Who is this player you should be buying NOW?!

Woody McClelland

Editor’s Note:  The following article was written by new Member Corner writer Woody McClelland.  Member Corner writers  are passionate DLF followers with a strong interest in developing their writing skills.  We’re happy to offer this uncompensated area to allow them to hone their skills, receive exposure and interact with the our community.  Please be constructive with all comments.  This particular piece was originally submitted on Oct. 7 (important note for this subject player).

During the money stretch of the 2016 season, encompassing the final weeks of the regular season plus the fantasy playoffs (weeks 12 to 16), this player was the RB11 in PPR, making him a low-end RB1 in 12-team leagues. For the last five weeks of the NFL regular season (weeks 13-17), he was number two in the NFL in running back receptions (25) and targets (31) behind only David Johnson (28 and 36), and was the RB7 in PPR.

Returning to the same team with the same offensive coordinator and same quarterback, one might expect this player to be primed to continue his RB1 production into 2017. Yet throughout the off-season, he received no love in the dynasty community, with a dynasty ADP prior to the NFL draft never exceeding #132 overall or RB39.  This despite his team revamping one of the bottom-five 2016 offensive lines in the league while being younger than five of the top six finishing running backs: Johnson, Le’Veon Bell, LeSean McCoy, Demarco Murray, and Devonta Freeman.  Only Ezekiel Elliott was younger.

During free agency, his team replaced its oldest running back with an inefficient back who required ankle surgery. Then, days before he turned 25 years old, his team traded up in the second round to draft his replacement, a sub-par athlete with an extensive injury history but phenomenal on-field production in a Power Five conference and gave him the keys to the three-down role. Unsurprisingly, this back suffered a season-ending injury after the fourth week of the season, leaving the team with only one viable running back pass-catcher.  This player is:  Jerick McKinnon.

Given Pat Shurmur’s history of targeting his running backs, an average of 63 targets/season to his leading running back pass-catcher since he became the St. Louis Rams offensive coordinator in 2009, plus McKinnon’s proven 2016 production in Shurmur’s system once he took over play-calling from Norv Turner mid-season, there is little reason to doubt McKinnon’s ability to reproduce his low-end RB1 production from the most critical stretch of the 2016 fantasy season despite his relatively low touchdown upside. The historical average of four targets/game by Shurmur’s receiving backs has persisted through 2017, as Cook received 16 targets through his four games. Of course, should Latavius Murray not be able to fully recover from his off-season ankle surgery, McKinnon has the upside to eat into Murray’s goal-line work as well.

An age 25 running back primed to be the predominant pass-catcher in the same system where he produced RB1 numbers over an extended stretch less than a season ago? And with the upside to eat into the short-yardage work as well? Sign me up, please!

There are two caveats here. The first is that Sam Bradford is not yet healthy.  This could be seen as a positive, since he was out during most of Dalvin Cook’s time as the starter, has no familiarity with Murray, and plenty of familiarity with McKinnon from last season. But if Bradford remains out for an extended period of time, it could be a stretch to expect McKinnon to repeat his late 2016 production with a different quarterback under center (although Case Keenum still fed Cook 11 targets during the three games in which the two were starters).  Keenum’s time under center thus far seems to be working well for McKinnon. The second caveat is that McKinnon is a free agent in 2018. However, given his relatively young age, little tread on his tires and great metrics, owners should, at the very least, be able to sell him in the off-season for more than it will take to acquire him now.

The fact that McKinnon’s performance prior to the end of last season did not match up with the incredible hype he has received since entering the NFL, largely due to his elite SPARQ athleticism, means that many dynasty owners have already written him off.  According to recent DLF ADP data, his ADP was outside the top-200 overall and as the RB67 (his August ADP was #233 overall and RB 81) due to his mold as a third down back– you can bet that the asking price for McKinnon right now shouldn’t be exorbitant in the dynasty community, despite his production, athleticism and young age.  Even looking back at the start of the 2016 season, which led many in the community to give up on him, his meager 3.4 yards per carry behind one of the worst five offensive lines in the league was nearly twice that of Adrian Peterson’s (1.9 ypc.).  While arguable that Peterson may be washed up, his ADP in PPR leagues was late first round (11.67) and as the RB4 behind only Gurley, Johnson and Elliott.

Consequently, it would be wise to send offers for McKinnon now before Bradford returns and while Murray hasn’t yet shown what he can do away from Oakland’s elite 2016 offensive line. A mid to late 2018 second rounder should be enought to acquire McKinnon without much difficulty, but that price will dramatically increase once he shows off the receiving skills and explosion that made him an RB1 when it mattered most last year. Buy now cheaply while you can!  If you had the foresight to buy or draft him on the cheap – he was going in the 19th and 20th rounds of dynasty high-stakes startup 12-team PPR leagues during the summer – do not make the mistake of “selling high” on him once he explodes.  McKinnon has the talent, opportunity, production and volume that league-winning running backs are made of and the youth that makes players of his pedigree elite dynasty assets.

Look for more from Woody in the Member Corner area soon!

(Data from myfantasyleague.com, fftoday.comdlfstg02.dynastyleaguefootball.com, and footballoutsiders.com)