Movers and Shakers – Tight Ends

Eric Hardter

When it comes to the “off-season,” in my opinion there are three critical zones of dynasty value influence:  free agency, the draft, and training camp.  With the former grinding to a halt, and there being months before the 2017 NFL Draft, it seemed as good a time as any to update my positional rankings.  However, instead of simply moving players around and modernizing my comments, I decided to focus in on those who experienced a significant shift in my subjective valuation – the “movers and shakers,” if you will.

I’ll provide expanded thoughts on these players particularly, at all four positions.  Included below is a listing of the players, along with my rankings of them both before and after my update.  As a reminder, our rankings go 50 deep at both quarterback and tight end, and 100 strong at running back and wide receiver.

One final note:  I tend to skew towards the conservative end of valuation.  I value productivity over youth, and am often loathe to bump up unproven players to the ranks of the dynasty elite when they’ve yet to show anything at the NFL level.  Depending on the specific player, this has worked both to my advantage and to my detriment in the past.  Regardless, for those who think similarly, or those who adopt a diametrically opposed process, I hope this will serve as some food for thought.

I already evaluated the quarterbacks, running backs and wide receivers, so let’s conclude today with the tight ends!

Risers

Jack Doyle, IND

TE23 to TE10

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To think, I thought I was a bit of a renaissance man having at TE23!  Indeed, it was likely considered “cute” by many who simply knew Doyle was destined to be nothing more than a flash in the pan, one hit wonder.  And then, the Colts followed through with a nifty little financial investment of nearly $20 million ($9.5 million guaranteed), and traded away the once promising Dwayne Allen.  To be clear, this doesn’t mean Doyle is going to usurp all of the tight end targets, but he’s a smart bet to improve on 2016’s 75 looks.  If last year is any indicator, he’ll convert a bunch of those into receptions (78.7% conversion last season), and chip in enough scores to function as a high-floor option at the position.  Ultimately, there’s nothing wrong with that, especially at this position.  There aren’t more than five to six guys with elite ceilings, and it’s unlikely half of them will even reach said heights.  I have no qualms considering this guy as deserving of inclusion in the TE1 tier.

Tyler Higbee, LAR

TE29 to TE22

Higbee didn’t do anything in his rookie season, but that’s neither unusual nor unacceptable, especially in an offense that produced only one viable passing game target.  But he’s big enough and fast enough to develop into a contributor, and new head coach Sean McVay squeezed 110 receptions for 1,269 yards and eight scores out of the combination of Jordan Reed and Vernon Davis in Washington last season.  Higbee isn’t as good as the former, but could be better than the latter at this stage in his career.  The depth chart cleared out with the loss of Lance Kendricks, meaning it should be Higbee’s show in 2017.

Coby Fleener, NO

TE33 to TE24

This isn’t an admission that Fleener is good at football.  He isn’t.  Don’t let anyone tell you otherwise.  But someone is going to have to catch the ball in New Orleans following the Brandin Cooks trade, and as such there’s decent potential for Fleener’s target share increasing (unless you remain a Josh Hill truther).  It likely won’t be enough to place him on the TE1 radar, but for a streaming option you good do worse, I guess.  Now if you’ll excuse me, I need to take a scalding hot shower, as this paragraph has left me feeling forever unclean.

Dion Sims, CHI

NR to TE30

There was a time where I had Sims ranked as a top 40-ish guy at the position, but he simply didn’t do enough for me to keep him in my rankings.  As always though, I’ll follow the money, and the Bears actually gave him slightly more guarantees than Doyle above.  With only the injury-prone Zach Miller “ahead” of him on the depth chart, I’m more than willing to reconsider his standing.  I wouldn’t even want him as my TE2, but you could do worse for and end-of-bench stash.

Erik Swoope, IND

TE43 to TE31

Destined to be this year’s Demetrius Harris off-season puff piece all-star, I think there are folks who are more excited about Swoope than they are about Doyle above.  I get it, it’s fun to hypothesize about his breakout because he’s big, fast, and checks the requisite stud tight end box of being a former collegiate basketball player.  And I’ll give him some due with a nice tier bump in my rankings because Allen is gone, but beyond that he’s a prospect like so many others.  I might honestly be using him as a trade throw in, if it helps me get 5-10% closer to my desired goal.  Ultimately, I firmly believe it’s Doyle’s show in Indy, and am not paying Swoope much mind.

Fallers

Zach Miller, CHI

TE30 to TE36

This isn’t some Shakespearian tragedy.  Miller was somewhat useful when he was healthy, but as has been the case his entire career, he simply couldn’t put a full season together.  Wisely, the Bears chose to get younger and more competitive at the position by bringing in Sims.  There’s still a chance the veteran could win the job outright, but banking on a year’s worth of unimpeded production is foolhardy.  I’m not dropping him from my roster, but my expectations have been tempered accordingly.

Clive Walford, OAK

TE30 to TE40

After a decent freshman campaign, Walford sank into uselessness in an utterly forgettable year two season.  Not shockingly, the Raiders brought in Jared Cook to usurp starting duties, and his speed should match up well with quarterback Derek Carr’s ability to drive the ball down the field.  Walford is barely rosterable at this point, as a slower, relatively older (he’ll turn 26 in his third season) option, and simply doesn’t possess enough upside to warrant consideration as even a streaming option.

Richard Rodgers, GB

TE32 to TE43

There’s a case to be made for Rodgers being a better player than Walford, but the fact is the Packers have brought two players into the fold in successive years (Cook and Martellus Bennett) to handle starting tight end duties.  Once again, I’m letting the NFL guide me here.  The Packers brass clearly isn’t happy with having a “catch and fall” guy at the position, and Rodgers appears destined for his third season under 300 yards.  I suppose a case could be made for rostering him solely based on his impending 2018 foray into free agency, but you’d have to really believe that Green Bay mismanaged his on-field worth in order to do so.  I’m not banking on it.

Find me on Twitter @EDH_27

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eric hardter