Rookie Profile: Patrick Mahomes, QB Texas Tech

I hadn’t watched a Patrick Mahomes snap or Texas Tech game this year prior to doing my research for this article. Oh man, I missed out on some fun!

I’ve heard many different takes on Mahomes, but no one mentioned how fun watching his tape is. He throws the ball deep recklessly without seeming to even flinch his body. It’s not only fun to watch, but insanely impressive.

He’s the type of player who immediately makes you understand why NFL teams are getting hyped about him. Even at his worst, rooting for the kid is going to be blast. With the hype building around Mahomes being drafted early as a starter, lets dive into him as a prospect.

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The Stats

Mahomes was a three star recruit coming out of Whitehouse High School in Texas. He signed with Texas Tech and won the starting job in 2015 (sophomore year). In 2015 and 2016, Mahomes put together 4,653 yard, 36 TD and 5052 yards, 41 TD seasons, respectively. His team had very mediocre results, but that’s hardly his fault and it’s impossible to ignore that production.

Statistics from sports-reference.com.

He has now declared for the NFL prior to his senior year and is projected to be a mid-late first round NFL draft pick. Additionally, there is speculation that Houston’s Bill O’ Brien wants to draft Mahomes in the first round. The blurbs even went as far as to say he ‘loves’ Mahomes.

There is a lot to love. He is an insanely athletic, gun-slinging type quarterback. He makes plays that few other quarterbacks could make. He escapes situations that few quarterbacks could escape. When I watch the tape, it reminds me of a Ben Roethlisberger meets Tyrod Taylor.

Sadly, there’s several negatives that go along with this description. Mahomes has confidence (perhaps too much) and make throws he shouldn’t. Additionally, he makes his throws so effortlessly he doesn’t bother stepping forward many times which hurts his accuracy. That being said, the number of 60+ yard touchdowns I watched make inaccuracy a gamble perhaps worth taking.

The Film

When you watch Mahomes on film, it’s electric. Watching his last college game against Baylor, you see what Mahomes can do. He threw for 586 yard, six touchdowns and no picks while annihilating the secondary. Most fun of all, he made it look easy.

This is a game that shows the immense ‘upside’ of Mahomes. He makes effortless 80 yard bombs, throws the ball insanely well under pressure and escapes seemingly inescapable situations. This is the upside that an NFL office will take a shot on next week.

I watched the tape waiting for Mahomes to give a bad performance and it just didn’t happen. He had quiet afternoons like the game against Arkansas in 2015 but even then, he still threw for 86% completion percentage despite his two interceptions. It’s obvious some of his decisions and throws will be punished in the NFL, but no one in his college games seemed to be able to make him pay for his high-risk throws.

He also operated solely out of the shotgun formation through college, so he will also need to learn to play under center in the NFL.

All told, this was some of the most fun tape I’ve had the privilege of watching this off-season.

The Metrics

Mahomes metrics check all the boxes for a quarterback. Via Player Profiler, his ball speed and agility test in the 90th percentile (or above) while his 40 yard dash is in the 60th percentile. This quantifies what we saw on tape with his arm and his ‘escape artist’ tactics in the pocket.

Furthermore, Mahomes broke out at age 19 and has a college QBR in the 87th percentile. He also compares to Dak Prescott which perhaps is a better description of him over my ‘Big Ben/Tyrod’ comp earlier in this article.

His Mock Draftable player page also shows his metrics.

There is nothing to dislike in Mahomes from the metrics side. He checks every box for me, and I assume he will check all the boxes for any NFL team.

The Conclusion

Mahomes is a dynamic player. After doing my research for this article, I hope he pans out in the NFL. He will light up the highlight reels for the next decade if he can work out his kinks and fix his fundamentals.

Mahomes is currently being draft at 44th overall in the DLF Rookie ADP. This assumes a 1QB format, but is too low for me. Depending on where he’s draft this week, I fully expect his value to jump to the third round of startups. I really like Mahomes as a prospect to grab in the second round of your 2QB formats as well.

If the Texans take Mahomes on day one, the narrative will change a bit. He will suddenly be in the top quarterback discussion as he’s arguably going into the best quarterback situation currently available. Time will tell the answer to that question. I could also see Mahomes going off the board at the QB2 to the Browns or Cardinals in the 12-13 pick range. Mahomes’ value won’t hold in the fourth round if he goes that high come this weekend.

I am rooting for Mahomes to have success in the NFL, mostly because he’ll be insanely fun to watch if he pans out.

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