Rookie Profile: Alvin Kamara, RB Tennessee
Editor’s note: With the NFL Draft fast approaching, we’ll be covering the incoming skill position players in-depth with our rookie profiles. Using information from Player Profiler and Mock Draftable, we offer a taste of what each player has done, their athletic profile, and what they can achieve in the future.
Alvin Kamara is one of this year’s most polarizing prospects. After spending most of the season as a projected mid-second round rookie draft pick, he’s shot up our draft boards in the new year after positive reports from “NFL folk” and an explosive performance at the combine. Despite this, there seemed to be a form of backlash from the dynasty community, many of whom believe he simply isn’t in the same realm as the other top backs a class full of depth. I set out to investigate.
The Stats
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When Rob Willette made a case for Kamara back in February, I was made aware just how little production he had in college, despite the excitement about the talent. Here are the numbers he put up in the two years he played (after redshirting as a freshman in Alabama, transferring to Hutchinson Community College in Kansas, then eventually ending up in Tennessee):
Statistics from Sports-Reference.com.
He has little to show, but it’s because he was used as a complementary back. In 2015, fellow backfield-mate Jalen Hurd tallied 277 carries and 1,288 yards compared to Kamara’s 107 and 698. Â His quarterback, Josh Dobbs, also totted up 146 carries.
Last year, he again fell behind Dobbs’ 150 totes, and his 103 carries were in the middle of a three-way committee with Hurd (122) and sophomore John Kelly (98). However, he was clearly the best receiver of the group, with 392 yards through the air while the other two failed to top 100. Perhaps the most impressive part of Kamara’s collegiate career was his scoring efficiency, having totalled 23 touchdowns from scrimmage on 284 touches (he even added one more score on a punt return in 2015).
We can take all of this in two ways. Was he simply under-utilized, but possesses all the talent to be a star back? Or was his lack of production because he couldn’t beat out the other backs and might not be able to cut it at the next level? For NFL folks, it seems to be the former, as he’s been projected as a first round pick in many places and sits at number 28 overall in Matt Miller’s latest top 50. Why is there such an infatuation with a player who doesn’t have much to show from his college career?
The Film
If you want to see Kamara’s capabilities with your own eyes, look no further than his highlight tape.
What can we glean from here? For me, it’s not a dazzling highlight video. The first couple of clips don’t exactly show off his long speed, as he almost gets caught from behind on the first and does on the second. He shows a good amount of “burst” throughout, blazing through the first line of defense with gusto, but isn’t going to fly away from tacklers like Leonard Fournette or Dalvin Cook will. He showcases some great open field excitement and makes defenders miss, but are those same abilities available on every down?
After watching Kamara’s seven videos on Draft Breakdown, I can safely say I’m even more unsure of his future role in the NFL. He flashes brilliance, then stumbles after a weak ankle tackle. He’ll plow four defenders over on the way to the end zone, then run into the back of his linemen. I understand why some people project him as a first round pick, while others may not even have him in their top ten backs.
As a runner, he’s direct and aggressive. This can be of huge benefit when an open lane is created, as he gets to the second level in a hurry. His legs are thick, and he has a low center of gravity to (sometimes) break multiple tackles. His patience is great, as he allows blocks to develop and takes advantage of opportunities for cutbacks, but his open field vision can sometimes be lacking. While his legs churn and he has astonishing hurdling ability, he can be taken down quite easily when tackled high. Above all, he’s unpredictable.
Kamara’s true value comes in his all-round ability and versatility. While he doesn’t look like a future feature back, he can run inside the tackles and look comfortable. Out of the backfield, he’s extremely comfortable as a pass-catcher, a route-runner, and can even line up outside. He’ll also be another option as a returner for the team who drafts him, and could simply be a dynamic element who’s a better NFL option than fantasy one.
The Metrics
Our Travis May predicted Kamara would show up strong at the combine with his burst, and he did just that. Accoring to Player Profiler, he is in the 94th-percentile in “Burst Score” (which “sums a player’s Vertical Jump height and Broad Jump distance.”)
Again, on his Mock Draftable player page we can see the explosiveness as an athlete.
I don’t think it should come as a surprise that he showed off an insane jumping ability. He topped all running backs in the vert jump and broad jump, but it was clear he had a spring in his step from the things he’s done in the past two years. Also, the 4.56 number is just fine for someone who likely won’t win a 40 yard foot race, and instead will use shorter, more aggressive bursts of speed. What he did do at the combine that doesn’t show up here was shared by NFL Network’s Bucky Brooks:
He will walk out of Indy as the biggest winner in RB class. He crushed the interviews. High football IQ & great personality.. https://t.co/mzdGqJ8ijp
— Bucky Brooks (@BuckyBrooks) March 3, 2017
Even if we might not be so sure on him as a dynasty asset, it he might have shown enough to the NFL to be a late first round or early second round selection. We have to take him seriously.
The Conclusion
As of the time of writing, Kamara is going on average at tenth overall in the live rookie drafts conducted by Scott Fish. As things currently stand , it’s a fair place for him to go. I wouldn’t be comfortable taking him higher than number eight, but he’s in a group of players who could have clear and defined roles early on, depending on their situation.
In recent years, I’ve learned to listen to the NFL, and if Kamara is taken early by a team with a clear idea he’ll be “the guy” and little competition, he’ll move up in my rankings. If asked to be a complementary player alongside an existing lead rusher, I might steer clear early in drafts. Keep a close eye on his draft position and landing spot at the end of April, and don’t be afraid to invest if he ends up in a situation that’ll catapult his opportunity.
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As well as editing for DLF, James writes for Sky Sports and can be found on Twitter at @JS_Football
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