Rookie Profile: Jeremy McNichols, RB Boise State
Boise State as produced two relevant dynasty assists in recent years in Doug Martin and Jay Ajayi. Both players were hyper productive during their tenures at Boise State. Martin rushed for 3,431 yards and 43 touchdowns during his collegiate career, while Ajayi managed to rush for 3,796 yards and 50 touchdowns.
Another productive running back for Boise State was D.J. Harper, who rushed for 1,137 yards and 15 touchdowns while catching 23 receptions for 163 yards and one touchdown during his senior season in 2012. Unlike the two previously mentioned running backs, Harper’s NFL career was less than memorable and went undrafted in the 2013 NFL Draft. He was later signed by the San Francisco 49ers, but was waived before the regular season even began.
Jeremy McNichols, running back from Boise State is another highly productive running back who just happens to be in this year’s draft class. A shifty runner with tremendous pass catching abilities, McNichols is considered one of the most versatile running backs amongst this batch of rookies. DLF currently has him ranked eighth amongst rookie running backs and 32nd overall. There’s a fork in the road when it comes to his career path in the NFL. One fork has the career trajectory or Martin and Ajayi and the other has the dismal career arc of Harper. Obviously, he’s a totally different player when compared to the other running backs, but the likelihood of him having a similar career compared to any of the previously mentioned running backs is certainly in the realm of possibilities.
He was a two-star recruit from Lakewood High School in Lakewood, California where he rushed for 798 yards and eight touchdowns while catching 17 receptions for 191 yards and two touchdowns during his senior season. During his senior season, he received first-team all-league, all-region and all-state honors. McNichols wasn’t a highly sought after prospect but he did receive offers from Boise State, Colorado State and Utah.
[am4show have=’g1;’ guest_error=’sub_message’ user_error=’sub_message’ ]
Statistics from sports-reference.com.
He was utilized as a dual threat athlete during his freshman season, appearing in nine games to rush for 159 yards and one touchdown with a 9.4 yards per carry average. He also managed to catch 15 receptions for 155 yards and one touchdown. His initial freshman was very non-eventful but was a stepping stone to an amazing collegiate career.
McNichols broke out during his sophomore season, rushing for 1,337 yards and 20 touchdowns while catching 51 receptions for 460 yards and six touchdowns. He tied for second in the nation with 26 total touchdowns. This was his first season as a full-time running back. He had seven games with over 100 yards rushing and he rushed for a touchdown in every sing game of the season. His best game of the season came against San Jose State when he rushed for 192 yards and two touchdowns while catching six receptions for 40 yards and a touchdown.
His junior season was even more impressive, rushing for 1,709 yards and 23 touchdowns while catching 37 passes for 474 yards and four touchdowns. He managed to own an amazing 35.52 percent market share of the team’s offensive production. With nine games with over 100 yards rushing and three games with over 200 yards rushing, McNichols had one of the most productive seasons in Boise State history. He finished his collegiate career fifth all-time in Boise State’s record books with 3,205 yards rushing.
I can’t brag about Player Profiler enough because they provide in depth player profiles that are easy to read and provide clear concise information to help inform you before making any fantasy football related decisions. Let’s see what they have listed on Jeremy McNichols’ profile page.
McNichols’ 41.4 percent college dominator rating ranks in the 89th percentile amongst running prospects, making one of the most polarizing backs in this draft class. His 5.4 yards per carry is considered below average and is a red flag on his profile when you take in account the level of competition he played against in the Mountain West Conference.
He tested above average in all categories. As one of the fastest backs in this draft, he tested with a 4.49 40-yard dash which ranks in the 77th percentile and his 105.3 height adjusted speed score also tested in the 77th percentile. Speed kills, but short area quickness is a must and his 11.21 agility score and his 120.9 burst score provides the inference that he’s very dangerous in the open field once he hits the second level of the defense.
Player Profiler has Melvin Gordon as his best comparable player due to both players having similar athletic traits and being very productive in college. The main difference between the two players is McNichols’ ability to catch the ball out of the backfield, he has an elite level receiving ability that most backs don’t have and Gordon’s main red flag as prospect was his lack of experience in the passing game.
Mock Draftable is another great resource for analyzing athletic metrics for current NFL players and draft prospects. They’re well known for their sprider-web chart illustrations that provides the reader a better visual on how a player stacks up athletically to his peers. Let’s take a look at McNichols’ spider-web chart.
His height is listed in the 19th percentile, but being 5’9’’ isn’t really a negative, if anything you can swing it as a positive trait, because it allows him to be lower to the ground, making it easier for him to maintain his balance and easier for him to lower his pad level before the point of contact.
When it comes to 3-cone, broad jump, vertical jump, 40-yard dash and hand size, he ranks above the 50th percentile, making him well above average in these categories. Just like Player Profiler, Mock Draftable has him as a tremendous athlete.
Below is film from his 2016 game against Washington State that occurred during week two in 2016 when he rushed for 116 yards and two touchdowns while catching three receptions for 25 yards. The footage from this game shows a little bit of everything from his skill set, making it a good video to watch if you haven’t had the opportunity to watch any of his games.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fW7bbQ4w9P0
He’s a very versatile runner who has the ability to run downhill and kick it outside. McNichols can quickly accelerate through the hole into the second level of the defense. He rarely dances before making his move as he’s a very decisive runner who is very patient by allowing his linemen to set up their blocks before advancing to the line of scrimmage. His ability to move laterally to avoid defenders provides him extra opportunities to pick up extra yards in the second level of the defense.
When it comes to the passing game, his receiving production matches up to his tape as he’s a tremendous receiver out of the backfield. He has the ability to lineup on the outside as a receiver and run routes. His short area quickness makes him dangerous in open spaces, especially after catching check downs in flat. He’s not a consistent pass blocker as he will sometimes whiff and miss the defender while pass protecting.
There aren’t many red flags on his profile. He doesn’t run with much power and can be easily brought down by defenders. McNichols only averaged 2.1 yards after initial contact. Securing the football could become an issue, considering he had eight fumbles during his last two seasons.
McNichols is a very solid prospect. His dynasty value will rise if he gets drafted by a team with a pass heavy offense. The ability to catch the ball out of the backfield provides a low end RB2 level floor if given the opportunity to be his team’s third down option out of the backfield, making him a safe investment in rookie drafts. He currently has an ADP of 21.70 which equates to a mid to late second round pick. I feel that he could be a steal in drafts, because he presents tremendous upside but also has a solid floor to lean on. I wouldn’t be surprised if he doesn’t provide any fantasy value until the second or third year into his career, because he’s more than likely going to start his career as the second of third option on the depth chart. He’s one my favorite players in this draft class and I will be trying to acquire him in almost every league.
[/am4show]
- 2024 NFL Draft: What We Expect for Day 2 - April 26, 2024
- 2024 NFL Draft: What We Expect for Day 1 - April 25, 2024
- Dynasty Fantasy Football Rookie Profile: Luke McCaffrey, WR Rice - April 19, 2024
