This is the next installment of the series where we take two players of similar value and ADP, offer some insight on each, and ultimately decide which one we prefer. So far in the rookie vs rookie portion of this series, Adam Tzikas covered Mike Williams vs Corey Davis with Mike Valverde, Benton McDonald went over D’onta Foreman vs Christian McCaffrey against Valverde again, Bruce Matson dove into Wayne Gallman vs Alvin Kamara in a battle with Rob Willette and lastly our fantastic editor and writer James Simpson weighed in on Dalvin Cook vs Leonard Fournette, debating against Mo Brewington.
I’ve decided to go deeper down the ADP list and attempt to mine for some value in comparing a couple of third round wide receivers with immediately adjacent ADPs. ArDarius Stewart checks in at 27th overall and Josh Reynolds checks in at 28th overall according to our most recent rookie ADP data. I have a very strong preference between the two, and will offer all the reasoning that got me there, without revealing who I view as the obvious choice just yet.
The first and most obvious comparisons to make are the physical measurables and draft capital invested in the two.
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ArDarius Stewart
- 5’11”
- 204 lbs
- 40 time: 4.49
- Vertical: 34”
- Selected at pick 79 overall by the NY Jets
- Full rookie SWOT article on Stewart available here
Josh Reynolds
- 6’3”
- 194 lbs
- 40 time: 4.52
- Vertical: 37”
- Selected at pick 117 overall by the LA Rams
- Full rookie SWOT article on Reynolds available here
This is just scratching the surface and says nothing to the game of either player, but this raises the first red flag on Reynolds. When the longer and leaner player is slower and selected a full round later in the draft, that player starts at a large disadvantage and would need to have other aspects of their player profile show as advantageous to close that gap.
College Production
Josh Reynolds, including team output:
Ardarius Stewart, including team output:
For the purposes of statistical comparison, I’m going to keep it to 2016. From a raw output standpoint, Reynolds holds the edge over Stewart. On a per game basis, his output averaged out to a line of 4.7/79.9/0.9 line while Stewart held averages of 4.5/72/0.7.
However, when we look at the availability of targets and market share accounted for by each player, it paints a totally different picture. When broken down to percentage of team receptions/team receiving yards/team receiving touchdowns, it flips to Reynolds posting 24%/31.3%/48% while Stewart’s look like 26.7%/34.8%/42%. All things considered, these numbers and percentages are too close to give an edge to either player in this category.
What does the Film Say?
I hadn’t watched any of Josh Reynolds since March or April in my initial evaluation process, and my preference in this debate will shine through here, but I didn’t miss anything. His lone special characteristic is high-pointing the ball vertically, and his length assists him in this. Where I don’t see this lone perk to his game being allowed to transition to the NFL is in his alarming lack of overall strength. He simply cannot beat press coverage and that issue will be magnified many times over against NFL defensive backs. His frame screams of an inability to add weight and he may have done himself a favor by skipping the bench press at he NFL Combine as I don’t believe it’s out of the realm of possibility to have recorded zero reps had he participated. In addition to his lack of physicality, he offers nothing after the catch. He has no quickness to make tacklers miss nor the strength to shed them. His game is limited to high-pointing intermediate to deep throws, but he does have a good knack for coming down with them. He is also coming from a system where receivers were rarely asked to do any sort of blocking, and I fear his physical limitations from a strength standpoint will be another obstacle keeping him off the field that he may never get past.
Moving onto Stewart but remaining on the blocking aspect of the wide receiver position, Stewart is the polar opposite of Reynolds as he was often asked to block, did it willingly and did it very well and tenaciously in both the pass and run games. Also unlike Reynolds, he plays with a good degree of physicality and strength, especially to get through press coverage, and uses this to consistently make defenders miss and chew up yardage after the catch. Per Pro Football Focus and Eliot Crist, he was second in the nation at forcing missed tackles. There are no glaring holes to his game and did as much as he could in the overall anemic passing offense at Alabama.
NFL Situation and Opportunity
While I do like Stewart far better as a prospect, this is the true distinguishing factor to me. Simply put, Stewart landed in a remarkably better situation, despite this not being the predominant public perception. While we do know that neither the Rams nor Jets are going to be a high powered passing offense any time in the foreseeable future, I do believe there is a much clearer path to both snaps and targets for Stewart than there is for Reynolds.
First, the Jets have what I believe to be the worst overall roster (by a significant margin) in the league and are likely to have more 2017 games playing from behind than any other team, which will create more opportunities for wide receivers and less for lead protecting running backs. While the Rams are likely to step out of the doldrums of their 2016 passing game and be improved in the area under new coach Sean McVay, they still have a very capable defense with playmakers and Todd Gurley looking to rebound from his sophomore slump to be the focal point of the offense.
The next piece of the puzzle is positional competition for each player. As I mentioned earlier, I see Stewart to be in a much more advantageous position. We’ll jump into the Jets first.
New York Jets
Key off-season departures: Brandon Marshall, Eric Decker
Current positional competition with draft pedigree (rookie contract players) or financial commitment (players beyond rookie contract) and career receptions:
- Quincy Enunwa, sixth round pick, 80 career receptions
- Robby Anderson, undrafted, 42 career receptions
- Charone Peake, seventh round pick, 19 career receptions
- Chad Hansen, fourth round pick, 0 career receptions
- Jalin Marshall, undrafted, 14 career receptions
Note that Hansen, the highest selected player of this group, was taken in the same draft as Stewart and one round later. Additionally there is no established incumbent and a large year one role is there for the taking.
Los Angeles Rams
Key offseason departures: Kenny Britt
Current positional competition with draft pedigree (rookie contract players) or financial commitment (players beyond rookie contract) and career receptions:
- Tavon Austin, first round pick, five years and $51 million remaining on contract, 181 career receptions
- Robert Woods, second round pick, five years and $34 million remaining on contract (signed in offseason), 203 career recptions
- Cooper Kupp, third round pick, 0 career receptions
- Pharoh Cooper, fourth round pick, 14 career receptions
- Mike Thomas, sixth round pick, 3 career receptions
As you can see, there are compensated veterans in the way of the path to snaps and targets for Reynolds, in addition to Kupp being projected as the slot starter which kicks Tavon Austin outside, making the path even less visible. Also in the mix are the two returning second year players with similar draft pedigree to Reynolds.
To summarize, Stewart is on top of this “debate” by a landslide and the greatest similarity between the two is their average draft position in dynasty drafts. Take Stewart, the superior player in the superior situation (in the second round if you need to) before you even consider Reynolds. He’s more of a fourth round flier in my eyes.
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