This is a banner year for the tight end position. Oft ignored, many have three tight ends in the first round, and consider it an amazing class. So I asked some DLF folks this: when was the last time we had such a good crop of tight ends? The consensus? Never. There are three potentially elite prospects and a handful of other high potential tight ends in the 2017 draft. One of those elite prospects is OJ Howard out of Alabama, so let’s take a close look at Howard to see why people are drooling over him.
[am4show have=’g1;’ guest_error=’sub_message’ user_error=’sub_message’ ]
The Stats
OJ Howard was the top tight end in the nation coming out of high school in Alabama. His home state team landed the five star recruit and he spent four years in the highly successful Alabama program.
Statistics from sports-reference.com.
His receiving stats won’t blow anyone away, but Nick Saban’s offense doesn’t ask a whole lot in the receiving game from the tight end position. He did manage the 8th best yards per reception mark in 2015 at 15.8, but outside of that he was under-utilized in the passing attack. Still, he managed a solid 15.1 yards per reception over his career to go along with seven touchdowns.
Though his overall stats are middling at best, Howard blew up in the 2015 College Football Playoff Championship game against Clemson. He helped lead Alabama to the national title with five receptions for 208 yards and two touchdowns – an absolutely monster performance in the biggest game of his career. (Fun fact – at that time Howard hadn’t scored a TD since the 2013 season.)
The Film
What really jumps in his highlight package is his speed in the open field. Linebackers seem to stand no chance against Howard if he gets by them, as evidenced by quite a few plays where a safety had to save the touchdown with Howard breaking away. It’s stunning to see such a big man move so fast in space. One other note here, however, is how he scores his touchdowns. In his highlight reel TDs, he’s often wide open deep and his speed helps him seal the deal. I haven’t seen him break tackles or make any fantastic moves to get by defenders and reach pay dirt.
When it comes to the tight end position, I think it’s also very important to take a look at their blocking ability. This clip from that National Championship game has quite a few examples of Howard as a blocker:
[Insert film clip #2 – http://draftbreakdown.com/video/o-j-howard-vs-clemson-2015/]
I want to highlight a few key points:
- 0:38 – Howard makes the key block to spring Derrick Henry for a touchdown. This is an example of the good blocking form Howard is capable of when he gets his hands inside on the defender and shuts him off completely.
- 2:09 – Howard misses his block on a defensive end. It isn’t a factor in the play.
- 4:08 – Howard can’t get the block on the DB, leading to a busted run play. I’ve noticed Howard often has trouble landing blocks on smaller, quicker defenders. He has the frame to really shut them down, but can’t seem to get his hands on them.
- 4:50 – Another Howard miss on a shiftier defender.
Howard certainly has the size and long arms to be effective as a blocker, though he could stand to bulk up a bit. When tasked with blocking linebackers he usually gets the job done, but he can struggle with faster players or with athletic defensive ends. He is still far better and more practiced in this area than many college tight end prospects, however.
One more bit on this film clip before we move on, this features both long touchdowns from that game (at 2:38 and 5:08, and in both cases Howard was the beneficiary of blown coverages. He can surely make a team pay for such mistakes, but it’s not something you’d want to depend on for weekly production.
Measurables
If you’re an owner that puts a lot of stock into physical traits, you’ll love OJ Howard:
His Player Profiler shows some dazzling numbers: he’s 97th percentile in the 40 yard dash with a time of 4.51, 98th percentile for his height adjusted speed score, 97th percentile for his agility score and at the 85th percentile in catch radius. His only real failing here is his burst score, due to a very poor showing at the vertical jump, where Howard could only manage 30 inches.
Here’s a bit more on his measurables, this time courtesy of Mock Draftable:
You can clearly see Howard has the height, agility and speed to make a difference at the pro level. But this also illustrates where Howard has some holes, with his low vertical jump, weight and lack of strength illustrated by his good but not great bench press numbers.
Conclusion
A lot of people like OJ Howard an awful lot. Mock drafts have him going in the late first, and he’s the first tight end off the board in most cases. His current DLF rookie ranking further supports him as it places him as the 9th best player in the draft. He certainly has the physical traits to put him at such a lofty ranking, but he is not a perfect player.
I would rate his blocking as decent but not great, and I worry about his ability to block effectively at the next level given his lack of strength. In terms of his playmaking ability, as I mentioned earlier, too many of his really big plays came courtesy of busted coverages. One last bit I would note is that I also saw signs of a lack of will at times – Howard looked slow or lost on plays away from his side of the field, and I honestly didn’t see a lot of hustle plays from him.
Still, a 6’6” beast with a 4.51 forty time is awfully hard to ignore. Some folks think he just wasn’t in the right program to highlight his talents, an argument which does have some merit. Perhaps Howard just needs the right situation and right pro offense to unleash his elite measurables on the NFL. I’d hate to miss out on the monstrous potential that may be there, but I’m not sure I could spend the 1.07 or so pick to guarantee I get him.
[/am4show]
- Sunday Six Pack: Week Seven - October 25, 2020
- DLF’s Dynasty Predictions: Fantasy MVP - September 8, 2020
- DLF’s Dynasty Predictions: Fantasy Rookie of the Year - September 7, 2020
This guy’s a total boss, tops at his position among rookie TEs this time around. Tape and testing I’ve seen doesn’t suggest a lack of strength in any way, shape, or form. He’ll be fine blocking in-line, probably get thrown around a bit for the first year or two, but name a rookie TE (or any offensive player) who’s ready to block monsters at the NFL level right off the bat? Four years of practice against NFL caliber defensive specimens at Alabama can’t be underestimated in terms of next level development. I think that’s part of the reason for his underwhelming receiving stats, he was too valuable in pass pro because of his trusty blocking.
Seems likely he’ll go top 12 in the real draft and top 8 seems just right for rookie drafts. Dynasty TE ranks are a mess after the top 5 or 6, so I’ll gladly take the plunge on OJ and all his upside with the hopes that he crashes the middle TE1 ranks sooner than later. Landing spot will solidify things on my board, but right now I’ve got him squarely inside my top 10 overall and comfortable with it. He was admittedly underused at Alabama (Saban’s own words, multiple occasions), dominated Senior Bowl week, and has aced his pre-draft testing/interviews. What’s not to like???
I think there is a very strong possibility that OJ Howard becomes a monster tight end in the league. But I have to say that my analysis of a lot of film showed a player with more holes than I expected, given his reputation. I’m not suggesting he’s any kind of bust, but I think a lot of folks are thinking him a Sure Thing, and I’m not sure he’s that (or there is such a thing really.)
Howard’s big plays were too often a result of the scheme rather than his ability to make a play. I didn’t see him bowl anyone over, nor did I see him elude any tackles. I want to see that kind of ability to rate someone really high in that area. (Look at some Njoku tape, and you’ll see what I’m talking about.)
And while his blocking is much better than many college tight ends, he still has a lot of work to do in this area. Also remember that he had the benefit of blocking at the end of the Alabama line, which I believe helped make his overall blocking ability look better than it was.
Still, if he’s there at 1.07 do I take him? I very well might. His upside is certainly vast, it just isn’t assured.
Nothing’s ever assured, even with highly touted blue chip rookies. When it comes to OJH though, I’m encouraged by his seemingly high character and work ethic. I say seemingly because I can only go on media reports and my feel for him when dissecting his interviews/podium face time.
When Ebron went early to DET a few years ago, I had a feeling he wasn’t going to put in the work, just seemed too cocky and raw. While OJH gives an impression of budding professionalism even at the ripe old age of 22, along with an even keeled confidence versus cockiness.
We’ll see. I’d love for him end up on NYG somehow, would be glove in hand kind of fit in my opinion.
That’s interesting. Because the whispers that I have heard is that some think he doesn’t have the heart. I suppose we’ll soon find out!
Excellent piece on OJ.
Hey, what’s the range of rookie picks you’d spend to acquire Howard in a TE premium league? Would have to be higher than the 1.07, no.
Yes, at least a couple picks higher – I figure the 1.04 if you want to guarantee you get him. This also assumes there are no other wrinkles in the league, like PPC or Superflex.
Thanks Ryan. My quandary, I like OJ a lot, especially in TE premium, but am legit conflicted over whether I’d take OJ over Mike Williams and/or Cook if they happen to fall to 1.04. Can’t believe I’m really considering it!
I think I’d have to take Cook, but I could see taking him over Mike Williams. Some really love Williams, but some are lukewarm on him. I do feel WRs tend to be OVER rated in drafts.
Exactly! Some of the NFL network analysis makes no sense. Charlie Casserly’s take on Williams for instance. He says Mike is a better WR than Hopkins, has the best hands in the draft possibly better than anybody “he’s ever scouted”, and is the best WR in this class. Yet, he can’t separate and that’s the #1 reason WR’s fail in NFL. Holy conflicting analysis batman.
