Adrian Peterson: Buy, Sell or Hold?
We are about to embark the playoff-push-season, one of the great times of the year for dynasty leaguers. Teams that are in the hunt for the playoffs are dealing away young prospects for proven veterans to help them get over the hump. The rebuilding teams are also trying to acquire draft picks and young players by trading away their older assets that are currently deemed as impractical for their team’s rebuild. This might be the easiest time of the year to trade for draft picks, because there are plenty of owners in every league that are willing to mortgage some of their future to make a push for the playoffs.
This is the time to take advantage of the market in your leagues to see if it’s possible to deal any unwanted assets for something you deem more valuable, whether it be for a proven veteran to help you get into the playoffs or a young prospect who could potential help your team in the next few years.
Adrian Peterson is currently a hot button player due to his mega performance last week against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. The Arizona Cardinals desperately needed a running back and they didn’t waste any time by allowing Peterson to handle a full workload in his first game with the team. He accumulated 25.4 PPR fantasy points from 134 rushing yards and two touchdowns last week, which was his best performance since week 11 of 2015. Since then, he only had one other 100-yard game.
A lot of his production was due to the flow of the game. The Cardinals established a commanding lead early in the first half, allowing them to run the ball often to control the clock, increasing Peterson’s opportunities for touches. Tampa Bay also has one of the worst defenses in the NFL, ranking 30th in the league with 403.4 total yards allowed per game and 12th in the league with 101.8 rushing yards per game.
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Last week’s production is more than likely not going to be sustainable for Peterson going forward, but it does present a great sell/buy opportunity for dynasty owners. It’s not every day a 32-year-old player who was once considered one of the top talents in the league, rises from the ashes to take the league by storm. Who knows what Peterson is going to do in the upcoming weeks, but we do know there could be some optimism in the heads of some dynasty leaguers that needs to be exploited before it’s too late.
Whether we like it or not, name caché can add a premium to a player’s stock on the trade market. If anyone could receive an added boost to their price tag due to the familiarity of their name, it would be Peterson. The nostalgia alone from his hyper-productive seasons a few years ago, are enough to get some owners to bite on a trade offer.
Another selling point that could transition to some completed trades would be the recent narrative of Peterson switching teams and finally landing in one of the most optimal situations for his skill sets. He only logged 27 total carries during his four-game span with the New Orleans Saints, and due to his usage, New Orleans might possibly have been the worst place for Peterson to play in. Now that he’s in Arizona, a team that actually needs him, it appears that he could possibly get the workload that he deserves.
This is a dream scenario for a win-now dynasty team that needs another running back and could cause some overzealous owners to overpay to acquire his talents. Owners who are planning to sell him need to take advantage of his current situation and use it as a selling point to try and seduce waffling owners who are on the fence into buying him.
Peterson’s stock in dynasty took a massive hit this season with his dynasty ADP dropping to a 232 average in October. Even though it might be for a limited time, his value is currently on the rise and now might be the best time to sell him. Peterson’s ADP hovered around the 125-130 range from October of 2016 to September of 2017. He’s 32 years old with an extensive injury history and all it takes is one injury to completely diminish is value in dynasty.
David Johnson is expected to be back later this year and he will syphon away a large portion of Peterson’s workload. Don’t forget about Andre Ellington, he is second on the team with 41 passing targets and is a key piece to Arizona’s offense. The selling window is rather short and we know almost exactly when the blinds are going to shut.
Win-Now Teams
Teams that are attempting to make a playoff push need to try to buy him on the cheap. We know that David Johnson is going to be back this season and his production will eventually be reduced in the coming weeks. Peterson is on the tail end of his career and he’s closer to retirement than he is ever becoming a high-end dynasty asset again.
If he’s currently on your roster and you need a little extra gusto in your lineup to make the playoffs, then he’s definitely a hold for you. In this case, ride him until the wheels fall off. Packaging him and a few other pieces for an upgrade at running back or another position would be another option that can be explored. This could allow you to capitalize on his current increase in value while possibly adding more points to your weekly lineup.
Rebuilding Teams
Be aggressive and sell. Every league is different. There are some dynasty owners in this world that would spend a late first round pick for his services and others that are more frugal with their capital that would give a lot less. With that being said, hopefully you know your league well enough what kind of owners you are dealing with. Try to maximize his value in all trade negotiations. The goal here is to obtain draft picks or a young prospect who can add value to your team in the near future.
By using the DLF’s Dynasty Trade Finder you can look at trades from over 3,000 dynasty leagues that are hosted on My Fantasy League. Since his breakout game on Sunday, he has been traded for a second-round rookie pick twice. This is exactly the value you should be going for, because he may never be worth this much ever again in his career. All leagues, owner and trades are different, so results may vary. Peterson could net more or less on the trade market in your league. The best thing to do in this situation is to be aggressive and explore all trade possibilities.
There’s something magical about Adrian Peterson. He always seems to have a way to defy all odds. After having reconstructive knee surgery, he still managed to rush for over 2,000 yards. Logic says that his production will regress to the mean, but it’s not outside the realm of possibilities that he strings a few 100-yard games in the upcoming weeks.
I’m still selling him in my leagues, because I don’t want to be left holding the bag if he gets injured or endures some sort of setback. If I’m still in the hunt for the playoffs, then sure, I’m going to hold him to see if he can help win a few matchups, but I’m still not expecting him to be a long-term asset for my dynasty team. Whether you decide to buy, sell or hold Peterson is a player you need to take a long look at this week.
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