Dynasty Diaries: On the Shortness of (Dynasty) Life
Welcome to dynasty diaries. In this series, I will give you an inside look at all of my teams, their history and my plans for the future. I’d like to provide some insight into struggles I’ve faced, and reveal weekly thoughts and feelings on anything and everything football. Join me as I succeed or crash and burn. For more information on the leagues, check out the introduction. If there is anything more you’d like to see or any questions you have, please let me know in the comments section.
Life is full of ups and downs, is it not? One moment, you can find yourself exactly where you want to be – on top of the world, care free. But it only takes a couple of bumps in the road to leave a person feeling the opposite. Our lives can change drastically in a matter of hours.
I’m a worrier. Whether it’s innate or due to my upbringing, the natural tendency is to think too far ahead, meaning there are times when I “lose the day in expectation of the night, and the night in fear of the dawn” rather than simply enjoying the now. To get back on track, I try to accept the past, remind myself I don’t have control of the future, and just focus on today.
Why am I starting this piece in this fashion? Perhaps it was triggered by Eagles offensive lineman Brandon Brooks revealing this week he has anxiety issues, and I feel glad he was able to be open about it. Perhaps it’s because sometimes when things are difficult it’s better to talk about it than hide away. Or perhaps it’s simply because I’ve been knocked out of my dynasty leagues, the Eagles are a shambles and my season has come to an end; leaving me nothing to cheer for. Sometimes, it’s really hard not to worry – but revelling in the highlights of the football season, being able to just enjoy football without fantasy implications, getting excited for 2017, and being grateful for our outstanding fantasy community all help to shine some light in dark times.
Perhaps more importantly for most of you, the question is: why am I talking about anxiety and loss in a dynasty fantasy football article? Because life is short, and dynasty life is even shorter. Think about all the players who have had their ‘fifteen minutes’ in recent years – Carson Wentz, Marvin Jones, Christine Michael, Cordarrelle Patterson, Robert Griffin and so many more. The number of players who we’ve valued as top talents at their position must be astronomical, and the amount who have disappeared in an instant is just as large. You can drive yourself insane with trade regret, missing out on players and worrying too much about what’s coming next, but why not just appreciate the now, learn from the past and prepare for an unpredictable future?
This piece is designed to both celebrate and mourn the shortness of dynasty success, both for players and owners. I’m going to take a look at some players who may have peaked and could be approaching the end.
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The Leagues
International Dynasty League (8-6/Eliminated)
Departing thoughts:
Coming in fifth with a loss in the final week is tough, but we have to look at the process of the team-building to evaluate why the team just wasn’t good enough. Despite top four scores in seven of the last eight weeks of the season, I didn’t finish as the top scorer all year. Injuries to Dez Bryant and Sammy Watkins, along with an underwhelming Allen Robinson year derailed a good receiving group, but I made no moves to remedy that.
If you have a team in contention, make moves to get over the top. I have my regrets here in not being more aggressive earlier in the year. You can’t take a strong quarterback pairing for granted in a 2QB league, and I should do everything in my power to surround them with the best talent.
Dynasty life is short:
All of these players, for me, have the potential to completely fall off the map over the summer. While Michael might hold value forever simply because we seem to want to talk about him, I can’t imagine he has a value uptick as significant as he had earlier this year. Coates could be ousted by the return of Martavis Bryant, as he has not taken advantage of a clearer path to more snaps.
McKinnon and Mathews are two who simply haven’t produced to their supposed ‘talent’ levels. I was as excited as anyone about the explosive Vikings back, but he’s been disappointing fantasy owners from day one. Mathews gets chance after chance, but I’m sure Philadelphia will make some changes in the backfield this off-season. At this point, it might just be a matter of getting out while you can.
Twitter Invitational (7-6/Eliminated)
Departing thoughts:
Unfortunately, being in a division with a 10-3, 9-4 and another 7-6 team left me at the bottom despite a winning record. In a 16-teamer, I do believe you only need one standout player at each position to succeed, but I was undone again by my receiving core. After making a move for Sammy Watkins in the summer, I again thought depth would be able to provide sufficient cover. Disappointing seasons from Jarvis Landry, DeSean Jackson and Greg Olsen (who is still somehow the TE2 on the year) left me on the outside looking in.
Also, does anyone need three good starting quarterbacks (including two high quality ones in Andrew Luck and Marcus Mariota)? No way. At least one should have been moved for more firepower elsewhere.
Dynasty life is short:
How do you feel about Olsen? Like good wine, tight ends tend to mature with age, but at what point can you tell time is up? He’s 31 now, and we do have to take into account a historically awful season for Cam Newton, but for how long will he sustain his TE1 production? In a team like this where I do feel like I can compete, he’s still great to own, but in some places it will be worth gaining some assets for him before it’s completely too late.
Kitchen Sink 3 (16-6/Lost Conference Championship Game)
Departing thoughts:
Top seed and top scorer doesn’t mean anything when the playoffs come around. I had a hot start to the year, but stumbled towards the end of the year. I don’t have too many regrets in this league, and simply came up against a formidable opponent at the same time Drew Brees hit his worst form of the year, Melvin Gordon got hurt, Julio Jones missed out and Jordan Reed was limping. Sometimes, you’re just all out of luck.
Dynasty life is short:
Despite the success, I’m expecting a big roster turnaround over the summer. Johnson might be a useful PPR back eventually, but I can’t picture a very high ceiling any more. West had a few games where he was ‘the man’ in Baltimore, but Kenneth Dixon has looked fantastic. It might not take long before the rookie completely takes over and West is expendable. Smallwood had a chance to make an impression on the Eagles, but didn’t take it. As I mentioned earlier, the team will most likely look to bring in a new lead back in the off-season.
As for Ty Montgomery, he had a typical dynasty fifteen minutes that we see every year. A perfect situation plus one great game put him at the forefront of everyone’s minds, and that was the right time to cash out. I chose to keep him in my lineups, and missed out. He’s not going to be Green Bay’s running back, and they have far better receivers. Steve Smith is an ageless wonder, but he certainly doesn’t hold dynasty ‘value’. But he should stay on rosters until he retires.
Last year, I placed a lot of stock into acquiring devy assets, and I hope to do the same again next year. Moving average-to-good NFL players for the potential of stardom is doubly beneficial in a league like this, where devy players don’t take up contract years.
Groundhog’s Dynasty (6-7/Eliminated)
Departing thoughts:
I knew all year I was punching above my weight with my W-L record, but tried to make it to the big dance anyway. Ultimately I didn’t have enough star power (and AJ Green’s injury came at a bad time), but we’re on to next year with two picks in the first round of our rookie draft.
Dynasty life is short:
- Tim Hightower
- Duke Johnson
- Jerick McKinnon
- Christine Michael
- Wendell Smallwood
- James White
- Mohamed Sanu
- Gary Barnidge
- Greg Olsen
- Jack Doyle
I built this team with a whole bunch of waiver moves, and a lot of them simply patched up a short-term problem but didn’t fully fix it. Perhaps it’s better, when you know you are rebuilding, to move any non-elite player when they get hot. I suppose in this case, since I still thought I was in the running, I got lost in the dream of a Championship. Now, I’ll look to move a bunch of players, draft well and work hard on the waiver wire.
What can you do with depreciating assets? Can you move them for potential value? Will they have potential value based on their situation over the summer? Work out the best time to strike, and make some moves. Unfortunately, players like Hightower, Michael, White, Sanu, Barnidge and Doyle may have had their best days, but that means if for any reason they get some off-season hype or situations change, I will look to make moves.
New League: Kitchen Cinco (2017 Startup)
Opening thoughts:
Due to overwhelming demand, Ryan McDowell has introduced a fifth Kitchen Sink league. These have an amazing set of rules, and this particular version will pit 48 owners against each other in four conferences of 12. Even the deciding of the division members will come down to an auction draft, as four division captains bid on the owners they want to play against.
There will be a ton of preparation involved, and I’ll be sharing it all right here in the diaries.
Dynasty Life is Short: Around the League
While I do tend to focus on my own teams here, it’s important to note a few players from around the league who may have experienced or may be experiencing a dynasty peak. It’s not to say they won’t have another one, but now and this off-season might be a time to think about moving them.
I know at quarterback, if I can move Matt Ryan for an ‘elite’ quarterback price, now is the time to do it. He’s a very good player, but overvalued quarterbacks can be extremely helpful for recouping value. As impressive as Kirk Cousins and Derek Carr have been and will continue to be, they also could be moved for a decent sum.
DeMarco Murray has had an outstanding season, but Derrick Henry is hot on his heals. If you don’t move him this summer, it might not be long before it’s too late. Another Murray, Latavius, has boomed in fantasy points by collecting touchdowns and will be a free agent in 2017. Whether he re-signs to a big contract or moves elsewhere, I’m sure the production won’t add up to the excitement.
At receiver, I’m more of the belief that you can grab your ‘buy lows’ in the off-season when we get excited about the fresh young talent, and the best time to move those overvalued youngsters is as we approach the season (think Kevin White, Laquon Treadwell, Tyler Lockett, and more). Every year, we choose as a community who to get excited about, so it’s important to track who falls because of it.
Finally, at tight end there’s a whole group of decent talents who tend to switch around based on most recent play. Kyle Rudolph and Cameron Brate come to mind as two who have out-performed expectations but won’t reach a very high ceiling. It might not be long before they go the way of Jordan Cameron, Gary Barnidge or Julius Thomas.
So as we conclude, I have two questions for you as your regular seasons come to an end:
- What lessons have you learned from your dynasty seasons this year? Do you have any regrets?
- Who are the players in your teams who might fall off a cliff this summer? What do you plan to do with them?
Coming soon: preparation for rookie and devy auction drafts. If there are any other topics or specifics you’d like me to cover, please let me know.
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As well as editing for DLF, James writes for Sky Sports and can be found on Twitter at @JS_Football
- 2022 Rookie Class: An Early Look at Kenny Pickett, QB Pittsburgh - January 31, 2022
- Dynasty Fantasy Football Rookie Update: Quez Watkins, WR PHI - July 15, 2020
- Dynasty Fantasy Football Rookie Update: John Hightower, WR PHI - July 7, 2020
