Ezekiel Elliott: Buy, Sell or Hold?
Big news dropped when Ezekiel Elliott was handed a six game suspension this week, hurting a lot of fantasy owner’s teams in the process. We knew it was coming, but we didn’t know when. It was like a slow falling knife and we were just watching it drop, waiting for it to make impact on it’s final destination. To be clear, no one was 100 percent sure whether Elliott was going to be served the suspension or not, but it was most definitely in the realm of possibilities.
A lot of owners are trying to make a push for a playoff spot and the loss of Elliott in their weekly lineups is a devastating blow to their team’s ability to put forth a competitive lineup each week. With that being said, there are a lot of panicking fantasy owners who are looking to make a deal to improve their team for the rest of the season.
The price of a player usually reduces when they get slapped with a suspension or get arrested. A lot of fantasy owners are trying to scrape together whatever they can on the trade market to fill the void that was lost when Elliott got suspended. This will create opportunities for other fantasy owners to potentially buy him at a discount or sell off a veteran player for more than what they would’ve received a few weeks ago.
[am4show have=’g1;’ guest_error=’sub_message’ user_error=’sub_message’ ]
At Ohio State, Elliott rushed for 3,961 yards and 43 touchdowns while also catching 58 passes for 449 yards and one touchdown. During his junior season he finished the year with a 35.95 percent market share of Ohio State’s offense, ranking ninth in the nation amongst collegiate running backs. He continued to impress at the combine by running a 4.47 40-yard dash at 225-pounds. His athletic metrics solidified him as an elite draft prospect, which provided the Dallas Cowboys the confidence to pull the trigger on him with their fourth overall selection in the 2016 NFL Draft.
Elliott didn’t waste anytime proving to everyone that he is one of the best running backs in the league, by rushing for over 100 yards in seven games last year. In fantasy, he averaged 21.79 PPR points per game, surpassing the 20-point mark in eight of them. His success continued into his 2017 season when he rushed for 690 yards and six touchdowns while catching 19 passes for two touchdowns in seven games. Like last year, he’s been a tremendous asset for fantasy owners, averaging 22.14 PPR points per game.
Ever since his first inception into the league, his dynasty value has climbed to unfathomable proportions with his highest ADP rating jumping to 2 in June of 2017. The lowest his ADP has ever been was in February 2016 before he was even drafted by the Cowboys. He’s a cornerstone piece for many dynasty teams, making him a very valuable commodity. In-season trade value is different than ADP value, because during a startup draft the owners are looking at long term player value. During the season, certain events could factor into the cost of a player like team need, end of season fire sales and the player’s current situation.
The ebbs and flows of the season are different for every owner in the league – some might be trying to make the playoffs, and others might be trying to get rid of assets to build for the future. With that being said, Elliott’s price tag before the suspension was about as high as any player could get due to his age, situation and consistent fantasy production. It would take a first-born child, two unicorns and a box of Fruity Pebbles to acquire him via trade in dynasty.
Current Zeke Owners
Don’t panic if you currently own Elliott. The worst thing you could do is sell him at a discount for a lesser talent so you can still make a run for the playoffs. I understand at this stage in the season, there’s a lot on the line, but we need to take a deep breath and look at all of our options before making any radical decisions. It doesn’t matter how deep your roster is, losing Elliott is going to sting hard and could impact a few of your head to head match ups.
If you need to make a move to improve your weekly lineup for the rest of the season, then I would recommend trading away other assets like draft picks or another player not named Elliott. He’s not getting the Pete Rose treatment, it’s just a six game suspension, so therefore he will be back to help your team sooner than you think.
If you need to sell him, I would not let the other owners in your league dictate his value. Instead, try and get what you want and try to obtain top-ten startup pick value while negotiating a trade. Making the push for the playoffs is important, but it’s not worth losing out on a perennial talent like Elliott just because you’re in desperation mode and need stop-gap for the next six weeks.
Non Zeke Owners
Now is the time to capitalize and take advantage of the Elliott owner in your league who might be currently anxious with their new weekly lineup. Be aggressive and send an offer to the owner as soon as possible to see if Elliott is obtainable via trade. Don’t low-ball the other owner, because it will severely reduce your chances at receiving a counter offer. Instead, package a few high scoring veteran players along with some draft picks that could help the other owner’s team in the short term. There’s no harm in trying, the worst thing that could happen is a trade rejection.
Win-Now Teams
Now might not be the time to buy for a team currently trying to make the playoffs, because it may take assets that you are currently using to make your playoff push. If you can afford it, sure send over an offer, but your eyes should be solely on winning your league at this point. Be careful selling Zeke on the trade market, because other owners will try to capitalize on his recent suspension by trying to obtain him at a reduce cost. I would exhaust all other options before selling Elliott.
Rebuilding Teams
He’s a buy if you don’t own him, because it might be a longtime before his price ever gets any lower. If you currently own him, then he’s definitely a hold, because you weren’t looking to make a run for the playoffs and the lost points could potentially help your draft position in next year’s rookie draft.
By taking a quick look at DLF’s Trade Finder, it’s easy to see how Elliott is being valued in different dynasty leagues on My Fantasy League. Recently he was traded for Alex Collins, Dalvin Cook and two 2018 second round picks. In another deal he was traded for Christian McCaffrey, Eric Ebron, 2019 second round pick, 2019 third round pick and a 2019 fourth round pick. Both trades occurred after the news broke concerning his suspension.
These deals provide a benchmark to what we could potentially offer in a trade. From the looks of those two deals, the winning formula appears to be a high end prospect coupled with a veteran who is currently producing quality fantasy points along with some draft picks. Keep in mind, every league is different and it might take more capital than what it’s worth to pry him away from his current owner.
Elliott is one of the most polarizing players in dynasty and he could turn your franchise around just by having him on your roster. I’m not worried at all by the suspension. He’s going to be back in six games, and will be producing again at an elite level before we know it. I believe all dynasty owners should be trying their hardest to acquire him.
[/am4show]
- 2024 NFL Draft: What We Expect for Day 3 - April 27, 2024
- 2024 NFL Draft: What We Expect for Day 2 - April 26, 2024
- 2024 NFL Draft: What We Expect for Day 1 - April 25, 2024
