What Now?! Competing, Rebuilding, or Mediocre?

Eric Burtzlaff Posted On November 27, 2016

It’s already nearly December and we are going into week 12. I’ll say that again. We are going into week 12 this Thanksiving. Pretty much all the fantasy league playoffs are starting in the next three weeks. Also, you should probably start your holiday shopping. No seriously, start looking for stuff for your mom/dad/wife/kids/dog/alpaca. This is going to be the year you are ahead of your game on Christmas shopping. Much like being prepared for giving thoughtful gifts, time and effort are required for playing the last few weeks of your dynasty season correctly. Unlike redraft leagues, this is the time of the year that every owner in your leagues should be trying to accomplish an objective to better their teams.

So now that your alpaca has that scarf in the mail, let’s talk about the different places your dynasty team could be sitting right now.

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Competing: You’re a lock to make the fantasy playoffs and have your eyes on your league’s championship trophy (and cash). Your team has only suffered one or two losses and you have dodged all the nasty injuries this year.
Rebuilding: Your team never stood a chance this year or maybe you ran into the injury buzzsaw. Regardless of how you got here, you are totally out of the playoff picture and now it’s time to pick up the pieces and figure out how to move forward.
Mediocre: Oh boy, this is the tough one. You are sitting at number 5-8 in your league standings with a middling team (or an unlucky one). What do you do from here? Do you go for it? Do you exploit the likely winners of the league and go for it next year?

Before we go any further, I’d like to highlight one thing. Many dynasty leagues have had their trade deadlines pass and you need to be aware of the moves you can or can’t make at this point. If your deadline has passed, you won’t have a whole lot of options unless your waiver wire is plentiful (which is doubtful). Check your league and confirm that you still have the option to do what you want. Worst case, bookmark this article and save it for next year around this time (about two weeks earlier!).

Let’s jump into how to proceed in each of the scenarios I’ve outlined above:

Competing –

Build depth if you lack it: One thing that can kill a team destine for the trophy is getting arrogant on the way into the championship game. Just ask a Gio Bernard owner with minimal running back depth whose deadline has passed if you want to see how it feels. When I have a team that is favored to win a league, I don’t value my draft picks nearly as much as I value insurance for that championship trophy. Shop around for a Steve Smith, Antonio Gates or Tim Hightower. These are depth pieces that you can plug in if you have an emergency. Disclaimer: Do not go pay insanely overpriced amounts for old players. I’ve seen that one happen WAY too many times. Giving your future first for Darren McFadden in 2015 and still missing the championship game is a great way to kick yourself for an entire off-season. Target owners who are trying to unload the players and make an even deal that helps both of your teams (or overpay ever so slightly).
Be careful not to help another competing team: You want to win, which means the last thing that you’d like to do is help another competing team by letting a piece fall into their clutches that will propel them by you to glory. Keep your finger on the pulse of your trade market and try to make moves before other guys can. Additionally, do not be the one to help them! This is not the time to get cute and dump some of your depth for future draft picks to a guy who can win it.
Size up your competition – In that same vein, know your opponent’s needs and weaknesses. Keep an eye on injuries and ways you can block them from picking up a replacement player.
Familiarize yourself with the playoff format and payouts – This one is obvious. Are your playoffs 4-team? 6-team? 7-team + your alpaca gets a bye? That’s important to know. It helps you gauge your chances and tells you how hard to push. Also, will you receive a bye if you get first or second place in the regular season? Is there bonus money for finishing first regular season? Or maybe for most points? Know each of these answers. The fewer games you play in the playoffs, the better your chances are to win as a favorite and inversely, the more games you play, the less chance you have of the championship as a favorite.
Start gearing up for winning – If there’s team defenses in your league, start analyzing matchups. Look at your starting roster and matchups for the entirety of the playoffs. If your playoffs start next week, remember CLE and TEN are on bye in week 13. Having optimal matchups is key to winning. Think ahead a couple weeks. This is also a terrific re-draft tip that someone told me many years ago.

Rebuilding –

Sell depreciating assets with value to contenders – This one is probably the most obvious tip for a rebuilding team. Contenders pay top dollar to fill needs on their team and disregard age. This is a great time to get much younger and better going into the off-season. Inversely to selling depreciating assets, you should be trying to buy IR players and rookies who haven’t broken out yet. These are the types of gambles you can afford to take at a discount from a contending team who has no need for them on the way to glory. Make sure you look at the team’s needs before you make any offers. This is a tip every
Be VERY active making trade offers – Let everyone in the league know you are wheeling and dealing to unload your older guys. Let everyone know you are packing it in and value draft picks and flyers for next year. You’ll find when you open a line of communication to each owner individually (don’t send a blanket e-mail saying you are rebuilding) that offers start to populate and things get done. Slip into your other owner’s DMs and get rid of those old guys. If after shopping no one wants your Steve Smith or Antonio Gates, feel free to take a bath on them. If a player is out of the league next year, I assure you that a third round pick is better than nothing.
Create a realistic plan for getting your team back on track – Many rebuilding teams seem to just buy draft picks and youth but keep redoing that same strategy at the end of each year. Having a fire sale every year for draft picks is a great way to always be rebuilding. You should be strategically building pieces. How far are you from competing if 50% of your draft picks hit? 1-year? 2-years? 3-years? If you answer that, you can build a smart strategy around that. Once you formulate your re-build strategy, write it down and stick to that. Accountability and honesty is key to a successful re-build.
Start doing your 2017 draft research now – No time like the present to outwork your leaguemates. Go out and start watching tape on the 2017 draft prospects. Start gauging how you think the 2017 NFL rookie drafts will play out and buy picks with a plan. I realize this is a little difficult to do accurately, but if you have three more months of film watching and analysis than your other owners, you’ll be able to beat them in the draft before the pre-draft/draft narratives start.

Mediocre –

League Setting are everything – As mentioned above, know your payouts and playoff structure. If there are six teams making the playoffs, it is far more likely that you can go on a run and win this thing. Additionally, if only the championship game is paying out, getting third place doesn’t seem quite as great. Also, is there a toilet bowl in your league? These are becoming far more common. All leagues I commish have a 6-team playoff for teams 7-12 which provides a prize of a compensatory first round draft pick at the end of the first round. If you are in seventh place, maybe that alone provides enough incentive to push the limit and go for it. Even if you miss it, you could get a first in the toilet bowl. On a side note, I highly recommend doing a toilet bowl in your leagues. It keeps everyone engaged. Also, shout out to Ryan McDowell for introducing me to that format!
Honest team assessment – I highly recommend asking people through twitter or people you trust to evaluate your chances of making a run and winning. I know MANY people are delusional and sell their picks to make a failed run only to bust out in the first game of the playoffs. Try your best to avoid selling future pieces to end up in that situation if you can. Don’t be delusional guy/girl.
Look at your player’s playoff schedule – Do many of the core players on your team have cushy matchups each week in the playoffs? If so, maybe you stand a better chance than you do most weeks! This is certainly something to consider but placing too much faith in Quincy Enunwa’s ability to beat the Cleveland secondary might be misplaced. You almost need the perfect storm for this to matter but it’s worth mentioning.
Trading for assets if you are making a run or packing it in if you are not – This is very important and the most difficult thing to put into writing due to the number of unique situations that exist out there. If your team is healthy and has been unlucky in the record, it’s likely correct to mail off your second round pick and go for it with a complementary piece. If your team is third to last in scoring and has been insanely lucky to make it to fifth place in week 12, mail it in. Selling your assets before the trade deadline can be hard with the playoffs in reach but it is many times correct to do. Again, your goal is to build a championship team, not get fifth place every year.

There’s a ton of other considerations which should be considered but these are the major points that I consider in each spot listed in the article. If you have league specific questions, I implore you to reach out to myself (@dynastytrades) or any other DLF writer on twitter seeking additional tips for making the correct decision in your league. Good luck in the playoffs and get your holiday shopping started already!

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