Camp Notes, Volume Ten: New England Patriots

Curtis Patrick Posted On August 18, 2017

Dynasty fantasy football is our beloved stripped-down approximation of the NFL. We are the head coaches and general managers of our teams, choosing who stays or goes, and who plays or sits. NFL Training Camps are perhaps the best opportunity we have on the dynasty calendar to project how useful our assets will be in the coming season, particularly when it comes to managing the bottom third of our roster. The better you know the rosters of every NFL team, the more prepared you’ll be to execute the corresponding dynasty moves when camp news breaks. I’m mining all the beat reports, team websites, and post-practice press conferences to bring you a comprehensive overview of what’s going on this summer in all 32 training camps.

New England Patriots

Our tenth stop on the 2017 DLF Training Camp Tour is with the New England Patriots. The Patriots somehow managed to improve an already dynamic offense this off-season with the addition of Brandin Cooks and improved depth at running back and tight end. The question in Foxborough isn’t how many games the Patriots will win, it’s will they even lose?

New England ranked fourth in the league in passing yards despite playing their first four games without Tom Brady. A full season from Brady is an exciting proposition, now with Cooks at his disposal and a fully healthy Rob Gronkowski. The team lost LeGarrette Blount and his 18 rushing touchdowns to free agency, but replaced him with essentially a younger, more versatile version of himself in Mike Gillislee.

screen shot 2017 08 17 at 17.09.16

New England rookies reported on July 24 and veterans have been in camp since July 26.

Brady is an extremely enticing win-now dynasty asset as he appears to be set for a huge season. His age (40) and the presence of Jimmy Garoppolo are keeping his value depressed and should make him attainable win-now trade target in many leagues. Brady maintains in nearly every interview that he plans on playing several more seasons, and they should be high-end QB1 seasons as long as he has this complement of weapons at his disposal.

While Garoppolo has looked like he has NFL starting quarterback talent in real games, he’s actually had an up and down camp this year. In the white-blue scrimmage at the end of week two of camp he was just 14-36 against the Patriots second team defense. There has been a clear theme though, as the team looks to keep Garoppolo interested and prepared; he’s been getting significant time with the starters. He may not be rostered in your league, but should be owned because of his immense upside in the high-powered offense if Brady were to go down.

Running back is shaping up to be a mess for fantasy purposes, thanks to Gillislee’s early camp hamstring injury. His absence has opened the door for every other back on the roster to take snaps with the first team. We even saw Branden Bolden get his turn in the first preseason game. If Gillislee is not healthy for the beginning of the season, this looks like a true committee, whereas the expectation prior had been that he would secure the early down and goal-line work. I have not been able to find any reports suggesting when Gillislee might return, only that he continues to miss practice and work only on the conditioning field.

Cooks has shown immediate chemistry with Brady in practice, particularly in red zone drills. Still just 23, Cooks’ long term dynasty value may have increased with the move to New England, now that he’s assured to have Garoppolo throwing him the ball when Brady hangs up his cleats. In New Orleans, there was no clear plan after Drew Brees.

The real star of camp in the wide receiver room has been Chris Hogan. He’s listed as a starter and has been the primary deep target throughout camp. He’s scored touchdowns of 50 yards or longer in joint sessions with the Jacksonville Jaguars and the Houston Texans. Hogan is not going to be a volume player, but has weekly WR1 upside due to his big play ability. You could much worse for your dynasty WR5 or WR6 as a bye week fill-in or rotational flex player this season, and Hogan is essentially free in most leagues right now.

Gronkowski is healthy and coming off a season where he posted the most impressive air yards and yards-per-catch stats of his career, albeit in limited work. Teams will not be able to bracket Gronkowski this season due to the over-the-top abilities of Cooks and Hogan. If he gives us 16 games I think we could see his career year in 2017. Gronkowski scored six touchdowns (that’s not a typo) in a joint practice session with the Jacksonville Jaguars. The Patriots replaced Martellus Bennett with Dwayne Allen this off-season, but the swap has not proved to be a home run quite yet. Allen struggled in mightily in minicamp, although recent reports have been slightly more positive.

Possible Cuts (among dynasty relevant players): Dwayne Allen

Projected ADP Risers

Players Who Will Rise 1 or more rounds in startup ADP by the end of the 2017 Season: Chris Hogan

Projected ADP Fallers

Players Who Will Fall 1 or more rounds in startup ADP by the end of the 2017 Season: Dion Lewis

Waiver Wire Watch List (players with ADP >240): none