Welcome to the 20/20 series. As part of our continued Dynasty Scouts coverage and in preparation for the NFL Combine, we’ll be profiling 20 of the top incoming rookies of the class of 2017 by giving you 20 facts you must know.
1.) Player Name — Christian McCaffrey
2.) College — Stanford University
3.) Height/Weight — 6-foot-0 inches, 200 pounds
4.) Birth date — June 7, 1996
5.) Class — Junior
6.) Basic college stats —Â
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7.) NFL Draft round projection — Late first round to mid second round.
8.) Current NFL comp — Devonta Freeman. The Falcons star ran a lackluster 4.58 second forty at the NFL combine in 2014, but has found ways to gain his yards through shifty footwork and excellent cutback vision. Both players catch the ball away from their body with their hands. Freeman has blossomed into an elite dynasty asset due to his well-rounded skillset, and McCaffrey could yield similar production in the right scheme.
9.) Best possible destination — Among realistic landing spots (based on projected draft value) the New York Giants (23rd overall) represent the most attractive landing spot. There is no entrenched starter and touches would quickly be funneled to a high draft pick.
10.) Worst possible destination — Among realistic landing spots (based on projected draft value) the Atlanta Falcons (31st overall) are the worst possible destination. The Super Bowl runners-up already have two talented running backs under the age of 25. Adding McCaffrey to the mix would create a fantasy nightmare.
11.) Best current skill — Footwork. McCaffrey displays impressive change of direction and cutting abilities, and it’s because his feet never stop moving. See below for few visual examples of how his footwork helps him create extra yards.
I mean, look at this. Christian McCaffrey is a slalom skier. pic.twitter.com/DBwoML170H
— Josh Norris (@JoshNorris) February 17, 2017
Look at this, man. Eyes and feet are so in sync. Christian McCaffrey is smooth. pic.twitter.com/hAHJVFHN68
— Josh Norris (@JoshNorris) February 17, 2017
12.) Skill that needs to be improved — It’s not a skill, but McCaffrey might benefit from adding five to ten pounds to better withstand the physicality at the NFL level.
13.) Past/current rookie ADP — We don’t have any rookie ADP data yet, so we’ll look at our 2017 class rankings. Our Scouts team ranks McCaffrey anywhere from third to ninth overall, and his average rank is sixth overall. Among running back prospects, he ranks fourth behind Dalvin Cook, Leonard Fournette, and Joe Mixon.
14.) Projected dynasty value — McCaffrey should be a mid-first round pick in most dynasty rookie drafts. In the February DLF Staff startup mock draft (currently underway), McCaffrey was selected 49th overall (5.01).
15.) Needs a fake ID on draft night — Still just 20 years old, McCaffrey is one of the youngest players in this year’s draft.
16.) Special Teams contributor — McCaffrey led all FBS players in 2015 with 3,864 all-purpose yards, bolstered by over 1,200 combined return yards. He scored touchdowns returning kickoffs and returning punts. This could lead to hidden value early in his career if he is selected by a team willing to use him on special teams.
17.) Can he be a workhorse?— According to an AFC Pro Personnel Director, draft grades could vary widely because some teams may only view McCaffrey as a complementary back.
18.) Forty time uncertainty — There seems to be disagreement about McCaffrey’s forty speed, or perhaps the athlete is still learning the event. I’ve read mock-combine hand-timed reports placing him anywhere from 4.46 seconds to 4.6 seconds. That’s a wide range of results. I clocked the back at 4.5 seconds in the video below:
Here it is again: Replaced @CMccaffrey5 40 yard dash video so his time can’t be revealed. #9Sports pic.twitter.com/t24QDpVg7x
— 9NEWS Sports Denver (@9NEWSSports) February 9, 2017
I’m a fan of the work of @Cole_Kev regarding running back predictors of success. Cole’s study unveiled that the combine results most highly correlated with posting a top-12 fantasy season within the first three years of a running back’s career are forty time and weight. Since McCaffrey weighs in on the lighter side, his speed will be extremely important to his NFL success.
19.) Team player? — Eyebrows were raised when McCaffrey opted out of Stanford’s bowl game this year to avoid injury and to begin training for the NFL combine. He reportedly received an ovation from his teammates after making the announcement, but I would expect scouts to ask a question or two on this topic at the combine to explore any possible concerns about his devotion to team goals.
20.) It’s all in the family — McCaffrey’s father, Ed, spent thirteen seasons in the NFL as a productive wide receiver. He won three Super Bowls (one with the 49ers, two with the Broncos) and was voted first team All-Pro in 1998.
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I just can’t get excited about this guy. I’m concerned he will never be a consistent dynasty player.
Also, I don’t hold it against players for sitting out bowl games. I think this will quickly become the norm. Ultimately, it’s the NFL and money these kids play for.
It’s because he’s white. When have you seen a white RB dominate like mccaffrey?
Once you understand the reason for doubting him it’s pretty easy to move past it. Cheers!
I stand corrected. I just watched his scouting tape, not highlights, scouting tape and this guy is incredible. I was shocked how good he is between tackles, his quickness in tight spaces, catching abilities and pass blocking. He’s very good at making the first and second guy miss. Very patient and excellent vision. But you’ve already mentioned all of this lol.
I can’t wait to see where he lands and I’m excited to have the 1.05 pick this year.
Maybe Kyle Shanahan takes him towards the top of the 2nd rd (if he’s still available) to build a similar platoon as the one he had in Atlanta and uses Hyde/McCaffrey together? Would be an interesting landing spot.
I’d really like to see the Pats snare him at 32, they’d know best how to maximize the return on investment. I know there’d be some redundancy for their spread/3rd down role with White and Lewis already in the fold. But McCaffrey would breathe some much needed life into their return game. And future-proof them at a critical position in their offense, the passing-down running back. From Faulk to Vereen, and now White & Lewis, it’s clear that the Pats offense must have a tailback or two who can catch out of the backfield, line up in the slot, or even out wide. McCaffrey can do all of that in spades, and take one to the house on a kickoff or punt return, which used to happen more often when Faulk and Troy Brown were playing in NE.
I’m not expecting the Pats to go this way at the end of the 1st, just hoping for it. Maybe the odds would increase for this scenario if they work a deal with CLE for Garoppolo and have an extra 1st rounder to work with. We’ll see.
Nice work Curtis, thanks for the detailed write-up.
Thanks for doing the leg work of embedding some film in the article to demonstrate your point. Really appreciated that.
Despite the bit of a resurgence of 1st rnd RB’s, I still see him dropping to the 2nd rnd. In my latest mock draft that I’ve been creating for myself, I ultimately have him going to the Chargers as a younger more dynamic replacement to Woodhead.
At 6″0 and 200lbs that’s a way lower bmi than freeman who is 5″8. He’d best run under 4.5 and have a 3cone at 6’90 ish otherwise he won’t show up as special athlete, regardless of ethnicity.
How about getting this guy in Green Bay? Could be a McCaffrey/Montgomery tandem if Lacy moves on. Not sure I see Ted Thompson taking an RB in the 1st though.
At 1.05 would you rather have McCaffrey or Mixon? Assuming both RBs land in reasonable situations.
