My Top 100 Rookies For 2017: Pre-Draft

Welcome to the third edition of the “Top 100 rookies For 2017” series.  This journey began last November when I was sure that Dalvin Cook was in a tier of his own.  Then in January a few other prospects like Joe Mixon, David Njoku and Carlos Henderson began to climb the board.

Now we’re finally here.  The draft is all but upon us and we’re impatiently waiting for all of our favorite prospects to just finally land on their future NFL teams.

So why in the world don’t we just wait until next week to make a top 100 list again?

Well, for one, I’ve been over this before.  That just wouldn’t be as fun.  Two, I’ll be doing another top 100 after the preseason begins.  And three, it’s good to know where players belong from a talent standpoint before we get blinded by some perceived opportunity.

I’ve said it before, and I’ll say it again.  I am just one analyst who spends far too much time studying draft prospects.  You will inevitably disagree (perhaps vehemently) with me on several of these players.  My only hope is that this list can be yet another data point in your analysis that helps you select the right prospects this year in all of your rookie drafts.

The rookie draft can be a pivotal part of building your dynasties.  I hope you enjoy and learn something along the way.

If you want to find me on Twitter to tell me how wrong (or right) I am, or just become best internet friends you can find me @FF_TravisM.  I look forward to chatting with you soon.

Enjoy!

Tier One

[am4show have=’g1;’ guest_error=’sub_message’ user_error=’sub_message’ ]

1. Corey Davis – WR1, Western Michigan

There’s a new king of the top 100 and his name is Corey Davis.  Corey has long since my top wide receiver for this class, but it just took me a while to finally gather the courage to put him on top of this entire class where he belongs.

Dalvin Cook had one of more embarrassing combines in recent memory for a top running back prospect.  Joe Mixon has baggage (to say the least).  Leonard Fournette can’t jump and clearly had more serious ankle issues than many of his top fans would like to admit. Christian McCaffrey has risen as of late, but is still a running back without much chance for a full feature role.

Yes, much of Corey’s rise to the top had to do with the shortcomings of others, but there simply aren’t enough good things that can be said about Corey Davis.

“He played at Western Michigan though.  He didn’t play tough competition.”

His sample size against the top tier was smaller, but when given the opportunity he dominated.  In Corey’s nine games against Big Ten competition he lit it up with 52 catches, 701 yards and five touchdowns.  Basically, if he played the Big Ten for a full 16-game NFL-length season his stat line would be 92 catches, 1246 yards and nine touchdowns.

I’m not sure what else we want Corey to do.

Corey is one of the best route runners in this class.  He has prototypical WR1 size.  His ability to win in all segments of the field is unprecedented among his peers in this class of wide receivers.  Corey’s surefire athleticism is the only thing missing since he missed the NFL Combine with a minor surgery.

When rookie draft day comes, just take Corey.  You’ll do just fine.

Tier Two

2. Joe Mixon – RB1, Oklahoma

3. Dalvin Cook – RB2, Florida State

4. Leonard Fournette – RB3, LSU

5. Christian McCaffrey – RB4, Stanford

Yes, you read that right.  Joe Mixon is the top running back prospect in this class.  At 6’0”, 228 pounds Joe Mixon checks nearly all of the boxes you want to see (except of course his off-field issues, which are huge).  Mixon led the country with 8.1 yards per touch (for RBs with at least 200 touches) last year.  His pro-day forty around showed his speed ranging somewhere around 4.5 seconds.  His jumps and agility drills weren’t off the charts but were adequate, especially given his size.

Plus, Joe showed elite receiving ability from all over the field.  It didn’t matter if he was lined up out wide or running routes out of the back field Mixon impressed averaging 13.8 yards per reception on 65 catches and nine receiving touchdowns in just two seasons for Oklahoma.  Joe Mixon truly should not come off of the field at the next level if he’s given an opportunity.

Dalvin Cook and Leonard Fournette are still going to be beasts somewhere.  We don’t have to spend a lot of time explaining why they’re ranked so highly.  Yes, Dalvin struggled at the Combine, but one day in your underwear doesn’t undo an entire body of work at Florida State.  Leonard should be a fantastic power back somewhere early on.  Let’s hope his ankles don’t have any long-term issues.

Christian McCaffrey has been rising at an alarmingly fast rate across just about every draft board out there.  Why?  People realized that he isn’t just some scat back after all.  His NFL Combine performance was arguably the best of 2017 among all running backs.  When you look at his workload he carried at Stanford and elite agility to force missed tackles his potential is undeniable.  Many have placed McCaffrey as high as their 1.01 for 2017.  He’s really not that far off for me.

Tier Three

6. Mike Williams – WR2, Clemson

Mike is in a tier of his own because upon further research he’s simply lacking any one elite attribute.  He is a big bad football player who often wins on back shoulder throws and contested situations.  His short and intermediate game is vastly undervalued by many analysts.  That’s definitely true.  However, his lack of ability to create real separation, poor timing on jump balls, and lack of true elite athleticism at least make me pause before I select him, even here.  Mike Williams should find a solid home at the next level, but I’m just tempering my expectations.

Tier Four

7. JuJu Smith-Schuster – WR3, USC

8. Evan Engram – TE1, Ole Miss

9. OJ Howard – TE2, Alabama

10. John Ross – WR4, Washington

11. Chris Godwin – WR5, Penn State

12. Alvin Kamara – RB5, Tennessee

Yes, JuJu is still up here.  If you’re curious as to why, you can check out my latest rookie profile on him.

This is definitely the year of the tight end.  I just apparently have the wrong one ranked at TE1 right?  Don’t get me wrong, I love OJ Howard and the balance that he brings to his game.  He can block, run routes, and out-athlete just about any defender that he will face.  I love him.  But Evan Engram has the opportunity to plug right into a joker/move TE role and catch 50-60 passes in year one.  Landing spot will obviously have a huge effect on where the top two tight ends land in post-draft rankings everywhere.  However, Evan’s 4.42 forty and elite receiving ability push him over the edge for fantasy purposes.

The only other new face to this tier is Chris Godwin.  The former four-star recruit ran a 4.48-second forty coming out of high school and somehow we all acted surprised when he killed the NFL Combine.  Just two seasons ago Chris Godwin was getting some love in devy leagues, but was quickly forgotten for reasons I can’t fathom.  This class’s wide receivers are fairly gross for the most part, but Chris Godwin brings an upside that many other options do not.  He also offers a safe level of reliability game to game that most wide receivers in this class do not.  Dating back to December of 2014 Godwin had at least three catches or a touchdown in every single game but one.  I am starting to like him more and more.  Expect him to be gone early day two in the NFL Draft.

Tier Five

13. David Njoku – TE3, Miami

14. Samaje Perine – RB6, Oklahoma

15. D’Onta Foreman – RB7, Texas

16. Malachi Dupre – WR6, LSU

17. Curtis Samuel – WR7, Ohio State

18. Carlos Henderson – WR8, Louisiana Tech

19. Jeremy McNichols – RB8, Boise State

20. KD Cannon – WR9, Baylor

This is where things really start to look different than they did in January.  David Njoku is a 20-year-old phenomenal athletic specimen.  The former high school wide receiver and high jumper has come a long way as a tight end, but needs to vastly improve on blocking if he wants to stay on the field early in his career.  He can high jump more than seven feet, runs a 4.64-second 40-yard dash, and possesses above average agility even for a wide receiver.  Expect great things in a few years.

Perine and Foreman were massive producers that need to shed just a little weight to find starting reps.

Malachi Dupre is a former five-star wide receiver that can jump straight over you.  He’ll beat you with his first step and finish at the point of the catch.  If he adds a few pounds, look out.

Curtis Samuel is a mess of a prospect to figure out, but I’m finally coming around.  Imagine a more athletic Randall Cobb or Theo Riddick option.  If he lands in a good offense I’m buying all day.

Carlos Henderson’s ascension was too much to miss out on last season for Louisiana Tech.  He’s the closest thing to Odell Beckham Jr. (I’m looking at you @DTC_RileyB) that this class has to offer.  No, he isn’t exactly the same, but he projects a lot better than many would like to admit.

McNichols’ Combine made me take another look.  His technique and athleticism could earn him starting reps year one.

Cannon is another former five-star kid that can burn with 4.41 wheels and solid deep ball ability.

Tier Six

21. Marlon Mack – RB9, USF

22. Isaiah Ford – WR10, Virginia Tech

23. Deshaun Watson – QB1, Clemson

24. Ishmael Zamora – WR11, Baylor

25. Noah Brown – WR12, Ohio State

26. Zay Jones – WR13, East Carolina

27. Taywan Taylor – WR14, Western Kentucky

28. DeDe Westbrook – WR15, Oklahoma

Marlon Mack’s running style reminds me of LeSean McCoy.  His athletic profile is more like a really good back-up running back than stud starter, I love the confidence I saw in his junior performance.

Isaiah Ford finally started earning some respect, but his Combine left me wanting more.  His route running will earn him snaps early, but I’m not sure he has the chops to be anything above a consistent flex for you.

Ishmael Zamora was caught on tape doing a horrible thing.  I’ll let the NFL decide what that means for his future, just like Mixon.  Zamora can beat anyone in one-on-one situations.  His red zone appeal is incredibly enticing, but his dynasty value likely all depends on his real draft stock.

Noah Brown is an upside shot worth taking in the beginning of the third round.  It’s going to surprise many when he’s taken potentially as early as pick 100.  Real scouts love him more than couch-dwelling ones.

Many want Zay to be higher.  His athletic profile at the combine impressed.  His statistics this year were absolutely insane for East Carolina.  How he compiled those insane statistics just wasn’t as impressive as many dynasty fanatics want to believe.  If he is taken inside the top three rounds his stock shoots up some for me (and most likely many others).

Tier Seven

29. Aaron Jones – RB10, UTEP

30. Elijah McGuire – RB11, Louisiana-Lafayette

31. Joe Williams – RB12, Utah

32. Kareem Hunt – RB13, Toledo

33. Wayne Gallman – RB14, Clemson

34. Cooper Kupp – WR16, Eastern Washington

35. Elijah Hood – RB15, North Carolina

36. Patrick Mahomes – QB2, Texas Tech

This tier is where I’m going to lose some of you (if you didn’t already leave after Zay), and that’s okay.

Check out my RB steal piece on Aaron Jones.  He’s a beast that is being overlooked by many right now.

Elijah McGuire is possibly the best true receiver in this class.  Don’t believe me?  Check out his game.

Joe Williams just retired and unretired last year, but could still be one of the top running backs in this draft.

Kareem Hunt’s 40-yard dash of 4.62 surprised some people when it really shouldn’t have.  He went to Toledo for a reason.  I like his form and tenacity, but sometimes the want-to just isn’t good enough to become a starter in the NFL.

Gallman and Kupp showed their true athletic colors and have to move down some boards.

Elijah Hood could be a monster if he stays healthy, but he couldn’t in college.  I’m concerned he doesn’t start now.

Patrick Mahomes could very well be the best QB in this class, but I’m concerned his footwork and gunslinger mentality limit his ceiling more than many in the dynasty community want to believe.

Tier Eight

37. Robert Davis – WR17, Georgia State

38. Amara Darboh – WR18, Michigan

39. Chad Hansen – WR19, California

40. ArDarius Stewart – WR20, Alabama

41. Jamaal Williams – RB16, BYU

42. DeShone Kizer – QB3, Notre Dame

43. Mitchell Trubisky – QB4, North Carolina

44. Corey Clement – RB17, Wisconsin

45. Josh Malone – WR21, Tennessee

46. James Conner – RB18, Pittsburgh

47. Josh Reynolds – WR22, Texas A&M

48. Bucky Hodges – TE4, Virginia Tech

Robert Davis really could be the steal at wide receiver for this draft.  I didn’t give him a proper chance prior to the NFL Combine.  His athletic profile is the best of any wide receiver in the past few years.  Give him a look when you get to the middle round three, really.

Amara Darboh is probably a solid possession wide receiver at best, but his athletic profile confuses me.  You could do worse in the fourth round of rookie drafts.

I have really soured on both Corey Clement and Jamaal Williams.  They both could find value as handcuffs at the next level.

DeShone Kizer and Mitchell Trubisky are missing crucial aspects to how I generally trust and assess quarterback play.  Kizer is wildly inconsistent with his accuracy.  Trubisky simply doesn’t have the sample size to trust.  With the right offensive coordinators both could be back end NFL starters for a long time.

Bucky Hodges is a tight end that didn’t really play tight end for Virginia Tech.  His landing spot will be more crucial than possibly any other tight end in this class.  He has fantastic athletic measurables, but just can’t really do much more than win jump balls.

Tier Nine

49. Brian Hill – RB19, Wyoming

50. Jake Butt – TE5, Michigan

51. Jordan Leggett – TE6, Clemson

52. I’Tavius Mathers – RB20, MTSU

53. Damor’ea Stringfellow – WR23, Ole Miss

54. Amba Etta-Tawo – WR24, Syracuse

55. Speedy Noil – WR25, Texas A&M

56. Adam Shaheen – TE7, Ashland

57. Jehu Chesson – WR26, Michigan

58. Chris Carson – RB21, Oklahoma State

59. Brad Kaaya – QB5, Miami

60. Chad Kelly – QB6, Ole Miss

I haven’t bought in to Brian Hill as a legitimate NFL starter, and I won’t start now.  He can look good at times, but also struggles with vision against 6-man fronts at times.  I’ll end up with zero shares of him.

Jake Butt and Jordan Leggett are both solid tight ends.  In any other class they would both have the opportunity to be the TE1.  Both could start one day.  Butt brings more balance.  Leggett brings more straight receiving appeal, but I’m worried that Deshaun Watson inflated his abilities.

I’Tavius Mathers and Damor’ea Stringfellow were both Combine snubs that offer amazing upside.  Mathers is a fantastic do-it-all receiving back.  Stringfellow out-muscled the Alabama secondary last year.

Amba Etta-Tawo has the coolest name out there.  His ideal projection is Stevie Johnson.  He could also completely bust.

Speedy Noil might be the most disappointing five-star wide receiver recruit from his class (outside of Ermon Lane).  He simply didn’t have the opportunity to feature at Texas A&M with so many other solid options there.  Speedy could easily be a steal as a slot wide receiver for a team in the fifth round or later.

Adam Shaheen is reportedly going to go a lot higher in the draft than we believe.  If that happens he could rise higher than this.  He carried a no-name school’s receiving offense.  At his monstrous size Shaheen could very well do that in the NFL too.

Tier Ten

61. Jerome Lane – WR27, Akron

62. Donnel Pumphrey – RB22, San Diego State

63. Fred Ross – WR28, Mississippi State

64. Artavis Scott – WR29, Clemson

65. Travis Rudolph – WR30, Florida State

66. DeAngelo Henderson – RB23, Coastal Carolina

67. Travin Dural – WR31, LSU

68. Gerald Everett – TE8, South Alabama

69. Quincy Adeboyejo – WR32, Ole Miss

70. Ryan Switzer – WR33, North Carolina

71. Boom Williams – RB24, Kentucky

72. Nathan Peterman – QB7, Pittsburgh

This class is full of some disappointments that have dropped through further analysis and information.

Donnel Pumphrey is too light.  Artavis Scott and Travis Rudolph might be tied for the worst athlete in the entire wide receiver class.  Travin Dural’s mix of embarrassing production, horrible senior bowl performance and below average athletic profile makes him hard to even look at.

However, there are some bright spots too.

Fred Ross may earn a possession role due to his knack to find the end zone and make spectacular plays from time to time.  Gerald Everett may end up being the best draft day value at tight end in the whole draft.  He has tiny hands and is a bit undersize all around.  That’s definitely true.  But he also made some insane plays for South Alabama.

Ryan Switzer is everyone’s favorite little guy, but I won’t be buying any 5’8” slot wide receivers.

Nathan Peterman could find a home in most superflex leagues, but he is the end of my interest in one quarterback leagues.  If he ever starts for an NFL team on a consistent basis it will be a surprise me.

Tier 11

73. DeAngelo Yancey – WR34, Purdue

74. Michael Rector – WR35, Stanford

75. Jonnu Smith – TE9, Florida International

76. Marcus Cox – RB25, Appalachian State

77. Justin Davis – RB26, USC

78. Matthew Dayes – RB27, NC State

79. Kenny Golladay – WR36, Northern Illinois

80. TJ Logan – RB28, North Carolina

81. Davis Webb – QB8, California

82. Ricky Seals-Jones – WR37, Texas A&M

83. Mack Hollins – WR38, North Carolina

84. Anthony Wales – RB29, Western Kentucky

This is the wild card tier.

DeAngelo Yancey and Michael Rector are deep ball savants that could be best ball favorites one day.

Jonnu Smith is the darling sleeper tight end of this class who is just as likely to never have a catch as he is make the pro bowl.

Marcus Cox was a major combine snub that played well nearly every time he faced tough competition.  He’ll be on a roster in August.  There’s a good chance he’s a handcuff option one day.

Matthew Dayes produced pretty well at NC State, but I have no idea why anyone thinks he’ll ever be more than a change of pace option who isn’t very good to begin with.

Kenny Golladay is a massive person that ran a 4.5 forty at the Combine.  He grabbed 160 balls and 18 touchdowns in just two seasons at Northern Illinois.  He could easily follow the Tyrell Williams path to stardom with an injury or two.

Anthony Wales wasn’t even on the list in January, so why is he now?  He was one of the most efficient running backs in the country last year.  Yes, he was only facing Conference USA competition, and he wasn’t invited to the combine, but the raw numbers are there.  Some team is going to give him a chance.

Tier 12

85. Josh Dobbs – QB9, Tennessee

86. Jerod Evans – QB10, Virginia Tech

87. Gabe Marks – WR39, Washington State

88. Stacy Coley – WR40, Miami

89. Dare Ogunbowale – RB30, Wisconsin

90. DeVeon Smith – RB31, Michigan

91. Joe Yearby – RB32, Miami

92. Jeremy Sprinkle – TE10, Arkansas

93. Michael Roberts – TE11, Toledo

94. Trent Taylor – WR41, Louisiana Tech

95. Darreus Rogers – WR42, USC

96. Shock Linwood – RB33, Baylor

97. Krishawn Hogan – WR43, Marian

98. Jahad Thomas – RB34, Temple

99. Zach Pascal – WR44, Old Dominion

100. Josiah Price – TE12, Michigan State

If you’re considering rostering any of these guys I’m definitely interested in joining your league.  Besides Josh Dobbs all of these prospects are incredible longshots to find success at the NFL level.

Josh Dobbs may actually be a genius.  Not only did he lead the Tennessee Volunteers to some of the best years they have had since Peyton Manning, but he majored in aerospace engineering at the same time.  If he can process an NFL playbook Dobbs may find himself a home in the NFL for a long time (probably as a backup, though).

Jerod Evans came in and revolutionized the Virginia Tech offense last year.  He has a fun deep ball and runs all over the place, but there’s still a chance he goes undrafted.

DeVeon Smith had a chance to prove his case at the senior bowl and failed.  He had another chance to prove his stars at the Combine and hugely disappointed with unforgiveable results.  If he is on a roster in 2018 I will be surprised.

All three tight ends in this group will probably still be on a roster by the end of 2017.  Michael Roberts and Jeremy Sprinkle bring more fantasy upside, but Josiah may stick because of the balance he brings.  Michigan State’s offense relied on Josiah’s production at all levels.  Watch for him to possibly find some best ball value in year two or three.

Last, and maybe least, Krishawn Hogan from Marian is, at the very least, intriguing.  He destroyed the lower level competition he faced and had one of the best combines of the past few years as well.  However, he is incredibly hard to project having played essentially beefed up high school competition.  If you can grab him off the waiver wire for cheap he’s worth a stash.

That’s all folks!  I hope you enjoyed this last look at the 2017 rookies before the NFL Draft changes everything!  Again come find me on Twitter @FF_TravisM.  I’d love to chat more about this class.

[/am4show]