2015 Preseason Rookie Mock Draft: Round Two
The off-season is over and meaningful games are just around the corner! I know I’m terribly excited and a sense of dread has already overtaken my wife! That is what happens when the football season approaches, though. Most of you have already had your rookie drafts, but you’re hopefully still watching your favorite rookies and waiting for the right time to make an offer on them. In order to help those evaluations as well as helping those of you who are about to draft, we are back with one last rookie mock draft of the year. For an extra twist, this mock will feature ten of our newest writers, letting them share their views on some of their favorite rookies.
If you’re unfamiliar with how our mock drafts work, here is the quick rundown. Our rules for the mock draft are as follows:
- Standard PPR scoring with normal lineup requirements
- Draft order is randomly generated and no trades are allowed
- Draft the best player available without any consideration for team need or previous players drafted
Once the mock is complete, each drafter was asked to provide some comments about the player they drafted. In order to provide a second perspective on each selection, I will also provide some comments on each of the choices. From time-to-time we will disagree on a player, and that’s perfectly fine. There is no group think here at DLF (that was proven yesterday) and sometimes we get widely different opinions on players. I’ll be the first to admit that we, and especially me, will get a few of these players wrong. It happens to all of us.
The first round was a little crazy with some of our new writers taking us in some different directions. If you missed it, you can take a look at it here. The second round is a bit more traditional with a lot of the usual names, though the order has definitely shifted for a few of them. There are also a few newcomers to the second round.
2.01 – Breshad Perriman, WR BAL
Bruce’s thoughts: Perriman is a steal here. He’s not going to have any competition for targets. He has elite speed, which make him a perfect fit with Joe Flacco because he loves to throw the deep ball. He is going to be the future WR1 for the Ravens. I’m concerned about his knee injury and how it’s going to affect his development. He hasn’t practiced much during training camp and his status for the season opener is in question. I don’t know how much of an impact he will have this season, but he’s too talented to keep off the field if he’s healthy. He is a rare specimen with his size and speed. He has Julio Jones upside and that’s hard to ignore. More than likely he’s going to yield Torrey Smith like results. I will always take the home run swing at selecting a future WR1 and Perriman has the potential to be a top-10 wide receiver.
My thoughts: While I mostly agree with most of what Bruce mentioned, there is a lot of risk with Perriman. After all, there is a reason he has been primarily a late first round selection in rookie drafts since the NFL Draft. Yes, there is a lot of upside given his size and speed. However, there are also a lot of things to be concerned about. Most notable are questionable hands which have been a red flag for him all off-season. He hasn’t participated in training camp, but he struggled with drops during minicamp. If the last month is any indication, we can add in health as a concern as well. The upside is there, but there is quite a bit of risk as well.
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2.02 – Phillip Dorsett, WR IND
Mike’s thoughts: With most of the top shelf receivers already gone, I went to the middle tiered shelf and grabbed Dorsett. He may not have much value this season, but as each year passes he will be more and more valuable. With Andrew Luck at the helm and great offensive talent around him, he should be a great asset for years to come. Being mixed in with talent around him will mean less opportunity especially this season, but he has the speed and moves to get deep, and Luck will make the magic happen. Dorsett is coming off a partially torn MCL, but he looks as though that is behind him.
My thoughts: Dorsett’s short term value took a little bit of a hit when TY Hilton signed his extension. It means the best case is him operating as the third receiver as long as Andre Johnson is with the team. Of course the Colts could cut Johnson ahead of the 2016 season, but that seems a little unlikely. Dorsett has a lot of talent and the third receiver for Luck is going to be better than the second receiver for a lot of other quarterbacks. Now Dorsett just needs to beat out Donte Moncrief for the role. I don’t expect that to happen right away, but it could by midseason.
2.03 – Jaelen Strong, WR HOU
Harrison’s thoughts: Jaelen Strong looked like a potential top pick in the first round of rookie drafts before the NFL draft. Athletically, he doesn’t really have weaknesses. He ran a 4.44 forty yard dash, his production was actually on par with Kevin White and he had a higher vertical than White. His obvious weakness is that he was drafted a lot later than almost everyone predicted. We still don’t know whether it was his character concerns, weight issues, or if scouts straight up didn’t like his film. However, he’s an ideal second rounder who may become the best receiver in this deep class on a receiver needy team.
My thoughts: Like Harrison, I’m still not quite sure why Strong slipped so far in the NFL draft. I expected him to go in the early second round, so him going a full round later was a bit of a shock. The situation is great for him though as he just needs to beat out journeymen Cecil Shorts and Nate Washington for a starting role. Sometime it takes a little while for rookies to prove themselves and make the transition, but I expect Strong to be starting by mid-season. Once he has the role, he has the upside of a WR2, but that will require a real quarterback on the team. With whoever the Texans put back there right now from the mess they call a quarterback depth chart, Strong is going to be lucky to reach WR3 numbers.
2.04 – David Cobb, RB TEN
Chris’ thoughts: I want to get someone who can contribute this year. I don’t mind if there is a better player ahead of who I’m drafting and I need to wait until it’s his time to shine. David Cobb is in a situation where he can play in 2015. He will take over the role at some point this year and could hold a lot of value. Cobb’s value will ultimately end up with me dealing him to build my team. I’m just not sure Cobb is a long-term running back.
My thoughts: As a proud University of Minnesota alumnus, I’m always happy when I see a former Gopher being successful or at least being projected for success. From a pure talent perspective, Cobb really isn’t anything special. He runs hard, has a great work ethic and has enough ability to make a defender miss once in a while. However, he lacks that “wow” factor I talked about back in round one. On most NFL teams, Cobb would be a high end backup for the next few years and someone you could count on if the lead back went down. On the Titans, with only the disappointing Bishop Sankey ahead of him, he could definitely see a lot of playing time this year and be the week one starter in 2016. He makes for a nice value pick but probably isn’t a true building block for your franchise. Then again, players like Shonn Greene were relevant for years!
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2.05 – Duke Johnson, RB CLE
Adam’s thoughts: Johnson was a force in college, leaving Miami as the school’s all-time leading rusher as well as an early Heisman candidate. He might need a year or two to build out his role, but as a PPR back he is still going to eat. Shows explosive burst and has the “IT” factor needed at the NFL level. Really happy to get him here, I’m not going to let the most recent concussion deter me from taking him in the middle of the second. He might have a slower start, but can dominate your flex position in the coming years.
My thoughts: I have a really hard time advocating anyone on the Cleveland Browns right now. The team seems to be an absolute mess with almost no one to build the franchise around. The passing game is going to be a mess with a well past his prime quarterback and castoffs as the “leading” receivers, allowing defenses to key in on stopping the young running backs. When it comes to Johnson specifically, notice it was running backs not running back in the last sentence. I think it is very realistic to expect three different rushers to get multiple carries each game if they are all healthy. None of the three were able to create any kind of separation between themselves and the pack, making this a gigantic mess. There is a chance Johnson emerges as the lead dog in this race, but I think it is just as likely he is third on the pecking order. Lots of risk and a slim chance for a payout with Johnson.
2.06 – Devin Funchess, WR CAR
Izzy’s thoughts: I didn’t really have much of a debate here, but I did kick around David Johnson. I would have considered Duke Johnson had this draft taken place two days earlier, but Duke’s concussion history dating back to the “U” made my decision easy. Funchess gives me the best chance of outplaying the 2.06 draft position and is a prime candidate to gain first round value throughout the season. I’m not in love with his talent, but if I can draft a player in the second round and potentially trade him for a first, I’ll do it. With Kelvin Benjamin on IR, Funchess is going to get peppered with targets.
My thoughts: If you’re looking at short-term production, you could argue Funchess belongs in the first round of rookie drafts. However, dynasty leagues need to take into account more than just year one production which keeps Funchess in the middle to late second. I’ve been pretty anti-Funchess for months now. He could be one of the better tight ends in the NFL with a little added muscle, but as a receiver I think he lacks the athletic ability to consistently get open. He’s a lot like Benjamin but simply not as good. I think the Panthers are in trouble with Funchess as the top target at the receiver position and he’s much more of a situational receiver at the NFL level. In fantasy leagues, I don’t view him as anything more than a WR3 at best long term with a chance for WR2 numbers this year due to the situation.
2.07 – David Johnson, RB ARI
Eric O’s thoughts: Even though I believe Andre Ellington will remain the lead back in the desert, it’s foolish to overlook the talent Johnson has shown. If anything happens to Ellington, Johnson has the ability to step in a do a lot of the same things he does. I’m not buying the Chris Johnson signing as anything other than depth.
My thoughts: I don’t think David Johnson is a feature back. I think he is a change of pace back who excels in the passing game. His skill set duplicates Ellington’s, which is unfortunate because Ellington has quite a few holes in his game as well. I’m not sure how the playing time is going to break down between the two but for Johnson to have any real value on a fantasy roster I think it is going to require an Ellington injury. Long term, I expect the Cardinals to address the deficiencies of the current running back group by adding a true pounder in the draft next year.
2.08 – Tyler Lockett, WR SEA
Matt P’s thoughts: The Seattle Seahawks traded a third, fourth, fifth, and sixth round pick to move up and select Lockett with the 69th overall pick of the 2015 NFL draft. Spending that kind of draft capital indicates to me that the team has big plans for the diminutive receiver out of Kansas State. He has already shown his rare play speed and explosiveness as a kick returner in the preseason with two returns for touchdowns already under his belt. On the offensive side of things, there isn’t a ton of competition in front of Lockett that could prevent him from becoming a starter as early as this season. Doug Baldwin is a nice player, but he is nowhere near the technician that Lockett is. I see a little bit of Antonio Brown in his game but the Seahawks style of offense could limit him from reaching his ultimate upside.
My thoughts: Last year it was Paul Richardson and this year it is Tyler Lockett. Both players have similar profiles as highly athletic, highly productive college players but are undersized for the NFL at the receiver position. Richardson went down with an ACL injury last year and is still recovering, which will allow Lockett to see the field as a return specialist in the short term, which is a role he should excel at. Long term, I love the skill set but receivers his size are always a long shot. When you combine that with him being at best fourth on the wide receiver depth chart, it isn’t a good sign. If you have a taxi squad slot, I think he makes a decent stash in hopes he can carve out a role, but on that offense I think you’re going to be waiting a while for him to come to fantasy relevance.
2.09 – Cameron Artis-Payne, RB CAR
Mo’s thoughts: Believing Jonathan Stewart can be the bell cow for a full season is inviting heartbreak. I don’t doubt that he’ll produce a few great games in 2015, but Stewart hasn’t played a full 16 game schedule since 2011. If you believe he’ll breakdown at some point this year, drafting Cameron Artis-Payne is a no-brainer. When and if Stewart misses time, Artis-Payne will assume the role and shine. Entering 2016, there’s a high probability Stewart and C.A.P. are in a timeshare, if Stewart is even on the team. Many owners need concrete confirmation of a player’s role before they’re willing to invest in them. You can beat these owners to the punch by seeing the writing on the wall and drafting Artis-Payne now.
My thoughts: This is Artis-Payne’s first appearance in the second round of any of my rookie mocks. He has already secured the backup role for Stewart and will likely be given the leading role if (when?) Stewart goes down, but I question the level of talent Artis-Payne brings to the table. I view him as more of an Alfred Morris type of rusher from a skill set standpoint. He has limited speed and agility and lacks passing game skills. If something does happen to Stewart, I think it would be a committee situation on what could be shaping up to be one of the worst offenses in the league. The ceiling is pretty low in my eyes, but there is a chance for low end RB2 production this year if an injury occurs.
2.10 – Javorius Allen, RB BAL
Austan’s thoughts: This is a safe selection, not really a pick with home run upside. Allen, a good pass-catching back, lands in a Marc Trestman offense which loves to utilize running backs as receivers. I prefer Allen to the four running backs taken before him in this round, seeing him as a player who is going to contribute earlier in his career than Cobb, Artis-Payne or either Johnson. I don’t foresee him ever being an RB1, but I envision him being a solid, steady producer, especially in a PPR league such as this one.
My thoughts: At this point in rookie drafts, my personal style starts to switch a little bit. What I start to look for in a player is upside. Do they have the physical ability to be a starter on my fantasy roster or is their ceiling somewhere around the bye week flex play level? In the case of Allen, I think he’s the latter. The best case for him is as the passing down running back. The problem is Justin Forsett also excels in the passing game. Yes, Forsett is old, but I don’t see Allen ever being more than a passing specialist. While some players like Darren Sproles have had value in that role, I think that is the exception and not the rule.
2.11 – Matt Jones, RB WAS
Ryan F’s thoughts: This pick was between 2 guys for me, Jones or Maxx Williams, who went with the very next pick. Jones is a back in a situation that may be ripe for him to take the starting job fairly soon. Though Washington has the established starter in Alfred Morris, a third round pick spent on Jones may spell trouble for Alf. Jones is both bigger and faster than Morris, and has already flashed in the preseason. Morris is also in the final year of his current deal, which could open a large hole for the talented Jones.
My thoughts: One of the fastest risers this training camp has been Matt Jones. I was able to pick him up in the fourth round of rookie drafts this spring in several leagues. He’s big, fast, and knows how to play all three downs. I think the Redskins drafted him to be the future of the running back position and this will be Morris’s last year with the team. It wouldn’t surprise me if this year is much more of a committee than people expect with Jones locked in as the three down starter for the 2016 season. If you haven’t tried to pick him up yet, you might want to look into it. I would have considered him towards the top of this round.
2.12 – Maxx Williams, TE BAL
My thoughts: While the second round wasn’t quite as shocking as the first round, there were still quite a few surprises. One of the bigger surprises in my eyes was seeing Williams slide to the end of the second round. Maybe I shouldn’t be surprised, because it seems to happen almost every single year. The top tight ends in any given draft class always seem to slide down the boards as the season approaches because they don’t make a whole lot of noise in training camp.
When it comes to tight ends, there is one thing you need to remember. It is one of the hardest positions to make the transition from college to the NFL. Rookie tight ends always struggle. If you felt Williams was worth an early second round this spring, keep him at that value. Keep him where ever he was on your board and realize he isn’t going to be productive until 2016 at the earliest. It is the nature of the position. It is part of why I love targeting rookie tight ends in trade talks during the middle of their rookie year. People get frustrated and give up on them. In terms of talent, Williams isn’t elite, but I think he could definitely be in the back end TE1 discussion within a year or two.
That concludes our look at the second round. What about the second round surprises you? Our third and final round will be out tomorrow night and feature some of our favorite fliers.
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- Final 2021 Pre-Draft Rookie Mock: Round Three - April 28, 2021
- Final 2021 Pre-Draft Rookie Mock: Round Two - April 26, 2021
- Final 2021 Pre-Draft Rookie Mock: Round One - April 25, 2021
