Rookie Profile: Curtis Samuel, WR Ohio State

Curtis Samuel wins the “Most Peculiar Prospect of the Year” award.  That much is definitely true.  Is he a wide receiver?  Is he a running back?  Will he be more like Randall Cobb?  Or will he end up being a Theo Riddick?

Those questions can scare away even the most seasoned dynasty owners from drafting Curtis Samuel this year.  But rather than trying to tackle all of those questions at once let’s just talk about the things we do know about the highly touted and confusing Samuel.

Story Behind the Numbers

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Statistics from sports-reference.com.

Curtis didn’t exactly have the most conventional statistical progression throughout his collegiate career.  Is that a bad thing?  It might be.  However, too often stats are thrown around without necessary context.  So let’s dig into why Samuel’s numbers look so strange despite having missed basically no time at all with injury.

As Bruce Matson mentioned in our 20/20 series, Curtis Samuel was a highly regarded prospect coming into college.  However, even from the beginning he warranted the “ATH” or “Athlete” designation among recruiting circles because he simply didn’t fit into any one mold, running back or receiver.  All everyone knew was that he had 4.36-forty wheels and he could jump out of the stadium with a 40-inch vertical.

Samuel’s first year at Ohio State (2014) was low on opportunity.  Listed at running back behind Ezekiel Elliott his snaps just didn’t come that often.  He would come in to play as a gadget guy or change-of-pace back from time to time, but that was really it.  Samuel logged just 58 carries and 11 receptions his freshman year, but still managed six touchdowns on the ground.  The electric speed at least showed promise.

Although Devin Smith left for the NFL after 2014, there were still way too many future NFL playmakers left on Ohio State’s offense for Curtis Samuel to fully bloom.  Ezekiel Elliott, Michael Thomas (the good one), Jalin Marshall, and most significantly (in relation to Curtis) Braxton Miller were all still there taking targets and carries.  Curtis’ stats fell even further that year.

Braxton Miller is the most significant because his role in the 2015 offense introduced us to the beginnings of Curtis Samuel’s role that he would play in 2016.  Braxton would line up in the backfield and then slide out to the slot.  He would line up in the slot and then fall back into the backfield.  Braxton’s mismatch gadget role obviously inspired coach Urban Meyer so much that he built nearly half of the 2016 Ohio State offense around that very role for Curtis Samuel.

Even though nearly all of Samuel’s receiving work stemmed from the slot or backfield he still had 42 more catches than any other Ohio State wide receiver in 2016.  And even though many in the dynasty world like to call Curtis a “gadget” guy he actually ran the ball in between the tackles quite often.  Not only that, he had 97 carries to Mike Weber’s (the conventional running back on the team) 182.  Samuel’s role was what a huge part of the Ohio State offense.

Urban Meyer’s trust in Curtis Samuel to run inside, outside, and catch passes anywhere carried that offense to an 11-2 record.  That’s not bad for a “gadget” guy.

The Athlete

Everyone wants to see their young rookie prospects to blow up all the numbers at the combine.  Curtis may not have had a perfect combine, but he certainly didn’t disappoint.

According to Player Profiler Samuel’s 4.31-second 40-yard dash puts him in the 100th percentile for wide receivers.  It would be one thing to just run that at the combine, but it shows on tape too (highlights at the bottom of the article).

Yes, the forty-yard dash was the most impressive portion of Samuel’s combine.   However, besides his above average vertical jump at 37 inches, Samuel’s athletic profile seems to lack in other areas.  His agility score (total of times in 20-yard shuttle and 3-cone drill) of 11.42 was just about putrid.  That’s not really what you want to see out of a potential slot receiver or running back.  But if you watch Samuel very long you find him simply making one decisive cut then using his elite speed to finish.  That agility score may not be as much of an issue as we combined-obsessed (yes, I’m one of those) people like to think.

His best comparable player according to Player Profiler is Randall Cobb.  And yes, lately that hasn’t been a positive thing.  But people forget that just a few years back Randall Cobb finished as a PPR wide receiver one in fantasy.  Imagine if Randall Cobb was actually significantly faster.  Oh wait, then you would have Curtis Samuel.  If a decent offense adds Samuel he could very well be a force to reckon with from the slot.

Even as we start branching out further to find other potential comparable players there is more good news.  According to Mock Draftable Curtis Samuel looks a whole lot like Golden Tate.  They’re both just under six feet and 200 pounds.  Samuel is again faster than Tate, and edges him out in the vertical, 3-cone drill and 20-yard shuttle by a hair.

It looks like Samuel may look like the perfect slot wide receiver.

“But wait.  Couldn’t Curtis Samuel also be a running back?”

Sure, but the comparable players aren’t nearly as appealing.  Joe McKnight is the best the Samuel’s spider chart has to offer.

Yes, in the right offense Samuel’s role could look like Theo Riddick, but it definitely doesn’t need to for him to find some level of success in the NFL.

Summary

It definitely takes some context to understand why Curtis Samuel’s unusual journey may just land him inside the top 100 picks in the upcoming NFL Draft.  However, we should be surprised that a former 4-star recruit who runs around a 4.3-forty pushed his way into relevance for one of the best teams in college football.  His future is still quite uncertain given his mixed skill set, but Samuel has a lot to offer dynasty owners.

Our rankers here have Curtis Samuel anywhere from 8th to their 22nd rookie overall.  If you want to draft Samuel it will most likely take at least a mid-second round pick in most leagues to grab him.

That kind of draft capital seems to perfectly account for Samuel’s mix of lack of a clear role at the next level and massive potential as an athletic playmaker.

Even if you aren’t sold as a dynasty owner, like many prospects in this class Curtis Samuel is definitely worth the dart throw.

As always, feel free to reach me on Twitter @FF_TravisM.  If you have any questions or comments feel free to leave them below.  Also, enjoy some Curtis Samuel highlights!

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