Running Back Confidence Zones: Part Four
With free agency and the NFL draft approaching; it’s time to look at the 2017 RB situation for these backfield starters. At the beginning of every season, teams and fantasy owners alike seem to think they know exactly how each backfield will play out. Unfortunately, it’s not always how we planned it to be. Heck, sometimes wide receivers decide to become running backs and none if it seems to make any sense. That’s where I come in. I’m going to try to make sense of what has developed and what confidence level you should have about a lot of these backs you may own going into the 2017 free agency and NFL draft season. I will dig into starters, not passing or third down backs since those specialists are usually pretty safe.
My confidence zone is based on a few things; how good I feel the player is, how durable they have been, contract status, and how likely they are to be replaced or receive significant company heading into the 2017 season from free agency and this hefty draft class. The last time a draft was projected to be this deep was 2008 when Matt Forte, Chris Johnson, Ray Rice, Darren McFadden, Jonathan Stewart, Rashard Mendenhall, Jamaal Charles, Steve Slaton, Kevin Smith and Tashard Choice came out. Even Tim Hightower, Justin Forsett and Danny Woodhead came out that year and were late rounder’s or undrafted. All of the player’s above (besides Tashard Choice) are or were able to sustain fantasy usefulness (a season of RB2 production). To put it in perspective, the 2017 class is so deep that Barry Sanders wouldn’t be a Top-25 rated back. Sure, it’s Barry Sanders Jr., but still.
We finish up with the ‘Panic Zone’:
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The Panic Zone – 39-0% confidence in having a productive role in 2017
Every year a crop of talent comes in and displaces our dynasty runners and we’re left with the remains of once valuable players. This group of running backs I fully expect to see significant competition for a starting gig and to eventually lose their starting jobs. The reasons will vary from a lack of talent, durability, age, etc. Sound the alarm for:
22. Jeremy Hill – Cincinnati Bengals
Hill had a terrific breakout season as a rookie in 2014, but has been a dynasty let down since. He’s had remarkably consistent touches with 222 in 2014, 223 in 2015, and 222 in 2016. His touches might be consistent, but his performances have been disappointing. Hill lacks vision and is too indecisive to be a productive back without elite linemen. He also doesn’t have much agility or top-end speed. What you get is a battering ram that stutter steps at the line and loses all momentum when finally deciding where to go.
The Bengals have a ton of other more important needs, but they also have 11 draft picks and some solid cap space. I wouldn’t be stunned if the Bengals don’t bring in a viable back, but I’m not willing to gamble on that. This isn’t to mention that he had five of seven games of 15+ carries when Gio Bernard went down compared to only three of eight when Bernard was healthy. Even if minimal competition is added, I don’t think Hill will be a confident weekly option considering his likely touchdown dependence. Sell if you can.
Confidence Zone: 39%
23. Ameer Abdullah – Detroit Lions
Abdullah lasted just over one game last season for the Lions. He looked solid in week one and produced 22 fantasy points. He would be higher on my list if he had a bigger frame, the Lions didn’t have the best pass catching specialist, 400 other running backs on the roster, a ton of cap space, and eight draft picks. He has a ton of bullets to dodge and I don’t know how confident I can be in that.
Out of everyone this low, Abdullah has by far the most 2017 surprise upside. If the chips fall in his favor he can be a solid RB2 producer. I’m buying Abdullah for a third and hope the Lions are happy with their running back smorgasbord as is.
Confidence Zone: 33%
24. Frank Gore – Indianapolis Colts
Gore is officially the crap that won’t flush. He does just enough to stick around. He’s the poster child for reliability and consistency. In his last ten years he’s had between 60.4 and 80.0 yards per game on the ground. If you take out his injury shortened 2010, he’s had between 967 and 1214 yards each season. That’s a range of 247 yards. Gore has made a career of not getting fantasy owners too high or too low. If he were a ride at a theme park, he’s the ride that even Grandma can enjoy without puking.
Sadly, all good things must come to an end and 2017 might be the end for Gore. What could save him for another season is that the Colts have holes everywhere and Gore is a good running back in all facets. When your line is a dumpster fire, it’s imperative you have a reliable running back in pass protection and that’s what Gore is. I still can’t believe he’s still productive after almost 3,000 carries. I’d say there’s a 30% chance he holds his job. You obviously can’t trade him and he’s probably worth a fourth round pick if you want to roll the dice on a 34 year old flex play.
Confidence Zone: 30%
25. Paul Perkins – New York Giants
Perkins had a solid end to the season and proved he had the ability to carry the ball 15+ times without wearing down at the end of games. He carried the ball 18.7 times a game in his final two seasons at UCLA and proved he could stay healthy and effective. The NFL is a different beast and Perkins may not have a chance to prove he’s capable over a full season. The good news for Perkins is that the Giants have needs along both lines and really need a playmaking tight end. The Giants also have a tight cap and may not be willing to pay a free agent back.
New York could take back as soon as round one, but I’d be surprised. I bet they wait until day three, or maybe day two if they really love a guy like Alvin Kamara. I wouldn’t be surprised to see a bigger back like D’Onta Foreman with Perkins. There are a lot of things in Perkins’ favor, but we know someone will be added to the backfield as Shane Vereen is the only viable option behind the current starter.
Confidence Zone: 30%
26. Jonathan Stewart – Carolina Panthers
This is where the list gets downright ugly with almost no hope of not getting a significant workload cut. Stewart hasn’t played more than 13 games since 2011, and hasn’t cleared 1,000 yards since 2009. He’s now going into his age 30 season and his yards per carry have come down each of the last three seasons.
The Panthers know they need more in the run game and they seem to know that Stewart isn’t the guy they need. At best, Stewart is looking at a passing down back being added. Realistically, his days of seeing 200 touches in a season are likely numbered and his fantasy value is as good as toast. Take what you can get now unless you want an injury prone flex player for one more season.
Confidence Zone: 25%
27. Doug Martin – Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Martin has very little going for him. The only thing in his favor is that he’s had two 1,400+ yard seasons in five years. That’s really it. The other three seasons were all short of 500 yards. What’s even more insane is that even if you had up all three of his non-1,400 yard seasons and combine them, they’re still less than his rookie and 2015 season. That’s 25 total games of worthlessness.
This off-season will be his biggest obstacle yet. You have a franchise flush of cap space, a player that had the worst yards per carry in the league, and he just dinged for substance abuse. Not to mention he’ll miss the first three weeks of the 2017 season because of suspension carry over. Martin needs a whole lot of luck on his side to avoid getting outright replaced. I’d say his odds are one in five.
Confidence Zone: 20%
28. TJ Yeldon/Chris Ivory – Jacksonville Jaguars
It’s hard to pick just one since they both rotated in and out throughout the season. Yeldon and Ivory were equally incompetent. In my opinion, Ivory is the better running back and if no company is added, he should be the starter with Yeldon mixing in. Yeldon is substantially better as a pass catcher, however. The concern for both is that the Jaguars have the third most cap space available and could really go shopping.
I’ve seen mocks with Fournette to the Jaguars in the first round, but I’d be surprised if they did that. Yeldon and Ivory owners better hope that the Jaguars brass blame the lack of production on the offensive line and they look to bolster that instead of spending equity on an elite back. I don’t know what to make of the Jaguars situation and I’m likely staying away from both players. Ivory could be had for a fourth and is the only one I’d consider taking on. Yeldon is a player I’ve disliked dating back to college and he’s done nothing to change my mind.
Confidence Zone: 20%
29. Ty Montgomery – Green Bay Packers
I hate to break hearts, but I’m going to cut to the chase. Montgomery isn’t a starting running back. For everyone concerned about Christian McCaffrey, they should multiply that by ten for Montgomery. McCaffrey is better in every facet of the game and Montgomery’s limited success shouldn’t get you too excited about his 2017 prospects. It would be a tragic mistake if the Packers don’t address the position early.
My guess is that Eddie Lacy gets almost no love in free agency and the Packers get him at a discount to pair him with Montgomery for 2017. Even if Lacy is re-signed, don’t be surprised to see the Packers drafting another back on day three. There’s an outside chance that Montgomery is the lead back next year, and that’s only because Mike McCarthy is a lunatic sometimes. Please trade Montgomery if someone in your league is willing to part with a late first or early second. Montgomery is firmly on my do not buy list.
Confidence Zone: 15%
30. Ryan Mathews – Philadelphia Eagles
The Eagles aren’t crazy. They can’t go in with Mathews as their starter. He performs well enough when healthy, but that’s rarely the case. There are also aggressive rumors that he’ll be cut or traded. Nobody is trading for him so he’s getting cut if the rumors are true. There’s also constant talk of the Eagles signing a significant free agent or drafting a day one or day two running back.
There’s an outside chance the cap situation becomes too dire and the Eagles spend their time filling other voids. If that’s the case, look for them to at least draft a day three back that will try to put pressure on the oft-injured Mathews. Not to mention, Twitter darling (for obvious reasons), Wendell Smallwood, could earn the starting job outright. Sell Mathews for what you can and move on. Save that IR spot for someone else.
Confidence Zone: 10%
31. James White – New England Patriots
The Super Bowl performance might have earned White an outside shot at a legitimate role in 2017. Who knows if he even wins the passing down role over Dion Lewis, but when you’re the (real) Super Bowl MVP you at least deserve credit in this article. Billy Belichick is always throwing dynasty owners for a loop and White could see a role as a primary receiving back while mixing in five to ten carries a game.
Who am I kidding? That was all just a dream scenario. The Patriots are top five in cap space and LeGarrette Blount is a free agent. White better hope they re-sign Blount and keep things status quo. Move White if you still can.
Confidence Zone: 10%
32. Taiwan Jones/DeAndre Washington/Jalen Richard – Oakland Raiders
Yeah….. No. There’s almost a zero percent chance the Raiders don’t bring in a day one starter at running back. I really like Jalen Richard but I don’t think he’s suited for anywhere near the workload required. The Raiders have a ton of cap space and should be considered a contender in the AFC.
My hunch says Adrian Peterson trades places with Latavius Murray and this trio go back to mopping up the scraps. If they skip on Peterson, I think Wayne Gallman would be a solid fit for the Raiders. The only one of those three I’m buying is Richard, and only for a fourth round pick. He could have some flex appeal in 2017.
Confidence Zone: 5%
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- Rookie Profile: Josh Reynolds, WR Texas A&M - April 26, 2017
- Running Back Confidence Zones: Part Four - March 8, 2017
- Running Back Confidence Zones: Part Three - March 8, 2017
