Ageless Wonder Or Age, Less Wonder?

TJ Calkins Posted On March 11, 2017

With NFL Free Agency upon us, there are two household names available at the running back position because they are nearing (or are at) the twilight of their careers. For the last decade, Jamaal Charles and Adrian Peterson have been two of the best backs in the NFL, and arguably the two most influential to the dynasty landscape during that period. They both have a long history of elite production, but what’s more, they have that history playing for the team that drafted them. Now that they are free agents destined to depart from the teams they’ve served their entire careers, the broad and obvious question is – what’s next? As we can see from our ADP Comparison Tool, they’re following similar value arcs:

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Adrian Peterson

Peterson is the less fun of the two to discuss, as he’s best discussed in the past tense. Just two weeks shy of his 32nd birthday it’s not only fair, but also prudent, to wonder how much he can possibly bring to an NFL team, and more importantly, to your dynasty team.

The answer is likely very little to both. A certain two down grinder that would be fully volume dependent is not a good mix with a 32nd birthday celebration. Age 32 production from a running back is an extremely rare occurrence, and to use the arbitrary-yet-popular 1000 yard rushing season measuring stick, it has happened only three times in the current millennia, and not since 2009 when Ricky Williams did so in Miami.

What would Peterson need to break this eight year drought? Volume in the 250 carry range is the reasonable and obvious answer which illustrates the vast unlikelihood of this happening. It seems an impossibility that an NFL team would commit to such volume and even if they did, it seems even more unlikely that his body would withstand the workload and continue to perform at an effective level. However given his track record, he will likely find a team to play for eventually, albeit with a reduced or split workload. This brings even more red flags and eyebrow raising as a time share is a daunting thing for an ineffective pass catcher.

He has never caught more than 43 passes in a season and the last time he hit 40, it was still Obama’s first term. Despite being such a snap hoarder for his entire Minnesota career, he’s never earned more than 57 targets in a season and earned more than 40 targets in a season a mere three times. This is the exact formula for what you do not want in a time share back. (Note that he carries far more one year value in non-PPR formats, yet should still be viewed as no better than a mid to low RB2).

Dynasty Prognosis: Take what you can get and cut bait. There is a market out there for him and you can likely get a pick with which to buy an RB in the middle of this current rookie draft *cough Wayne Gallman, cough Kareem Hunt* to increase both your production and longevity.

Potential Favorable Landing Spots: Oakland, Minnesota*, New York Giants, Seattle. *There is a real chance he ends up back in Minnesota after striking out with the rest of the league and Minnesota being in dire need of an early down back.

Dark Horse: Philadelphia – I haven’t seen any reports linking him there, but Philly is on a spending spree and seem determined to make Carson Wentz’ job as easy as possible. This assumes they cut ties with Ryan Mathews.

Jamaal Charles

JC is certainly the more intriguing of the two backs for the next season or two. The ’17 season will be his age 30 season and unlike Peterson, he’s a phenomenal player in the passing game and would not be reliant on a heavy early down rushing workload.

Since his rookie year, he’s only had one full season (not cut short due to injury) where he failed to tally at least 40 catches and was on pace for 67 more catches before going down in’15. His ’16 season was a complete loss due to complications from the ’15 injury and subsequent surgeries and this has made him quite a potential difference maker with a discounted price tag. JC has never needed to be a volume player to be effective and would fit incredibly well in a timeshare as a somewhat infrequent runner and a frequent pass catcher that offers RB2 viability with room for more without any steep workload requirements.

When trying to come up with a comparison for Charles, considering age, skillset and overall ability, the best one I could come up with was Marshall Faulk. After Faulk’s age 28 season, he went from being a 250+ carry per season back to playing four more seasons as a back that saw less than 213 carries in every season yet still saw an average of 71 targets each year to maintain fantasy scoring viability. By comparison, Charles would be in the second year of the aforementioned four year Faulk window, and is coming off of missing nearly two full seasons, so he’s no surefire hit. However, health permitting, he will always have the high end skill set to be a difference maker on the field and for dynasty rosters . He’s likely an inexpensive buy that offers real upside for those needing RB help.

Dynasty Prognosis: He’s a price dependent buy, so perhaps it would be best to try and swap out different similarly aged assets first before selling any long term assets, as there is health risk involved here.

Potential Favorable Landing Spots: Oakland, Seattle, any team in need of a pass catching back. Every team that doesn’t have the likes of a Le’Veon Bell or David Johnson in place would benefit from having Charles available.

Dark Horse: San Diego – This is the dark horse location, as he’s not been linked here at all and is unlikely to be, but Melvin Gordon and Charles could be the perfect complements to each other after the departure of Danny Woodhead. If you’re a Melvin owner and just cringed, fear not, this is nearly an impossibility.

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