IDP Watch: Week 12

IDP leagues can be won with some preemptive in-season pickups or trading for players who are on the rise, but whom the masses have not picked up on. Each week, we’ll detail a handful of IDP players or trends essential for dynasty players to monitor.

Often, things like quarterback hurries, quarterback knockdowns or snap counts don’t appear in the box scores – these are key indicators of potential value changes that may be forthcoming as they show a particular player is getting after the quarterback and a string of sacks may be on the horizon or a linebacker may be coming off of the field more than originally expected.

Here are some players to keep an eye on based on recent performances:

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Demario Davis, ILB NYJ

In an interesting development, Davis lost significant playing time against the Dolphins this past week. He only played 50 percent of the team’s snaps with Erin Henderson stealing time on a little south of 50 percent. It’s horrible news for a player who’s played close to 100 percent of snaps all season. As of late, Davis has really struggled in coverage, particularly against running backs in the flats and head coach Todd Bowles seems fed up. Henderson was quoted as saying, “They told us this is how it would be, that we would go every other series.” Not only is this bad news for owners for 2015 since Davis’s production will drastically decline, but it sheds some light on where the Jets may be on re-signing Davis. If this trend continues, a free agent in 2016, Davis is highly likely to be in another uniform next season.

Denzel Perryman, ILB SD

Perryman continued his ascent in his second NFL start finishing with six tackles and an assist on 60 percent of the team’s snaps. This was the second consecutive week with Donald Butler relegated to a reserve role. Over that period, Butler has only played 20 percent of the team’s snaps. It was an impressive performance for Perryman who led the team in tackles despite losing time in subpackages. His play against the run has been phenomenal, as he’s maintained the physicality he exhibited in college. He’s taking on blockers and shedding blocks as he excels in stuffing the run. The key will be to see what happens with his subpackage snaps. Looking at the box score and seeing Perryman led the team in tackles would lead you to believe he played three downs. However, as noted, he was removed due to struggles in coverage. If he can improve there, Perryman has LB1 potential.

Jaquiski Tartt, SS SF

Tartt started the last four weeks at strong safety with Antoine Bethea out for the year. Over that time, he played 99 percent of the team’s snaps averaging four tackles and two assists. He’s a key player to watch down the stretch as he could very well supplant Bethea as a starter next season. His production is mediocre thus far, but a year as starter on a team that has to improve in 2016 (it can’t get worse…right?), the potential is there. Secondly, while his production isn’t jaw dropping thus far, it’s on the rise as of late. Given his natural tackling ability, he’s positioned to be a decent long-term option at safety.

Zach Brown, ILB TEN

Brown has struggled this season. After starting the year playing close to 100% of the team’s snaps, he lost playing time to Wesley Woodyard. Over the past few weeks, he’s only played 20 percent of the team’s snaps. His career as a Titan appears all but over after disappearing in the Titans’ 3-4 base defense. While his recent struggles led many to drop him across moderately deep IDP leagues, he’s an intriguing stash with the expectation that he’s a free agent this spring. His athleticism should be coveted and a return to a 4-3 outside linebacker role could rejuvenate his NFL production. His recent struggles support the pre-draft skepticism he is a workout warrior who struggles with inconsistency, but his two best seasons as a pro were in 2012 and 2013 as a 4-3 outside linebacker. A change in scheme could breed IDP value making him stash worthy.

Devin Taylor, DE DET

Taylor led the Lions’ defensive ends in snaps on Thanksgiving. Some of that had to do with the blowout, but if you look back at the snap counts throughout the year, he’s in a full-blow rotation with Ziggy Ansah and Jason Jones playing roughly 60 percent of the team’s snaps on a consistent basis. With Jones situated to be a free agent this spring and Taylor still with one year left on his contract, this has the makings of a sizable value bump for Taylor come next summer as his snap share is a good bet to increase in 2016. He’s one of my favorite stashes for 2016 despite the modest improvement in 2015 and disappearing in weeks 10 and 11. He’s a worthy stash to monitor down the stretch with the likelihood for a more prominent role in 2016.

Arik Armstead, DE SF

With Glenn Dorsey out for the remainder of the year with a torn ACL, the expectation was for Armstead to see a significant increase in playing time this past week. Unfortunately, he only played 18 snaps (~20%) in week 12. Evidently, coach Jim Tomsula didn’t want to give Armstead too much work since he was on the injury report with a shoulder injury and was “sore.” Instead, he played predominantly in their dime packages and Mike Purcell filled in for Dorsey in base packages. The snap count is baffling considering the 49ers current situation in the standings and the fact that Armstead was listed as probable. You would assume they want to get their young players some experience, but give it one more week to see if it truly was an injury issue. If healthy, he should see a sizable share of snaps.

Adrian Amos, FS CHI

After playing close to every snap all season with little production in the box score, Amos has stepped up his game the last two weeks. Over that span, he has 15 tackles, an assist and a sack. That’s top five production. He’s playing very well and is solidifying his spot for next season in the process. With the last two weeks of production, Amos is a worthy stash in moderately deep leagues.

David Amerson, CB OAK

Amerson’s recent play pushed DJ Hayden to the bench. This past week, Hayden only played five snaps, while Amerson played close to every down (60 snaps). He only finished with two tackles, but amassed six passes defended. Over the last two weeks, he has 10 passes defended. If your league rewards this, he’s a premium add with the increase in snaps and how active he is knocking down balls. Teams are really going after him, which has led to the high volume of break ups. While he’s playing well and not giving up many receptions, considering how often teams are targeting him, he’s worth a short-term add for playoff teams to close out the year.

Deeper Dynasty Watches

Vinny Curry, DE PHI – Curry is miscast in a 3-4 base defense and is an ideal fit as a 4-3 defensive end. That’s exactly where he was drafted to play prior to coaching staff changes and prior to a scheme shift to a 3-4 base defense. He’s an elite pass-rusher who is set to be a free agent in 2016. He could land in a 4-3 scheme and see his value catapult. He’s a great speculative add for next season with hopes of a scheme change.

Andre Hal, FS HOU – About a month ago, the Texans benched Rahim Moore in favor of Hal. He hasn’t put up huge numbers since starting as of week eight, but he’s a converted cornerback seeing a high volume (100 percent) of snaps at safety in his second year. He’s worth stashing to see how he performs down the stretch with hopes of securing a long-term starting role.

Sean Spence, ILB PIT – Shazier left last week’s game against the Seahawks with a concussion and Spence filled in. It’s unclear whether Shazier will miss time, but the more time he misses, the more time for Spence to showcase his talents for free agency. Spence is currently under-appreciated across IDP leagues considering his handful of knee injuries, but he’s extremely talented. He should be stashed in deeper leagues with the expectation for a more prominent role next year.

Follow Steve on Twitter @SteveWyremski

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