Running Back Confidence Zones: Part Three
With free agency and the NFL draft approaching; it’s time to look at the 2017 RB situation for these backfield starters. At the beginning of every season, teams and fantasy owners alike seem to think they know exactly how each backfield will play out. Unfortunately, it’s not always how we planned it to be. Heck, sometimes wide receivers decide to become running backs and none if it seems to make any sense. That’s where I come in. I’m going to try to make sense of what has developed and what confidence level you should have about a lot of these backs you may own going into the 2017 free agency and NFL draft season. I will dig into starters, not passing or third down backs since those specialists are usually pretty safe.
My confidence zone is based on a few things; how good I feel the player is, how durable they have been, contract status, and how likely they are to be replaced or receive significant company heading into the 2017 season from free agency and this hefty draft class. The last time a draft was projected to be this deep was 2008 when Matt Forte, Chris Johnson, Ray Rice, Darren McFadden, Jonathan Stewart, Rashard Mendenhall, Jamaal Charles, Steve Slaton, Kevin Smith and Tashard Choice came out. Even Tim Hightower, Justin Forsett and Danny Woodhead came out that year and were late rounder’s or undrafted. All of the player’s above (besides Tashard Choice) are or were able to sustain fantasy usefulness (a season of RB2 production). To put it in perspective, the 2017 class is so deep that Barry Sanders wouldn’t be a Top-25 rated back. Sure, it’s Barry Sanders Jr., but still.
It’s time to take a look at the ‘Anxiety Zone’:
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The Anxiety Zone – 59-40% confidence in having a productive starting role in 2017
In most years, this group would actually be in the comfort zone. This year, this group could be replaced and all it takes is one night in late April. If I own these players, I’m taking Xanax from now until May. Stop at the pharmacy and pick-up your prescriptions if you own:
16. Spencer Ware – Kansas City Chiefs
Not much is different with Ware and many listed previously in terms of situation. The reason he headlines my anxiety zone is that I just don’t think he’s very good. He struggled mightily from week seven on. He averaged 53.6 yards per game on 14.8 carries. He also sputtered to a 3.6 yards per carry average in those final eight games. I’d be surprised if the Chiefs don’t seriously address the position. How aggressively they do so is the mystery.
I have one share of Ware and I’m not sure why he’s still on my roster. If you want to hold Ware, you better hope the Chiefs decide to bring in a passing game specialist and leave Ware as the primary bruiser. He’s good at what he does, but he doesn’t do enough of anything else to justify a starting gig. Despite my negative thoughts, the Chiefs don’t have a ton of cap flexibility and could end up shoring up other positions rather than investing heavily in a back. Ware would be lower on my list if the Chiefs had some more cap space.
Confidence Zone: 58%
17. Thomas Rawls – Seattle Seahawks
Rawls had a 2016 to forget. He couldn’t stay healthy, and when on the field, he couldn’t get anything going. In limited time, CJ Prosise looked the better of the two. The problem is that both had tiny sample sizes in 2016. I think a healthy off-season will do Rawls a lot of good. Pete Carroll says the starting gig is up for grabs and Rawls doesn’t have much to overcome. Prosise has serious durability issues and is not a workhorse back. The Seahawks will likely move forward with Rawls as the thunder and Prosise as the lightning.
Why am I so low on Rawls if I don’t expect much to change? The draft is full of power backs and the Seahawks have two backs that seemingly can’t stay healthy. It won’t be a surprise to see the Seahawks draft a back on day three and it would put Rawls on notice. If you own Rawls, he’s a firm hold. If you can get him for a discount from a frustrated and worried owner, I’d do it. He looked so good in 2015 behind the same terrible offensive line that I still have hope for a comeback.
Confidence Zone: 55%
18. Rob Kelley – Washington Redskins
Kelley came out of nowhere to take the starting job from the fumbling Matt Jones. Most would have Kelley lower than this, but he was a couple of things in his advantage. First, a lot of the good/great running backs in this draft and even in free agency are power backs. Second, Kelley proved to be reliable with the ball in his hands and rarely lost yardage. The Redskins are likely to pass on an elite back unless they feel the value is too good.
Before the combine I was worried about Dalvin Cook being a Redskin, but his poor showing could easily drop him into the 20’s come draft night. Kelley is a replaceable level talent, but the Redskins have bigger holes to fill. I just don’t see the need for the Redskins to draft a guy like Samaje Perine, when they already have him on the roster. I’d feel so much better about him if he wasn’t so bland. Kelley can’t fetch much in a trade right now, so you’re better off holding unless you can get an early second.
Confidence Zone: 50%
19. Jerick McKinnon – Minnesota Vikings
When Adrian Peterson went down, McKinnon owners selfishly rejoiced. He received the bulk of the carries in the few weeks with Peterson out, but failed to impress. Matt Asiata became a thing again, and McKinnon owners were left with a broken heart. The greatest athletic combine performer ever (at the running back position) showed terrific progress his first two season.
McKinnon isn’t a technical runner, so he can’t create plays relying on vision and instincts. He needs properly blocked running lanes to exploit and will never be confused for an elite improviser. The Vikings offensive line got decimated and McKinnon stood little chance at success. Now with Peterson gone, and Asiata testing the market, McKinnon has the backfield to himself.
The Vikings will draft a back, but the good news for McKinnon is that the Vikings offloaded their first round pick to the Eagles in the deal for Bradford. The Vikings also have a ton of needs in the trenches. Offensive linemen and defensive tackles should be a focus for the purple and gold. Look for the position to be addressed sometime in day three, and it could be enough to give McKinnon another shot at paying useful dividends. Keep an eye on Latavius Murray in free agency. A broke, toothless man’s version of Adrian Peterson could complicate things for McKinnon owners. I’m buying McKinnon for an early third if I can and he’s a hold as an owner.
Confidence Zone: 50%
20. Kenneth Dixon – Baltimore Ravens
Before Harbaugh came out with a vote of confidence for Dixon, he was a few spots lower than this. Coach speak is a thing, but Harbaugh could have been neutral in his comments if he wanted to. He didn’t say these things about Terrance West, so there must be some truth to it. The problem with Dixon is that he didn’t get a chance to show whether he was capable of carrying a heavy load or not. The most carries he got in a game was 13, and that’s with backup quality West as his competition. They split down the stretch and game script dictated a few of the games. Another flag is that the Ravens ran the ball a league low 34% of the time. Is that a lack of faith in their backs, or an offensive philosophy? Either way, it’s bad news.
Dixon has the tools to be a an all-around back, but I don’t know if he’s good enough in between the tackles to be anything more than a passing down specialist. The Ravens will surely bring in a running back, but my guess is they wait until day three. They have way too many other needs to address. For those who are superstitious, the Ravens have only drafted a running back in the first round once in team history and that was Jamal Lewis in 2000. My player comp for Leonard Fournette is Jamal Lewis. If he falls to 16, maybe the rumors become true. All of this enough to drop Dixon below 50% confidence and he becomes a sell for an early second pick.
Confidence Zone: 45%
21. Matt Forte – New York Jets
At this point, Forte isn’t going to create many extra yards. He’ll only take what the offensive line gets him, but I guess that’s still a positive trait that not all running backs have. He still has some power to break tackles, but he’s not juking anyone, nor is he breaking away. The presence of Bilal Powell caps Forte’s ceiling as well. Forte has been known throughout his career as one of the most versatile backs in the NFL, but Powell took most of the third down work away Forte. It’s safe to say that that won’t change in 2017.
Forte would be lower on this list, but he signed a hefty contract last off-season and the Jets only have seven draft picks with a few greater needs at the moment. The issue Forte faces is that the draft should have a few early down backs left later in day three and a guy like James Conner could take the short yardage role immediately. Look for the Jets to trade the sixth overall pick as rumors suggest and snag some more draft picks to fill all of their positional needs. This backfield could see a three way dispersal of touches and send Forte’s dynasty usefulness to the gutter. He has no value to trade away at the moment, so most owners just need to sit on him and hope.
Confidence Zone: 40%
Coming in part four: The Panic Zone
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- Rookie Profile: Josh Reynolds, WR Texas A&M - April 26, 2017
- Running Back Confidence Zones: Part Four - March 8, 2017
- Running Back Confidence Zones: Part Three - March 8, 2017
