I’m a list guy. I make “to do” lists, follow “honey do” lists, and will take time to read a top ten list of almost anything. This series of articles will bring you a top five ranking about a myriad of topics in the world of dynasty football.
With our brand new dynasty ADP data recently hitting the site, I wanted to take a closer look at some ADP Twins, pairs of players with the exact same June dynasty ADP. These are clearly players that our dynasty community values similarly, but which is the right choice when participating in a startup draft?
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Let’s be honest. There’s really no wrong answer when choosing between receivers like Julio Jones and Allen Robinson. Both enjoyed career years in 2015 and the clear difference is the nearly five-year gap in age. At just 22 years old, Robinson posted 1,400 receiving yards and 14 scores and many are expecting some regressing in 2016. While Matt Ryan struggled, Jones somehow posted near record-breaking numbers as he saw a staggering 203 targets. We can also expect Jones’ numbers to drop in 2016, though it wouldn’t be a surprise if he upped his touchdown production from last year’s eight scores. In the end, I’m taking Robinson as the cornerstone of my team and it’s all about age and the four seasons I’m able to gain with him as compared to Jones.
Many of these ADP Twin battles features a running back versus a wide receiver and in the majority of those cases, I would opt for the receiver. That is true in this case as well, featuring Lamar Miller and Randall Cobb. It’s no secret that Cobb is my favorite player and a big part of fantasy football for me is having fun and cheering for players I like. This choice also comes down to my distrust for Miller as a feature back. During his time with the Dolphins, he never seemed to gain the trust of the coaching staff and time will tell if his tenure in Houston will be any different. Finally, the way I construct my teams leads me to favoring wideouts over running backs in the early rounds, meaning it is very rare for me to take a back in the second round.
Here’s another case of running back against a receiver and this choice is not so easy. While Josh Doctson has been a consensus top four pick in rookie drafts, dynasty owners don’t seem to know what to do with Eddie Lacy. After a disappointing 2015 season where his weight seemed to have a big role in his poor performance, reports are that Lacy is recommitted to the game and getting in better shape. This is a necessity for Lacy in a contract year. While I do expect a bounceback season from the Packers back, I would again choose the wide receiver, Doctson. With DeSean Jackson and Pierre Garcon likely ahead of him to start the season, I like Doctson’s opportunity and wouldn’t be surprised if one or both of the veterans are gone from Washington by this time next season.
This choice between fifth round picks is the easiest choice of this exercise. After undergoing foot surgery, Bengals tight end Tyler Eifert saw his value drop off in our recent ADP. While the injury is a concern and could keep him out of training camp and early season action, I still value him much more than a running back like CJ Anderson. The Broncos have continually given us clues as to how they value Anderson, making him part of a committee attack with an average talent like Ronnie Hillman and then tendering Anderson at the lowest option. While they did eventually match the offer sheet Anderson signed with Miami, I am still not confident the Broncos value Anderson as much as some dynasty owners might.
The final pair of ADP Twins presents my toughest decision, pitting second-year running back Thomas Rawls and veteran receiver Eric Decker. Both players have some questions entering the 2016 season, which is to be expected from most players in the sixth round. While dynasty owners are ready to lock Rawls in as a top five dynasty back, the Seahawks have given us some clues they might not be convinced he’s their next bell cow back. When considering he won’t really be a factor in the passing game, Rawls’ dynasty value takes even more of a hit. For Decker, the uncertainty centers around his quarterback, as the Jets and Ryan Fitzpatrick are locked in a contract battle. While I expect Fitzpatrick to eventually return to the Jets, I’m taking Rawls as this point, likely as my first running back in the draft. The addition of CJ Prosise should spell Rawls, hopefully keeping him healthy all year.