Summer Sleeper: Atlanta Falcons

Bruce Matson Posted On August 16, 2016

We continue our annual 32-part Summer Sleeper series where DLF scribes identify a lightly-touted player on each NFL roster who may be worthy of your consideration. Our subjects all have varying levels of “sleeperness,” but each merits a bit of in-depth discussion here in the Premium Content section.

To help everybody along, we are going to be categorizing our sleepers under one of three headings:

Super Deep Sleepers – Players who aren’t roster-worthy in 12-team leagues, but are still worth keeping an eye on.
Deep Sleepers – An end of the roster player who is more often than not on the waiver wire in 12-team leagues.
Sleeper – A likely rostered player who makes for a good trade target. Their startup ADP puts them out of the top-175 or so.

Because we aren’t going give you the likes of mainstream sleepers like Tyler Lockett or Carlos Hyde, most of these players will undoubtedly fizzle. All we are asking is for you to keep an open mind and perhaps be willing to make room for one of these players on your bench. You never know when the next Willie Snead is going to spring up. Feel free to add your own thoughts about our choice for the designated sleeper, or nominate one of your own in the comments below.

Julio Jones proved again that he is the heart beat of Atlanta’s offense last season by leading the league with 136 receptions for 1871 yards while averaging 23.54 (PPR) fantasy points per game. His 204 targets last season helped him own a 32.85 percent market share of the team’s pass attempts. Jones is one of the best receivers in the league and should remain an integral part of the offense for years to come.

The run-game for Atlanta is starting to emerge as one of the best in the league due to the one-two punch of Devonta Freeman and Tevin Coleman. The two running backs combined rushed for 1,453 yards and 12 touchdowns while averaging 4.14 yards per carry, helping the offense finish seventh in the league with 374.4 total yards per game. The signing of Alex Mack, three time pro bowl center who anchored the Cleveland Browns offensive line during the last seven years, should help bolster Atlanta’s run blocking, allowing the creases between the tackles to open up more for Freeman and Coleman to run through.

Atlanta’s offense finished last season ranked eighth in the league with 621 pass attempts, proving that it’s possible that multiple receivers could become fantasy relevant due to the sheer passing volume. Quarterback Matt Ryan completed 66.3 percent of his passes last season, ranking him sixth in the league in completion percentage. Quality of targets is something to be aware of when evaluating a team’s passing game, Ryan’s accuracy isn’t the greatest but it’s good enough to help feed multiple receivers for viable fantasy production.

Justin Hardy, WR

Category: Deep Sleeper

Hardy’s rookie season didn’t go as planned as he only played in nine games, allowing him to just catch 21 receptions for 194 yards. Both Roddy White and Leonard Hankerson started in front of Hardy, making it difficult for him to see the field. It’s not abnormal for a wide receiver to get a limited amount of snaps during their rookie season. His lack of production during his rookie season shouldn’t be the reason for dynasty owners to avoid him, because it’s very common for players to start off slow during the inaugural rookie year.

Hardy was highly productive during his collegiate career at East Carolina, catching 121 receptions for 1,494 yards and 10 touchdowns. He graduated from ECU with the most receptions (387) and the third most receiving yards (4,541) in NCAA history, while finishing both his junior and senior seasons with over 100 receptions. The Atlanta Falcons selected him in the fourth round (107 overall) during the 2015 draft, making him the sixteenth wide receiver off the board.

He fits the stereotype of a slot receiver with his 5’10’’ and 192-pound frame and his 6.63 3-cone time provides the inference that he has the short-area quickness to beat linebackers and nickel corners in the slot. Very few receivers who weigh less than 200-pounds with a 40-yard dash in the mid 4.4’s or higher can make a living playing on the outside as a split end or flanker, they typically lack the speed and size to create separation against the league’s top cornerbacks. Not saying he can’t ever play split end or flanker, but the players that fit his arc-type and are successful at playing on the outside like Antonio Brown are few and far between.

Mohamed Sanu and Aldrick Robinson are currently competing against each other during training camp to play on the opposite side of Julio Jones, neither player has been outstanding during their NFL career. Sanu’s best season was in 2014 when he caught 56 receptions for 790 yards and five touchdowns. Robinson hasn’t had a season with over 400 yards receiving during his NFL career. Sanu is projected to win the starting job, but an injury or inefficient play during preseason could allow Hardy to get an extended look, providing him an opportunity to showcase his talents with the starting offense.

This time last year, Hardy was considered a third-fourth round pick in rookie drafts and he had a 153.83 ADP in startup drafts. His current 214.67 APD, a 61 spot drop from a year ago, suggests that he’s currently valued as a late seventeenth round pick in startup drafts. It’s not going to take much to buy Hardy’s services via trade because he’s currently ultra-cheap and he’s more than likely stashed away at the end of another dynasty owner’s bench. There’s a chance that he could be sitting on the waiver wire in some leagues. He hasn’t done anything to prove that he can’t play at the NFL level and his drop in value is a reflection of the market’s recency bias towards his unproductive rookie season. There’s enough passing volume in Atlanta’s offense to make him fantasy relevant and since he’s currently dirt cheap his value could easily double or triple if he ever gets the opportunity to start.

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Bruce Matson

Contributor at Dynasty League Football

I'm a financial counselor for a hospital in South Central Ohio. I graduated from Muskingum University with a bachelor's in business while minoring in Economics and Accounting. I won my first fantasy football title with Jake Plummer as my quarterback.