Week Nine Waiver Wire: A Closer Look at Two Potential Adds

Brian Malone Posted On November 2, 2016

Ryan McDowell says that his biggest advantage in dynasty is being more attentive than his league mates, especially on the waiver wire. Drafting is exciting. Trading is fun. Lineups decisions will make you pull your hair out. But waivers are a bit tedious, which is why you can win them. If you’re good at the thing no one else likes, you give yourself a big advantage.

This article is one step toward winning the waiver wire. Each week, I’ll talk about two players to add — one for shallower leagues (225-250 offensive players rostered) and one for deeper leagues (275-325 offensive players rostered). In some weeks, both players I discuss will be rostered in your leagues. I get that, and I welcome feedback about whether I should be digging deeper or shallower.

Last week was about taking advantage of the bye weeks to grab potential league winners. This week is about dealing with the reality of bye weeks by chasing immediate production.

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Shallower Leagues — J.J. Nelson (a.k.a. “Tha Jizzle Man”)

This isn’t fun. Back in week four, I wrote about Jaron Brown. In the comments, someone asked about J.J. Nelson. My response: “I’m not on #TeamBigWR, but I can’t get excited about a WR who’s basically my size.” Now here we are in week eight, and well, yeah.

Nelson may be my size, but he’s about eight yards down the field before I get out of the starting blocks. Per MockDraftable, he has elite long speed and pretty good explosion too. But that’s what you’d expect from an NFL player who weighs 156 pounds.

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You’d also expect him to be an explosive playmaker in college, which he was. Nelson averaged 19.6 yards per reception in four years at Alabama-Birmingham. Not quite Sammie Coates, but that’s a big number. But, like Coates, Nelson’s total production wasn’t particularly impressive. Sure, Nelson led the Blazers in receiving his junior and senior seasons, but the Blazers aren’t even fielding a football team this season. And he accounted for only 25 percent of his team’s receiving yards as a senior, though he accounted for 33 percent of the team’s yards as a junior.

As a rookie in 2015, Nelson was a situational deep threat. He captured just 27 targets in 11 games, but he averaged 27.2 yards per reception. 2016 was more of the same through week seven. Nelson had just 13 targets but 19.3 yards per reception.

But in week eight, with Michael Floyd battling a hamstring, Jaron Brown on injured reserve, and John Brown recently diagnosed with a sickle cell trait, Nelson lead the Cardinals with 12 targets and averaged only 9.9 yards per reception. Oh, and he scored two touchdowns on passes from inside the five yard line.

We can’t chase those touchdowns, but Nelson appears to be the WR3 at worst in Arizona. If he can average even six targets per game, he’ll be a worthwhile flex play down the stretch.

Deeper Leagues — Antone Smith

Antone Smith’s return to fantasy relevance reminded me of an exchange I had in a dynasty forum (not DLF) back in October 2014. Smith, then 29 years old, had gained 119 rushing yards, 147 receiving yards, and scored four touchdowns in his last four games. And he did it on just 11 rush attempts and seven targets. A forum user Smith owner was offered Mark Ingram, Theo Riddick, and a 2015 rookie second for Smith. I begged the poster to accept the deal. He declined, citing Smith’s potential value bump once he finally got more touches. Those touches never came, and by late November you couldn’t get a fourth-round pick for Smith. Efficiency fades. Volume matters.

With that in mind, let’s talk Smith. He, like Nelson, is very small and very fast. Well, at least he was back in 2008 at his pro day (courtesy of RotoViz):

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That four-game stretch in 2014 is the highlight of Smith’s fantasy career to date. He gained 266 scrimmage yards and scored four touchdowns in those games. He’s gained 335 scrimmage yards and scored three touchdowns in his 62 other appearances. True, he has averaged 9.1 yards per rush attempt and 11.3 yards per target, but remember, volume matters.

At age 31, Smith may finally be in line to get that volume. He signed with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers before week seven, and he may be atop the depth chart for a week or two. Charles Sims is on injured reserve; Doug Martin’s hamstring injury has kept him out since week two; and Jacquizz Rodgers is in a walking boot. That leaves Smith, Peyton Barber, and the “new again” Mike James to compete for touches.

Before week eight, Barber was the presumptive next man up, but he was on the field for just three snaps against the Raiders. When Rodgers went down, Smith took over the lead role, logging 22 snaps, four rush attempts, and two targets. I expect more of a 50/50 split going forward, but Smith is clearly the home run threat and passing game back. That makes him a low-end RB2 or flex play until Martin returns. And who knows, maybe he’ll average ten yards per attempt and you’ll be able to trade him for a song.

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