Nicked Up

Rob Willette Posted On October 17, 2015

chubb

If you’re an advertiser dabbling in college football these days, your best opportunity to make money may be by slapping your business on the side of the injury cart. From James Conner to Mike Williams to Robert Foster, devy rosters have been inundated with injured stars and shattered dreams. The latest gut punch came when a seemingly innocuous carry from Nick Chubb turned disastrous when he tumbled awkwardly along the sidelines. The aftermath is less than ideal – damage to multiple ligaments and Wednesday scuttlebutt indicating the injury “could be a career-ender.”

Elaborating on the specifics of the injury is well outside my area of expertise (we’ll defer to the Dynasty Doctor on that one). Recent history has been a mixed bag when it comes to star runners bouncing back from serious injury. While still early, former Chubb teammate Todd Gurley does not appear to have missed a beat after succumbing to a torn ACL late during his junior year. Conversely, Marcus Lattimore never got right after a gruesome leg injury suffered during his time at South Carolina. Going back even farther, Willis McGahee carved out a long and successful NFL career after having his leg turned into a pendulum at Miami. These examples – while also successfully assisting me in reaching the word limit – demonstrate the variables in play. Chubb’s future is predicated on a lot of factors, many of which devy owners will not be privy to.

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It only took Chubb one plus season to soar from one whom many dubbed the second most talented freshman running back recruit on Georgia’s roster to a nearly untouchable devy asset. At 5’10” and 227 pounds, he already has NFL lead back size and proved supreme athleticism at the 2013 version of “The Opening,” finishing second in SPARQ score among elite high school recruits. His 1,547 yards as a true freshman actually surpassed Gurley’s best season and perhaps the best indication of his overall talent level is the fact the Georgia offense rolled on as effective as ever even after Gurley went down in 2014. He checks virtually every box as a prospect; losing him long-term in an environment where we go nuts over Charcandrick West would be depressing. He’s a rare talent and was poised to be part of a monster class of 2017 runners. Now, questions loom.

The big question, of course, is to how to view Chubb’s value. If you’ve invested an early pick in him, you’re unlikely to part with him at a heavy discount. There’s little to be gained from a desperation sell and far too little known about long-term impact. It likely moves fellow 2017 backs Leonard Fournette and Dalvin Cook ahead of him in most rankings, but there’s no need to send him plummeting into the land of Mario Pender. Even if some of his ability is sapped, he’s an elite prospect and the gamble he will make a full recovery is one worth taking.

On the positive side, Chubb’s absence will give us an extended look at Sony Michel, who was widely perceived to be a superior recruit. He acquitted himself well in relief of Chubb against Tennessee, piling up 145 yards on 22 carries and looking smooth doing it. It was the first time Michel surpassed 20 carries in his career and operating as a bellcow will do wonders to eschew the notion he’s merely a niche back. It will also assist in him showcasing the ability to wear down a defense over the course of sixty minutes – one of the big knocks on him has been his ability to avoid going down on first contact. We’ll get a long view of his potential as a true lead runner as he moves out of Chubb’s shadow. Despite an impressive skill-set and notable versatility (he looks natural as a pass catcher), I’m not bullish on Michel long-term and would look to sell high were he to put together a massive statistical season.

Also in line to see carries for the Bulldogs is Keith Marshall, a former devy darling who despite seemingly having been on campus since 1997, is only a fourth year player who entered Georgia at the same time as Gurley. It is easy to forget he posted 759 yards and eight rushing touchdowns as a true freshman and at 5’11”, 212 pounds with plus wheels many were salivating over his long-term potential. A series of injuries and the dominance of Gurley pushed him aside, but he appears to finally be healthy and ready to assist Michel in Georgia’s backfield. It may be too late for Marshall to live up to the recruiting hype but on physical tools alone, he’s a draftable prospect and can cement his status with a strong campaign.

Losing any promising running back prospect is upsetting given the current hellscape which is the dynasty running back grouping, but Chubb especially hurts. Even with only one year under his belt, he was poised to develop into a Gurley-level prospect and one of the rare transcendent talents at running back. The fantasy community needs him back if it is going to fully embrace the stacked nature of the running back position across the nation.

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