Charting the 2018 Wide Receiver Class: Courtland Sutton
Courtland Sutton is one of the most polarizing wide receiver prospects in this year’s draft class. He is one of the few rookie wide receivers who have the size and athleticism to be a true WR1 for an NFL team. There are many draft analysts and dynasty leaguers who are fans of his skill set and there are some analysts who don’t recognize him as a high-end wide receiver prospect. The jury is still out whether he should be considered one of the top players in this draft, but one thing everyone can agree on is that Sutton has a lot of potential.
One of the biggest criticisms of Sutton’s profile is that he didn’t lead his team in receiving this year. He trailed Trey Quinn in receptions, yards, and touchdowns. Although both players were tremendous assets to SMU’s offense, it’s easy to tell that these are two totally different athletes who played in two totally different roles.
Sutton can create separation from defenders by using his size and athleticism. In comparison, Quinn is a highly efficient player who is an incredible route runner and has the ability to make amazing highlight reel contested catches. Both of these wide receivers are good in different ways. Sutton can take the top off the defense and beat defenders in the open field by easily out-jumping them to catch the ball at its highest point. The threat of him breaking loose while running deep routes opens things up for other wide receivers on the field.
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Quinn is capable of beating defensive backs with alarming footwork and superior quickness. His ability to create separation in tight spaces aided Sutton’s ability to work over the middle, and due to this, he inherited more single coverage situations. This was truly a team effort as both receivers assisted in each other’s production.
The answer to our problems isn’t always in the “counting stats” and sometimes we have to determine how efficient a player was before we can label them a marginal productive asset at the college level. By grading a player’s efficiency, we can decide if a player did the best they could with their opportunities or if they continuously squandered their chances, limiting their ability to be a hyper-productive player.
Even though Sutton was second on the team in receiving production, he still commanded a 26.49 percent target share, which is considered pretty good since SMU’s passing offense fueled three wide receivers with over 800 yards receiving. He also managed to reel in 52.71 percent of the passes thrown his way, making him a very dependable asset. This is a very subjective stat because we don’t know how many of those targets were deemed catchable. His 8.4 yards per target provides the notion that he’s capable of burning the secondary for long gains and able to work his way through the middle of the defense to catch passes in the short to intermediate sectors of the field.
In 2015, Sutton ranked third among all freshman wide receivers with a 32.90 percent market share of SMU’s passing offense. The following year he led all sophomores with a 39.33 percent market share. Due to the emergence of Trey Quinn, Sutton’s share of the passing offense dipped to 28.38 percent which is still well above average. The most encouraging thing to note about Sutton’s college production is that he initially broke out as a freshman and continued to be a key focal point in SMU’s offense for the remainder of his career. Players who breakout during the early stages of their collegiate career are more likely to break out during their first few years in the NFL.
At SMU, the opportunities were few and far between when it came to playing against Power Five competition. Baylor (twice), Texas Christian University (twice) and Texas A&M were the only Power Five schools he played against during his collegiate career. This is concerning because he doesn’t have much experience playing against top flight competition and could cause him to slowly acclimate to the speed at the NFL level. We don’t know this for sure, but to totally ignore the lack of competition Sutton competed against at the collegiate level would kill the objectivity of the scouting process.
*The chart above is derived from a six-game sample, equating to 140 routes ran.
Fades, posts, and curls were the main routes he ran in college. SMU would run him on a lot of deeper routes early in games which forced the opposing defense to compensate by making the defensive backs lineup a few extra yards off the ball, creating an extra cushion for Sutton to run underneath routes. SMU’s offense would then test the defense by running Sutton on multiple curls and comeback routes. Technically, we can consider deep fade and post routes as Sutton’s ‘fastball’ – and curls, comebacks, slants, and outs as his off-speed pitches.
*The chart above is derived from a six-game sample, equating to 140 routes ran.
Sutton was targeted on 53.33 percent of his fade routes and 64 percent of his post routes. His ability to stretch the field created mismatches for the other receivers on the offense, making it easier for SMU’s quarterback, Ben Hicks, to distribute the ball to different receivers when the play call was dialed up for Sutton to stretch the field. He also didn’t run many flat, comeback and out routes, therefore the 100 percent target rate for those three routes are more of an outlier than an absolute. Slants and curl routes are money makers for Sutton because his size and athleticism allow him to easily get a step ahead of most defensive backs and create additional separation by using his body to shield the defender away from the football.
*The chart above is derived from a six-game sample, equating to 140 routes ran.
FADE
Fade routes are more of a high-risk, high-reward option in the passing game and more often than not, most of these passes generally end up incomplete. It’s a harder route to convert for quarterbacks because the extra distance creates more room for error. Sutton was able to convert 41.67 percent of the passes thrown his way while running fade routes which is still very good considering a large portion of those targets were deemed uncatchable. He’s a physical specimen, as he can stretch the field and out jump multiple defenders to catch the ball at its highest point. His ability to track the ball while it’s in the air helps him convert a lot of his deeper routes.
POST
Like the fade route, the post route is generally a lower percentage play. However, with Sutton, it’s a gamechanger for SMU’s offense. He has the ability to create separation from the defender once he makes his initial cut on the post route and there is generally enough space for the quarterback to hit him in stride. His size makes it hard for defenders to make up the ground once Sutton creates his separation, because it’s hard to get around his large body once the ball is in the air. Slant routes usually work in the same fashion for Sutton. After he does his initial release off the line of scrimmage, he creates separation with his cut and his sheer size makes it hard for the defender to gain enough ground to prevent him from catching the ball.
CURL, COMEBACK, AND OUT
It’s not the smoothest transition, but Sutton displays a lot of urgency when it comes to getting in and out of his breaks. When in conjunction with his size, his ability to break laterally or back towards the football allows him to create more separation from the defender. Routes don’t have to perfect, but they do have to be effective. His size, short area quickness, and his urgency to break off his route allow him to win on the field. This should transition to the next level because he has multiple ways to beat defenders.
Curl and comeback routes were his bread and butter in the “short game” because after he beat the opposing defense on a few deep routes, the defensive backs would provide extra cushion for him to work underneath the coverage. It’s usually hard for him to avoid rounding out some of his routes because his size and short area quickness disrupt his ability to make the plant, step and drive to create the proper cut on his out route. Over time, this should get ironed out through repetition and should only get more efficient as he develops.
CORNER
This is one of the harder routes to convert on the field because it’s a tough throw for the quarterback and the coverage has to be just right to even consider attempting the pass. Sutton does a good job at making his cut, flipping his hips and finding the open spot in the defense to make it easier for his quarterback to attempt the pass. Usually, the safeties are too concerned covering the deep third of the field to prevent Sutton from breaking off any deep routes which creates plenty of cushion for him to find a hole in the defense after his break on the corner route. Not many wide receiver prospects can run corner routes, and the fact that Sutton can consistently run them with success creates an added dimension in his game.
SUMMARY
I’m not going to beat around the bush here, Sutton is my number one receiver in this draft class and unless he’s caught in a massive dog fighting ring or spoils the ending to the next Rocky movie (Creed 2), he is going to remain etched in stone at the top of my rookie wide receiver rankings. Some draft analysts are mocking him in the second round, but I believe he will be an easy first-round selection come draft day. I don’t consider him the same level of prospect as Julio Jones or A.J. Green when they were coming out for the draft, but I do regard him as a top-five pick in this year’s rookie drafts.
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