The DLF Mailbag

Jaron Foster Posted On November 9, 2016

Welcome to the latest edition of the weekly mailbag.

Send your questions using the DLF Mailbag Form and we may answer them in future articles. Remember the guidelines to have the best chance at seeing your question get posted:

1) Dynasty questions only, no start/sit questions

2) Help us help you by providing sufficient information about your league (e.g. line-up requirements, PPR or non-PPR, etc.), and include your first name and where you’re from.

3) Your chance of getting your question answered is inversely proportional to the length of the question.

Let’s get to it!

1. In my dynasty start up I went all in on zero running back strategy and ended up (after a little wheeling and dealing) with a roster I was pretty happy with (Mariota, Bridgewater, Bradford, Abdullah, Devontae Booker, DeAndre Washington, Jordan Howard, Chris Thompson, OBJ, Watkins, Jeffrey, Cobb, Lockett, Diggs, Fuller, Boyd, Keenan Allen, Crowder, Kelce, Bennett, Walford). But what is step two?

a. With injuries and some underperforming stars leading to a poor start, punt the first year and try to accumulate picks for 2017 and long term stability, or

b. Try to trade some players for a stud running back and shoot for glory this year, or

c. Stay the course and trust that the numbers will come this year and try to sneak into the playoffs?

Chris in Chicago

(12 teams, standard, 1QB, 2RB, 3WR, 1TE, FLEX)

Chris, this is an excellent question that does not merit a one-size-fits-all answer. We are at a point in the season where most teams recognize whether they are playoff-bound or rebuilding for next year, but there is still a gray area where the owner needs to determine if their roster can make a legitimate push with its middle-of-the-road record. Although the general consensus is to either go all-in or fold and play for next year, if I am in a position to make the playoffs I am going be aggressive to go for it. The tricky part, of course, is determining whether my lineup and depth appear strong enough to contend with the top teams in the league.

Taking a look at your team’s total points and points against will help to identify whether the team has been lucky or unlucky, with the chance that the law of averages will return your team’s record to the mean. Additionally, for leagues using MyFantasyLeague, go to Reports > Standings > Power Rank to see your power rankings and All-Play record (your team’s record had you played every team in every week). While this record is not a popular alternative to weekly standings, it eliminates the luck of facing particularly strong or weak teams.

Specific to your team, I would go out on a limb and say the All-Play record is not favorable considering the injuries and inconsistency you mention. This would tell me that I should take my strong core of young players and build around them in the offseason. You have excellent depth at wide receiver that could be used to acquire a top-tier quarterback and/or running back. You are in a position to be competitive for years to come, but I don’t expect it to start in 2016.

2. I mortgaged my future in the offseason, trading away 1 2016 first and 2 2017 firsts for AJ. I did that hoping that my assemblage of young WRs would break out this year. Alas that hasn’t been the case and now I wonder whether to sell high on Bell, Miller, and AJ, and reload for next year. I have also thought about keeping that core and trading away my young guys for players that could help me win this year. I just need some advice here: sell high, sell low, or hold tight. Some advice on values would help too.

Raul in Ottawa
PPR 1.25 for RB, .75 for WR, 1.50 for TE

(12 teams, PPR, no IDP, 1QB, 2RB, 2WR, 1TE, 2FLEX, 1K, 1DEF – Best Ball)

Raul, thanks for providing a link to your roster in addition to your question. I really like your core of players including Matt Ryan, Jameis Winston, Le’Veon Bell, AJ Green, DeVante Parker and Golden Tate. Additionally, in a best ball format, I like the pickups of players including Kapri Bibbs, Travis Benjamin, Kenny Stills and Vance McDonald.

That said, in a league that so highly values tight ends (and slightly devalues wide receivers, including with the starting lineup requirements) I’m not sure you’re a strong contender at 4-5. If I were in this situation, I’d look to see what I can get for players I expect to lose value after this season or likely will not be more valuable at any point going forward. In my mind, this list includes Ryan, Bibbs, Rob Kelley, Lamar Miller (I’m not a fan), Jalen Richard, DeAngelo Williams, Kenny Britt, Jeremy Kerley (if he still has any value with Colin Kaepernick) and Vernon Davis (when Jordan Reed gets hurt again).

Specifically to your question, I don’t make a habit of selling low. This depends on your definition of selling low and for which players, but unless there is an appreciably better player on waivers and you would drop the player anyway. I would lean toward holding tight unless you can get good “sell high” value on specific players.

3. Should I trade Ty Montgomery for Derrick Henry? I have DeMarco Murray as my starting RB.

Anthony in Brooklyn

12 teams, PPR, No IDP, 1QB, 2RB, 2WR, 1TE, 1FLEX

Anthony, although I normally answer trade questions with “it depends” and request more information (such as your full roster), I see very few scenarios in which I would not trade Montgomery for Henry right now. Unless the injury Henry suffered prior to the Titans’ week nine game in San Diego proves to be an issue that keeps him out several weeks (and you are a contender in desperate need of a flex player), I would comfortably make this deal. Add in that Montgomery is not RB-eligible in MyFantasyLeague at this time, and your starting lineup includes 2-3 each of RBs and WRs, and I much prefer Henry.

With this in mind, looking at the bigger picture for these types of questions I would recommend looking at a combination of recent DLF ADP and DLF Rankings. For dynasty rankings of players within the same position, you can drill into that specific position, or take a look at the Top 100 or ADP for flex values.

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Jaron Foster

Contributor at Dynasty League Football

A data analyst by profession, Jaron has been writing for DLF since 2012. Native New Englanders, Jaron and his wife are introducing their son (2010) and daughter (2014) to the Patriots. You can regularly find him on Twitter and in the DLF Forum at odd hours.