The Good, the Bad and the Ugly Truth: Week Eight
One of the things we as human beings tend to do an awful lot of in our lives is react to the things we see around us. Often times this is a good thing. For example, if a car just so happens to be driving down the same sidewalk you are walking on, you better get out of the way! That’s definitely a good reaction.
There is another side of the coin, though – that is the gross overreaction which is becoming more and more common into today’s world, thanks in part to social media. This isn’t just in life but also in the world of fantasy football. It isn’t uncommon for the smallest of things are blown way out of proportion. Other times what should be a minor blip on the radar gets way more attention than it deserves. There are also times when we ignore all of the warning signs and try to stay the course, not realizing we are heading for a cliff. Don’t worry though, because I’m here to help with these very things.
Each week I will examine a player or sometimes multiple players to see if their value is on par with what people are talking about. Often times this will be a player who “breaks out” the previous week and might be getting a lot of attention in trade talks or on the waiver wire. Other times it might be a player who received a lot of hype during the off-season who isn’t living up to expectations. Regardless of what it is, I’ll be doing my best to steer you in the right direction and get you a step ahead of your leaguemates.
Keep in mind that no one is perfect. After all, I told you to ignore Justin Forsett after opening weekend last year. Hey, we all make mistakes, but I like to think I’ve had a pretty good track record over the years of doing this. Two years ago, I was one of the first to lay out why you needed to trade Trent Richardson for whatever you could get, much like the Browns had done a week or two before. At the time I was blasted by readers, but if you listened you sold before his value crashed. I was also dead on with Larry Donnell fading down the stretch, Allen Hurns being good enough to stay ahead of Marqise Lee on the depth chart, Antone Smith being little more than a rarely used homerun hitter, and countless other takes from the last few years. Moral of the story, I miss from time-to-time like everyone else, but I feel I get it right much more often. When I’m wrong, I’ll own that mistake.
[am4show have=’g1;’ guest_error=’sub_message’ user_error=’sub_message’ ]
I’m going to break form a little bit this week. Instead of looking at a player, I’m going to focus in on the Pittsburgh Steelers offense. With the loss of Le’Veon Bell for the season, the shape of the offense is a little bit in question. Can DeAngelo Williams be a viable asset for teams trying to make the playoffs this season? How will the loss of Bell impact the production of Ben Roethlistberger and Antonio Brown? Will someone else need to step up and fill the void? Fortunately for us, we had a little sneak peek of a Bell-less Steelers team at the start of this season. So let’s use that to help us forecast the rest of the season.
Running Game
Allow me to start with the position most obviously impacted on the team, the running backs. During the first two weeks of this year we were able to see the Steelers’ offense with Williams as the leading rusher. He performed much better than most people expected with 21 carries for 127 yards and one catch for five yards against the Patriots very good rush defense. The following week he rewarded fantasy owners who took a chance on him with three touchdowns while rushing 20 times for 77 yards and adding in four receptions for another 15 yards against what has turned out to be a below average 49ers defense.
Altogether, Williams was able to turn his two starts into 42 carries for 204 yards (4.86 YPC), three touchdowns and five catches for 20 yards. Those are definitely RB1 numbers. Not bad for someone who was pretty much left for dead by the entire NFL and virtually every fantasy owner as well!
Moving forward, the Steelers have shown have no concerns about riding one running back. During those first two weeks, there were a total of five carries by running backs not named DeAngelo. Most of them were in very short yardage situations. When Bell came back, even though Williams was extremely successful the first two weeks, it was much the same story. It was a one back system as far as rushing the ball. The Steelers are not going to suddenly turn into a committee team.
In terms of talent, Williams clearly isn’t Bell, especially when it comes to catching the ball out of the backfield. Yes, Williams will catch some passes, but he isn’t going to catch a little swing route and take it 25 yards like Bell does from time to time. He also isn’t very likely to catch 5+ passes on a weekly basis. However, Williams has shown he still has some juice in those 32 year old legs and can make an explosive play from time to time. If he can stay healthy, which has always been a question mark for him, there isn’t any reason he won’t get around 20 carries each week with a handful of receptions. He’ll definitely be in the RB1 mix with some nice touchdown chances as well. If you’re contending and can get him reasonably cheap given the injury risk, then go for it! Jordan Todman might also be worth a speculative add in larger leagues since he is next on the depth chart and Williams isn’t the most durable rusher in the league. Just don’t expect Todman to see much action unless there is an injury.
In terms of Bell, the initial time table is about nine months, putting him back with the team right around training camp time. If all goes well, he could start the regular season. If there is any kind of set back, he’s a candidate for the PUP list next year. Either way, I would expect the Steelers to upgrade their running back depth chart this next offseason as insurance.
Passing Game
It doesn’t seem to matter who is in the backfield. The Steelers’ passing attack has turned into one of the best in the entire NFL. People don’t give Big Ben the respect he deserves for what have been some very, very good seasons over the last few years. His touchdown numbers aren’t quite as gaudy as some of the other top quarterbacks in the league, largely because they run the ball at the goal line instead of passing, but by virtually every other measurement he has been right with the best in the game over the last few seasons.
A huge part of the credit for that success belongs to Antonio Brown for developing into one of the premier receivers in the NFL and the poster child for everyone who feels wide receiver height is over rated. With Big Ben at quarterback, I expect Brown to restart the streak he lost when Ben got hurt. Brown is going to continue to see double digit targets with 5+ receptions for 80+ yards virtually every week.
As for the rest of the passing game, the only real change I expect as a result of Bell’s injury might be a slight uptick for Heath Miller. As I mentioned earlier, Williams isn’t the same quality of pass catcher as Bell. This means more of the short routes could be finding their way into Miller’s hands. He had a massive 13 targets for 10 receptions last week, with a lot of them coming after Bell’s injury. Miller is going to be the security blanket and the top check down option now that Bell is out. He might make for a very low cost option for someone in need of a tight end for their championship push. I wouldn’t say the ceiling is super high, but his floor definitely came up in PPR leagues as a result of the injury.
[/am4show]
- Final 2021 Pre-Draft Rookie Mock: Round Three - April 28, 2021
- Final 2021 Pre-Draft Rookie Mock: Round Two - April 26, 2021
- Final 2021 Pre-Draft Rookie Mock: Round One - April 25, 2021
