of these reasons in this piece, as Penny is an exciting prospect that checks many boxes that I look for in collegiate running backs.

Agree/disagree? Reach out to me on Twitter at @jnammour24 or comment below!

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