Tuesday Transactions: Week Seven
Dynasty football is undoubtedly a marathon, not a sprint. With that said, in-season roster management is still every bit as critical as in a standard re-draft format, and arguably even more so given the potential long-term ramifications. As such, this weekly piece is here to provide you with a dozen moves it might just behoove you to make.
Continuing, these transactions will be broken down into four categories: players you should buy low, sell high, buy high and sell low. The first two are self explanatory and follow the typical stock market analogy, which is that you should pounce when the market fluctuates in your favor – if you can get the most bang for your buck or scoop up the metaphorical penny stocks who have room to grow, it could be in your best interest to do so. Conversely, the latter two categories represent a contradictory stance, and some might even consider them “desperation” moves – however, it’s my belief that buying high beats buying higher, and selling low is preferable to selling even lower.
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Before I dispense my advice though, I want to provide one final disclaimer – these opinions are my own. If you’re higher or lower on any of the players mentioned below you should absolutely stick to your guns. With that said, I believe there’s also enough of a sample size thus far in the season where we can begin to diverge from our off-season assessments.
As a reminder, last week’s edition was a retrospective of the lessons I’ve learned through the first quarter of the season. I’d recommend you take a look, as much of what I’ve found still applies.
Onto the fallout from week seven!
Buy Low
- Charles Sims, RB TB–Though I’ve been extremely critical of Sims in the past, and still don’t view him as any sort of exceptional talent, the fact is he’s been getting plenty of usage as of late. To that point, even though backfield mate Doug Martin is playing out of his mind, Sims has still managed to average 10.5 touches per game, turning them into a weekly 66 total yards. Martin is a free agent after the season, and while his play warrants an extension we’ve all seen how devalued the running back position has become – already a FLEX play now, Sims could flirt with RB2 value next year and beyond.
- Matt Ryan, QB ATL – Matty Ice has been more like Vanilla Ice this year, failing to top 300 passing yards in six of seven games and barely averaging one passing score per contest. With that said, if 286 yards and 1.3 touchdowns is the floor, sign me up given what we know of his ceiling. While quarterback remains a strangely overvalued position in fantasy, and Ryan might not come at a huge discount due to his name recognition, it’s worth a shot to buy low.
- Chris Conley, WR KC – Seemingly an afterthought prior to week seven, Conley erupted to the tune of 6-63-1 in his first extensive game action due to Jeremy Maclin’s absence. Given the efficiency he showed while leading the team in targets, it’s fair to wonder if this could lead to Conley leapfrogging fellow receiver Albert Wilson for good, functioning as the team’s WR2 when Maclin returns. In a season where rookie wideouts have largely underwhelmed, it might only take another game like this for owners to start feeling the “itch” for a talented young player potentially busting out.
Sell High
- Darren McFadden, RB DAL – Yes, McFadden looked great amassing over 150 yards against the Giants. With that said, we haven’t seen sustained production from the former first round pick in several years now, be it due to injury or bad play. Nevertheless, Run DMC is clearly the guy right now, given Joseph Randle’s injury and Christine Michael’s general ineptitude. Given the relatively dire state at the running back position, that could be enough of a selling point for prospective buyers.
- Alfred Blue, RB HOU – You can pretty much read my section on Knile Davis from a few weeks ago and essentially glean the same general strategy. Blue isn’t good – like, at all – but he’ll gain some traction due to his newfound place in the starting lineup. More likely, however, this will devolve into something of a committee, and given how bad the Texans are it’s more than likely they’ll be playing from behind more often than not. I’m going to keep screaming “Sell!” here until I’m “Blue in the face” (oof – sorry about that).
- Antonio Andrews, RB TEN – I don’t believe there’s anything special about Andrews’ talent, which is a problem given the team for which he plays. Titans’ coach Ken Whisenhunt simply doesn’t care about forming any sort of consistent backfield rotation, meaning Andrews’ share could be subject to change on a weekly basis. And with rookie David Cobb due back in a few short weeks, it could evaporate completely.
Buy High
- Stefon Diggs, WR MIN–In a season where rookies have disappointed relative to expectations (or have simply been hurt), Diggs has been a revelation. In less than half the season he soundly passed off-season hype star Charles Johnson en route to forging a place in the starting lineup, and he doesn’t appear to be letting up anytime soon. Not every path to NFL stardom is a traditional one, but going from fifth-round pick to professional asset certainly isn’t unheard of. If Diggs keeps up this pace, his price is only going to keep going up.
- Orleans Darkwa, RB NYG – High is a relative term here, but Darkwa is now on the radar following his efficient performance versus Dallas. While his backfield compatriots have largely scuffled this season, Darkwa provided a shot in the arm and should already be ahead of the underwhelming Andre Williams. Even if buying “high” comes in the form of a large chunk of your waiver budget, this could be the guy to own moving forward.
- Gary Barnidge, TE CLE – There remains perhaps no unlikelier breakout than that of the Browns’ 30-year old tight end. And yet, here he stands as the owner of three 100-yard games and five touchdowns thus far in the young season. Extrapolated to 16 games, Barnidge’s pace would see him finish with a massive line of 75-1,174-11. In other words, exactly what we were expecting! With that said, you can only ignore these types of surprises for so long, and it’s now time to take this veteran breakout seriously as a weekly high-end option.
Sell Low
- Arian Foster, RB HOU – While he’s always played well when healthy, it’s the latter portion of that hypothetical that has proved trickiest. To that point, Foster has missed 14 games over the last 2.5 seasons, remaining a perpetual injury risk. Sunday’s torn Achilles tendon could very well be the final nail in the coffin of a fantastic career, both in real life and fantasy, shelving Foster for the rest of the season and leaving his future murky. Arguably the toughest injury to return from, it would be challenging for any player to come back strong, let alone a 29-year old running back with lots of miles on his tires. Simply put, nostalgia doesn’t win you anything in fantasy, and if a league-mate still views him as a “reclamation project” I’d sell for nickels on the dollar.
- Alfred Morris, RB WSH – I’ve long been a fan of Morris, but the cold, hard truth is he’s been soundly passed on the depth chart by rookie Matt Jones. And while I still view him as a quality NFL runner, there just isn’t much use for a two-dimensional ball carrier in today world of split backfields. Given these limitations it’s difficult to envision him bouncing back to his rookie form, but much like with Foster above there will always be owners willing to take a shot. Perhaps you can find one in your league.
- Mychal Rivera, TE OAK – Okay, I’ll admit this is some serious dumpster diving here, but perhaps Rivera still has some believers based on his garbage-time fueled 2014 season. However, it’s now become clear he doesn’t offer the same type of upside as rookie Clive Walford, who affords more of a field-stretching ability. Even if “selling” is akin to dropping him for a player with more upside, it might be the prudent move.
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