Aaron Jones: A Rookie Draft Running Back Steal?

If you had the chance to read my 2017 WR Steal article on Georgia State wide receiver Robert Davis, you may already know where I’m going here.  But for those of you out of the loop, let me bring you up to speed.

It’s not that I believe there will only be one late round running back that provides solid value on draft capital investment.  It’s that we can sit here all day and talk about Jordan Howard, Jay Ajayi, Isaiah Crowell or Latavius Murray as guys who have definitely returned some decent value given their original draft position.  That doesn’t help us now.  And even when they were “sleeper” picks they really weren’t.

For any running back to be considered THE steal in a draft class we need to consider a guy who has been virtually invisible until just a few weeks ago at the NFL Combine.  I’m talking about Aaron Jones of University of Texas at El Paso (UTEP, for those of you who like two syllable acronyms).

I don’t have a super fun interview with his former quarterback like I did with Robert Davis, but I have some fun player comparisons to talk about.  Let’s dive in.

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The Combine

Unlike Robert Davis, I had heard of Aaron Jones before he was invited to the NFL Combine.  Thanks to my addiction to devy leagues (where you roster college players), I did some digging into Jones after his sophomore year in 2014.  However, after his 2015 season was ended prematurely with a major ankle injury I forgot about him.

But!

Leave it to a solid 2016 season and the Combine to spark my interest back up in a way I never could have imagined.

It takes one look at an Aaron Jones run to know that he’s quick, but I had no idea he would perform at the elite level he did just a few weeks ago in Indianapolis.

According to the document I put together every year comparing running back measurable (I call it my RBAMA, which you can find over at The Fantasy Authority), Aaron Jones had the best combine out of anyone this year besides perhaps Christian McCaffrey.

Aaron’s forty time wasn’t quite where some expected it to be at 4.56, but it’s still a tick better than average for a running back at the NFL Combine.

What really impressed was everything else.  Aaron’s 37.5 inch vertical and broad jump of 10’7” (absurd for his size) were both second best among all running backs.

His short shuttle was good, but not elite at 4.20 (third in this class).  And finally, his three-cone drill was fantastic (6.82 seconds), good for second in this class behind only Christian McCaffrey.

So what? 

Well, if you look at the running backs from the past few years who have found early success in their NFL careers, most of them scored at or above average in nearly every drill at the combine (David Johnson, Melvin Gordon, Jay Ajayi, Derrick Henry, Duke Johnson, Kenneth Dixon and more).  Without having to go over all of their measurables let’s just take a look those fun comparable RBs I mentioned earlier that tested similarly to Aaron Jones.

Name	Height	Weight	Hands	Forty	Vert	Broad	Shuttle	3-Cone
Aaron Jones	69	208	9 1/2	4.56	37.5	127	4.2	6.82
Ameer Abdullah	69	205	8 5/8	4.61	42.5	130	3.95	6.79
Duke Johnson	69	207	9 1/4	4.55	33.5	121	4.16	6.88
Kenneth Dixon	70	215	9 1/2	4.58	37.5	121	4.28	6.97
DeAndre Washington	68	204	9	4.49	34.5	118	4.2	7.03

Those David Johnson, Melvin Gordon and Jay Ajayi guys I mentioned all have typical feature back size.  However, there have been tons of running backs that were just a hair smaller that carried the load for several years.  All four of the backs that we’ll compare to Aaron are just a tad undersized, but tested incredibly well at the NFL Combine.

If you have been playing dynasty for a few years you may also notice that all four running backs had an impressive hype train attached to them at varying levels leading up to their rookie seasons.

So why isn’t there more buzz around Aaron Jones yet?  He’s faster (and slightly bigger) than Ameer.  Aaron’s lower body burst destroys Duke and DeAndre.  He’s marginally better in every drill except the vertical when compared to Kenneth Dixon.

It’s time more people hopped aboard the Aaron Jones hype train just based on his measurables alone.

“But Travis, there’s more to a prospect than their physical traits.  Just look at (The GOAT!) Christine Michael!”

Yeah, I know.  That’s why there are still two more sections.  Keep going; you can make it.

The Numbers

Some of you nerdy nerds out there get your fix by analyzing prospect production.  You like to talk about your rates, shares, trees, and all of those exhausted buzz words.  This section is for you!  Let’s take a look at what Aaron did over at UTEP.

Year	Games	Carries	RuYards	YPC	TD	Rec	RecYards	YPR	TD
2013	9	155	811	5.2	4	4	14	3.5	0
2014	12	242	1321	5.5	11	30	293	9.8	3
2015	2	32	209	6.5	1	9	106	11.8	1
2016	12	229	1773	7.7	17	28	233	8.3	3

You may notice there is a significant gap in Aaron’s 2015 season.  Sadly, as I mentioned briefly before, Aaron Jones tore a ligament in his left ankle not even two complete games into his third season at UTEP.  That truly could have been a truly massive break out year.   Only 32 carries and less than six quarters of play into the year he already had 315 all-purpose yards and two scores.  We may not even be talking about Jones as a steal if it were not for that injury.

But let’s get back to the good stuff.  Injury talk is depressing.

Aaron had a stellar sophomore season with 14 total scores and 1614 all-purpose yards.  But his senior year was even more impressive bouncing back from his injury.

Jones only ran the ball 229 times, but still covered 1773 yards on the ground on his way to 17 touchdowns.  That 7.7 yards per carry mark was good enough for first among all running backs in the country with at least 200 carries.  When you add in his receptions, his 7.8 yards per touch was good enough for second among all running backs in the country with at least 200 touches.  Who had a better rate?  Only Joe Mixon, one of the best running backs in the country, had more yards per touch than Aaron Jones.

Are you not entertained?  Let’s take another look at those four backs that everyone liked before their rookie seasons.  These are numbers from their finals collegiate seasons.

Name	Carries	RuYards	YPC	TD	Rec	RecYards	YPR	TD
Aaron Jones	229	1773	7.7	17	28	233	8.3	3
Ameer Abdullah	264	1611	6.1	19	22	269	12.2	3
Duke Johnson	242	1652	6.8	10	38	421	11.1	3
Kenneth Dixon	198	1073	5.4	19	33	464	14.1	7
DeAndre Washington	233	1492	6.4	14	41	385	9.4	2

It looks to me like Aaron Jones was more productive with a smaller sample size of touches than any of the running backs listed.

When you compare Aaron to Kenneth Dixon and DeAndre Washington his production and efficiency still trumps them both pretty handily (besides Dixon’s touchdowns).

Yes, Ameer Abdullah and Duke Johnson may have played slightly higher levels of competition than Aaron Jones did.

But that’s the problem right?

Aaron Jones doesn’t have the opportunity to face tough competition every week so we attempt to punish him for this.  All we can do without inserting some immeasurable bias into things is look at what he did against the competition he did face.  And what did he do?  He ran for no less than 67 yards in every single game his final season.

“He only had 28 receptions.  Aren’t we supposed to get excited about smaller guys who can catch passes?”

Yes.  Yes you are.  And Aaron Jones can do just that.  No player on UTEP (including wide receivers) caught more than 36 passes in his final season there.  The quarterback play simply wasn’t good enough to sustain a significant or trustworthy passing game.

The numbers are there.  The physical traits are there.  What’s that other thing we use to assess players?

The Tape

I think it is called tape.  Or at least that’s what it used to be called back in the day when the editor of this piece was a kid (probably).

Regardless of what it’s called, it helps to actually put your eyes on the player you’re assessing.  Some believe that tape is too subjective.  Others believe tape is the only thing you need to make proper prospect analysis decisions.  It’s probably somewhere in between.

I digress.

Some things that immediately jump out with Aaron Jones are his blast through the hole, smart use of stiff arm, change of direction, strong finish for his size, and solid hands in the passing game.

If you watch him very long you may also notice he had some solid help from his offensive line, but his execution is generally incredible.

He routinely influences second level defenders’ positions before he even takes his first two steps behind the line.  His decisive cuts after he manipulates or reads the defense are completely demoralizing for a defense.

The most impressive part about Jones’ game is probably his balance though.  He’ll bend right, bend left, bounce off of a hit, and finish with a stiff arm on the outside all on the same play within a couple of seconds.

But once again, it’s not as fun to just talk about it.  Check out some highlights from Aaron’s final season at UTEP below.

He’s fun to watch, right?

Once again, I hope you enjoyed this piece as much or more than I did.  As always, find me on that Twitter thing @FF_TravisM and feel free to leave a comment.  I love to hear from and learn from you all.

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