Time to sell high on Golden Tate?

Woody McClelland Posted On October 21, 2017

Editor’s Note: The following article was written by new Member Corner writer Woody McClelland. Member Corner writers are passionate DLF followers with a strong interest in developing their writing skills. We’re happy to offer this uncompensated area to allow them to hone their skills, receive exposure and interact with our community. Please be constructive with all comments.

Ever since being the top wide receiver on the 2013 world champion Seattle Seahawks (in hindsight, that wide receiver corps doesn’t look so “pedestrian” with Doug Baldwin and Percy Harvin rounding out that season’s starters, does it, Cris Carter?) and signing with the Detroit Lions in free agency to complement Calvin Johnson (Megatron), Golden Tate has been a solid WR2 with WR1 upside. Tate has finished with a floor of 90 catches each of the past three seasons and year-end fantasy season (weeks 1-16) PPR finishes of being the WR12, WR21, and WR17. Despite his horrid 2016 start, where after week five he was only the PPR WR75 after posting a 17/134/0 total over those five weeks, his upside and consistency since have lulled a majority within the fantasy community into believing that his floor is very high. A closer look reveals that it is very possible 2016 was the last top-24 season of Tate’s career.

The beginning of Tate’s 2016 difficulties stemmed from intense competition for targets (despite the retirement of Calvin Johnson) from wide receiver Marvin Jones, tight end Eric Ebron, and especially running back Theo Riddick. From weeks one through five, Tate saw an average of only six targets/game (31 total), which would have put him on pace for 99 over a 16-game season. This total (6.2 targets/game) almost never yields a top-24 fantasy season PPR wide receiver; of the 264 top-24 wide receiver seasons since 2006, only four have finished top-24 averaging 6.2 targets/game or fewer, a rate of only 1.5%, meaning that approximately 99% of wide receivers seeing 6.2 targets/game or fewer in a season will not finish as a top-24 PPR wide receiver that season. Such low production can possibly be buoyed by accompanying double-digit touchdown production, but since Tate scored only 29 touchdowns in his first seven seasons (surpassing five only once since 2012), it is safe to assume that he is more reliant than most on volume to be a top-24 wide receiver fantasy producer. This is particularly relevant given his career arc, as he was never targeted sufficiently in Seattle to be an elite fantasy producer – the paltry 99 target pace he was on from the first five weeks of 2016 represented by far the most he ever saw in a single season in Seattle, where he saw 99 targets in 2013. None of his three seasons in Seattle saw him receive more than 70 targets. Upon arriving in Detroit, despite being the clear number-two wide receiver to Megatron, his role in a much more pass-oriented offense raised his target totals to 143 and 129 in 2014 and 2015 respectively, vaulting him into season-long top-24 wide receiver status.

Despite Tate’s slow 2016 start, elite volume eventually found him as he received 104 targets over his final 11 games (9.5 targets/game) to finish 2016 with 135 targets. This provided plenty enough opportunity for him to catapult from WR75 after week five to WR17 eleven weeks later. What changed?

Firstly, beginning in week six, both Ebron and Riddick missed time with injury; Ebron missed weeks five through seven with ankle and knee injuries and Riddick was on the injury report for ten of the final 11 regular season games with ankle and wrist injuries, missing weeks six, seven and 14-17. Additionally, Jones suffered a hamstring injury in week three and a thigh injury in week twelve that kept him out of week thirteen. As many will recall, running back Ameer Abdullah suffered a Lisfranc fracture in week two and missed the remainder of the season.

The combination of both Ebron and Riddick out (beginning week six) with Jones’ injury left Tate as the predominantly healthy starting wide receiver, and his targets massively increased as a result. Tate’s 2016 target splits with Riddick are particularly telling: 71 in the seven games Riddick either missed or left early due to injury (10.1 per game) versus 64 in the other nine games (7.1 per game). The first projects to 162 seasonal targets, while the second projects to only 114 — a massive 48-target seasonal difference.

Thus far, these deficiencies have been masked to start 2017 despite Jones and Riddick starting the season healthy. The Lions’ first four opponents (Cardinals, Giants, Falcons, Vikings) had elite perimeter cornerbacks who refused to chase Tate into the slot, preferring instead to shadow Jones on the outside. This essentially ensured Tate did not have to face opponents’ top defenders. As the Lions’ perimeter CB schedule lightens, it is increasingly more likely that teams will focus fewer top resources on the perimeter wide receivers and more on Tate (32 targets in his first four games), particularly because the Lions started 3-1. As this shift happens, the factors from 2016 that led to a paucity of targets are likely to re-emerge (especially if a now healthy Abdullah begins seeing more targets), lowering Tate’s production and dynasty value.

As a result, now is an optimal time to sell high on Tate while he is still being viewed as a can’t miss/high floor WR2 rather than as a player with a low touchdown ceiling facing competition for targets who will enter his age-30 season in 2018 (the final season of his current contract) and has only $2.4 million in dead money for 2018 compared to the $10+ million dead cap money from each of his first four seasons in Detroit. The PPR WR22 (WR27 in points per game) after five weeks, the Lions’ week seven bye after a solid performance against New Orleans in week six provides owners a window to sell high on Tate between now and week eight (presuming his shoulder injury is not serious). Owners should not sell low, but if you can get comparable WR2 value for him, package him with a starter to land a WR1 or a WR2 several years younger than Tate, or (if you are a contender with sufficient wide receiver depth) trade him for an elite aging quarterback (i.e. Drew Brees or Tom Brady) and a later round pick (i.e. 2018 third/fourth-rounder) you can improve your team both now and in the years to come.

(Data from myfantasyleague.com, the NFL injury report, and spotrac.com)