Rookie SWOT: Jeremy McNichols

Bruce Matson Posted On June 4, 2017

Editor’s Note: DLF is proud to bring you an annual staple series – the Rookie SWOT. These articles cover the strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats involved with rookies now that they’ve been drafted. Make sure you check out the DLF Rookie Draft Guide for all the information you need to dominate your rookie drafts.

Name: Jeremy McNichols

Position: Running Back
Pro Team: Tampa Bay Buccaneers
College Team: Boise State Broncos
Draft Status: Round Five, Pick No. 162 Overall

Video Highlights

Combine Review

Height: 5’9’’
Weight: 214 Pounds
Hands: 10’’
Arm Length: 31 ½’’
40-Yard-Dash: 4.49
20-Yard-Shuttle: 4.28
3-Cone: 6.93
Vertical: 35.5
Broad Jump: 4.28

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Strengths

McNichols is one of the best pass catching running backs in this draft class. The skills he developed while playing wide receiver in high school instantly transitioned to catching the ball out of the backfield for the Boise State Broncos, as he posted 103 receptions for 1,089 yards and 11 touchdowns during his three-year collegiate career. Not only is he a tremendous pass catcher but he’s also an effective runner between the tackles. He is very decisive and doesn’t waste any time getting to the running lane.

He may portray himself as the run of the mill finesse back, but don’t be mistaken, he’s not afraid to lay the wood on people. At the point of contact he does a very good job at keeping his pad level low, allowing him to be in the correct position to deliver the blow on the defender. He is also a very fluid runner who has the short area quickness that allows him to slide step or jump cut away from defenders for extra yardage.

When it comes to his college production, he can easily be compared to some of the top running backs in this draft class. He rushed for 1,709 yards and 23 touchdowns during his junior season while owning a 35.52 percent market share of Boise State’s offensive production. He’s capable of carrying the load for his team since he handled 642 during his sophomore and junior seasons.

Weaknesses

Even though he has the attributes to shake defenders up in the open field, he still finds difficulty in making tacklers miss in the second and third level of the defense. Oftentimes he will finish runs by running into linebackers and defensive backs or allowing himself to get caught from behind while trying to avoid a defender. He also has issues with holding on to the football, fumbling five times as a junior season and four times during his sophomore season.

Opportunities

Jameis Winston is one of the top young quarterbacks in the league and his ability to distribute the ball to his receiving corps will elevate McNichols’ fantasy potential in PPR leagues. Being a rock-solid receiver out of the backfield makes him a perfect fit for the offensive game plan.

With Doug Martin and Charles Sims each running for 2.9 yards per carry last season, McNichols should get a chance to compete for touches in a backfield that has been simply inefficient at running the football recently. Martin is signed with the team through 2020, but he currently accounts for zero dollars in dead cap space, making him a very easy to cut if the team wishes to part ways with him. Sims, however, has not proven to be a functioning three down back for the Buccaneers. The door isn’t wide open, but it’s at least cracked for McNichols to take over as the team’s lead back in the offense.

Threats

The Buccaneers didn’t spend much draft capital to acquire him, making him easily dispensable if he doesn’t perform early in his career. This isn’t very encouraging, considering there are multiple running backs who have the talent to take over as the team’s lead back. Not to mention that the 2018 draft class appears to be stacked with running back talent, so the team could potentially draft another running back in next year’s draft.

Short-Term Expectations

There’s a lot of talent in Tampa Bay’s backfield, so it’s not hard to imagine McNichols splitting carries in a committee next year. He could be a frustrating fantasy asset to own because there’s a chance he could see very little touches during his rookie year. Expect his production to be very volatile during the first couple years of his career because opportunities might be sporadic, causing him to not get the consistent workload become a reliable fantasy starter.

Long-Term Expectations

Two things are going to happen with McNichols; he’s either going to eventually take over as the team’s lead back or he’s going to slowly dwindle into fantasy football obscurity. If he becomes the team’s bell cow back, he’s more than likely going to be a high-end RB2 with RB1 upside in fantasy and will be considered one of the top running backs in dynasty. If for some reason he can’t win the job then he will become a popular end of the bench roster stash for many dynasty owners. His career trajectory is all or nothing, either he’s going to be a top fantasy asset or “just a guy.”

NFL Comparison

When it comes to athletic traits and college production he is very comparable to Melvin Gordon. Both running backs were very versatile runners who could stretch runs outside the tackle box and earn their money running between the tackles. Gordon and McNichols were both very productive in college as well. The only difference between the two backs is that McNichols was a mega producer in the passing game compared to Gordon who just had 22 receptions during his entire collegiate career.

David Johnson is an indirect comparison because he was once a wide receiver just like McNichols was in high school. Both players are tremendous pass catching threats out of the backfield and are good enough at running routes that they can be split out as a wide receiver if needed. Even though both players are totally different when it comes to running styles and athletic attributes, Johnson and McNichols are both tremendous receiving threats out of the backfield.

Projected Range for Rookie Drafts

According to DLF’s Rookie ADP, McNichols is considered a mid-to-late second round pick in rookie drafts with a 16.80 ADP. He is usually the eighth running back off the board with Leonard Fournette, Christian McCaffrey, Joe Mixon, Dalvin Cook, Alvin Kamara, Samaje Perine and Kareem Hunt usually being drafted ahead of him. I’ve seen McNichols fall into the middle of the third round in some of my drafts. He’s an acquired taste for many dynasty owners which could cause him to fall in drafts but in other drafts he could jump into the top-20. With that being said, pay the premium if you are in love with him, because there’s a good chance that you will get sniped in the draft if you wait for him to fall to you with one of your later picks. Be prepared to move up a few spots if he starts to fall in the draft. He’s certainly worth your consideration because he has the potential to become one of the top producers out of this draft class and his price tag is more than palatable for his talent level.

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Bruce Matson

Contributor at Dynasty League Football

I'm a financial counselor for a hospital in South Central Ohio. I graduated from Muskingum University with a bachelor's in business while minoring in Economics and Accounting. I won my first fantasy football title with Jake Plummer as my quarterback.