Devil’s Tradevocate

Twitter, polls, and dynasty trades are the perfect combination to see the up to date value of players being traded on the open market. The trade itself shows what one person is willing to trade for another asset, and the poll will indicate how close the trade is based off of “market value”.

In this series, Dan Sainio and Nathan Powell will evaluate trades that appeared lopsided (65% or more votes on one side) and one of us will state the case for why it was a lopsided trade while the other takes the devil’s advocate point of view, arguing for the side with lesser amount of vote.

Trade (superflex):

Michael Thomas (67%)

for 

Teddy Bridgewater, Allen Robinson and Tyler Eifert (33%)

Why Twitter is right (Dan):

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I’m surprised this one is only 67/33. Michael Thomas is quietly having a very strong season, albeit with TD numbers that would make Julio Jones scoff. Through 12 weeks, Thomas finds himself in the top ten in targets, catches, and yards. The one thing holding him back is the TD production that the backfield has seemingly taken over.

Drew Brees looks to be slowing down a bit, but Thomas is approaching the level of not necessarily needing a QB to lean on, as we may have previously thought. “Bad” Mike Thomas, as I used to call him, is a borderline first round start up pick, and I don’t see that changing.

On the other side of this deal, we have a quarterback who is a giant question mark, a receiver who will be looking for a new home coming off a major injury, and a tight end that many consider “done.” Teddy is a great story, and I’m a big fan, but he doesn’t carry much value these days. The next piece, Tyler Eifert, wishes he could be as healthy as Jordan Reed. I’m entirely done with Eifert, as I don’t see how he ever gets healthy. He has yet to play a full NFL season and by the time the 2017 NFL wraps up, he will have missed more games in his five NFL seasons than he has played. That’s horrid.

ARob is the only attractive piece on this side of the deal, and he’s a third round pick at this point in time with his future up in the air. Historically, players that move to new teams struggle and I’m not convinced he’s anything more than the garbage time producer we have come to know. This deal is an easy win for the new Michael Thomas owner.

Devil’s Tradevocate (Nathan):

We’ve covered this a couple of times on Devil’s Tradevocate, but this is another example of the Allen Robinson hate going too far. Robinson is a free agent after the season, so he is no longer connected to Blake Bortles. From a talent perspective, I think Robinson and Thomas are on a similar level and one could argue the uncertainty of Robinson’s future is better for fantasy than Thomas’ with an aging Drew Brees and run-heavy offense.

Along with Robinson, you get what amounts to basically lottery tickets at quarterback and tight end. Neck, back, elbow and ankle injuries have all slowed Tyler Eifert’s career, but he is one of the best touchdown scorers in the NFL when on the field. Teddy Bridgewater had an injury that made it unclear that he’d ever play again, but he’s back to being active and if/when he reclaims the starting job in Minnesota, that in itself has value in superflex.

Trade:

JuJu Smith-Schuster and Tevin Coleman (67%)

for

Demaryius Thomas and 2018 first (33%)

Why Twitter is right (Nathan):

JuJu Smith-Schuster is quickly becoming one of the best wideouts in the NFL at only 21 years old. Despite not being the number one wideout in Pittsburgh, he will still put up very good numbers as he will never face double-teams.

Breaking it down to smaller parts, I’d definitely prefer Smith-Schuster to Thomas at this stage. Then it is Tevin Coleman versus the 2018 first, which is a bit harder to judge without the placement of the pick, but let’s assume it is a mid first. Coleman has shown legitimate NFL talent in his three years and could escape the backfield duo with Devonta Freeman after the 2018 season.

Devil’s Tradevocate (Dan):

This is an interesting one. JuJu has ascended up the ranks, proving the USC WR narrative and many haters (myself included) wrong. Playing alongside the best receiver in the NFL certainly helps, but it also tempers my expectations a bit as I don’t think he could survive as a team’s WR1. He also has to worry about the troubled freak of nature, Martavis Bryant. Long term I think he’ll be just fine, but I wouldn’t be expecting top 24 numbers.

Coleman is someone I have always liked, believe he can be a full time starter. Freeman being out has let us see Tevin handle the full workload, and he has been… just okay. Nothing special, but he’s also not used to getting this much work. I view him as a solid RB2 moving forward in dynasty.

DT is a player I was high on prior to this season, but I tried to move him in most places as I didn’t believe in the Denver QB situation. I still think DT has plenty left in the tank, but his situation couldn’t be any worse. Tebow would be an upgrade at this point.

The 2018 first rounder is the question mark here. If it’s a top five pick, or a late pick, it changes the deal to either side. Calling it a random first, or mid-first, would have me value this trade as dead even. DT and JuJu are in the same ballpark for me, and Tevin is worth a mid-first. I know I am supposed to argue that my side wins, but I truly believe that this is a coin flip.

Trade:

Ezekiel Elliott, Jordy Nelson, George Kittle (70%)

for

Todd Gurley, Jason Witten, Ed Dickson (30%)

Why Twitter is right (Dan):

The “throw in” value is kind of gross here, but I believe Twitter got this right. We can start with the RBs, and basically say that they are a wash. Gurley is back and performing quite well every week, possibly even giving him the edge over Zeke. I have them as basically even, considering Zeke remains in the best situation even though Sean McVay has brought new life to the Rams organization. Running back is… back!

The deciding factor in this trade is most definitely Jordy Nelson. I can’t imagine the Packers will do anything with him aside from restructuring. With Rodgers under center, Jordy has the upside of a WR1/2 with the cost of a WR4. He is above and beyond the value of the dad runner extraordinaire, and 30 year old back up Ed Dickson. George Kittle is simply icing on the cake, as we did get to see a little bit of what he brings to the table, and he looks… capable. Yea, let’s go with that. In the end, Twitter is right on the money here and Jordy Nelson is the difference.

Devil’s Tradevocate (Nathan):

One of the biggest mistaken assumptions from dynasty players today is the perceived “safety” of Ezekiel Elliott after his suspension is over. Todd Gurley has no such off the field issues and is producing points for you now down the stretch. Jordy Nelson still has talent, but it’s clear he has been usurped by Davante Adams as the Green Bay WR1 and Nelson is completely depended entirely on Aaron Rodgers being healthy. The other three assets have little to no dynasty value and have no bearing on my opinion of this trade.

Trade:

Adam Thielen and 2018 mid first (74%)

for

Amari Cooper (26%)

Why Twitter is right (Nathan):

Twitter has been known to overreact to big performances from players who go from fringe roster players to highly valued dynasty assets, but that is not the case with Adam Thielen. Thielen looks to be a WR2 at worst and continues to put up big numbers with Case Keenum at quarterback.

The mid ’18 first bridges the gap between the over performing Adam Thielen and the underperforming Amari Cooper. Now, I don’t think the gap is as large as the vote may suggest, but I would definitely take the Thielen side on a competitive young team.

Devil’s Tradevocate (Dan):

Man, could 2017 have gone any worse for Amari Cooper so far? Let’s start with the fact that Derek Carr just simply isn’t any good, but he can’t entirely be to blame for Cooper’s struggles. Concentration remains an issue as his drops continue to stack up, but as the moderately talented Jeff Miller once said “drops only matter if the player stops getting targets.” Cooper is in the top 20 in targets amongst WRs. We can put the drop narrative to bed. He’s also only 23 years old, four years younger than the booming Adam Thielen.

Thielen is a guy I spent most of the last few weeks of 2016, and the off-season, buying. I’m a believer, and he’s most definitely in the discussion of top 15 or 16 WR. I still view Amari as an elite talent, and the best player on his offense. Thielen is a great player, but finds himself in a rather crowded situation. When the squad is healthy, he’ll have Stefon Diggs, Kyle Rudolph, Dalvin Cook, Laquon Treadwell, and potentially Jerick McKinnon out there as well. Again, I believe he’s very good but that talent is going to spread targets relatively thin when everyone is healthy. Adding the first to Thielen makes this relatively close, but I still would prefer Cooper here. The recency bias in this poll is telling. Time to go shopping for Amari.

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