2015 Preseason Rookie Mock Draft: Round One
The off-season is over and meaningful games are just around the corner. I know I’m terribly excited and a sense of dread has already overtaken my wife! That is what happens when the football season approaches, though. Most of you have already had your rookie drafts, but you’re hopefully still watching your favorite rookies and waiting for the right time to make an offer on them. In order to help those evaluations as well as helping those of you who are about to draft, we are back with one last rookie mock draft of the year. For an extra twist, this mock will feature ten of our newest writers, letting them share their views on some of their favorite rookies.
If you’re unfamiliar with how our mock drafts work, here is the quick rundown. Our rules for the mock draft are as follows:
- Standard PPR scoring with normal lineup requirements
- Draft order is randomly generated and no trades are allowed
- Draft the best player available without any consideration for team need or previous players drafted
Once the mock is complete, each drafter was asked to provide some comments about the player they drafted. In order to provide a second perspective on each selection, I will also provide some comments on each of the choices. From time to time we will disagree on a player, and that’s perfectly fine. There is no group think here at DLF (thus a big reason we wanted a bunch of the new team members in this) and sometimes we get widely different opinions on players. I’ll be the first to admit that we, and especially me, will get a few of these players wrong. It happens to all of us.
Training camp is underway and at the time of drafting and writing, the third weekend of preseason games is currently taking place. What has happened over the last month has drastically impacted the value of a few rookies in the minds of some while others, like me, tend to put a little less stock in what occurs when the games don’t matter. Let’s see how our drafters felt. Rounds two and three will be appearing later this week, but here is round one.
1.01 – Amari Cooper, WR OAK
Bruce’s thoughts: He’s one of the best wide receiver prospects to enter the draft since the year Julio Jones and AJ Green came out. He’s a polished route runner and NFL ready. He broke out at the age of 18 and he was massively productive at Alabama. The situation at Oakland is the only flaw on his dynasty resume. Historically, Oakland doesn’t generate stud fantasy players. He will also be paired with Derek Carr, who is still in the developmental stages of his career. Cooper has top-five wide receiver upside. He is going to be the key component to a lot of my dynasty teams for a good six-to-ten years. He’s a bullet proof prospect, meaning it’s highly unlikely he will bust. I’m doing whatever it takes to get him on my dynasty teams.
My thoughts: In my eyes, Cooper always has been and continues to be the top rookie in fantasy drafts and it really isn’t all that close. Not only is he the safest of the rookies, but I also think he has near elite upside. While I might question Bruce’s assessment of top five, largely due to the fact that Cooper’s game lacks the up in the air component elite receivers tend to possess, I think he does have top ten upside. I’m not too worried about him being in Oakland because even bad teams can support one good fantasy receiver.
Editor’s Note: Make sure you enter the DLF FanDuel Football Championship, exclusively for followers of DLF. Seriously. We have a $20,000 prize pool here, folks.
[am4show have=’g1;’ guest_error=’sub_message’ user_error=’sub_message’ ]
 1.02 – Melvin Gordon, RB SD
Mike’s thoughts: In this rookie draft, there are only wide receivers and running backs worth going in the top four. With Cooper gone at pick one, this leaves me the contention of going with either Melvin Gordon or Todd Gurley. Personally, I am not a fan of Gurley in a Rams uniform. They have a mess of problems on their roster and offensive line. Their quarterback is not someone who is going to spend many years there (Nick Foles) and can we trust Jeff Fisher? Therefore, the obvious answer for me was Gordon. He has a solid quarterback in Philip Rivers, a better offensive line and he’s fast and strong – perfect for the Mike McCoy offense. His only weakness is catching the ball out of the backfield, but I can live with that.
My thoughts: Gordon hasn’t made the transition to the NFL as easily as some expected, so I’m a little surprised he went with the second pick. I’m not saying it is a bad choice because I’ve been on the Gordon bandwagon since the beginning saying the gap between him and Gurley is almost non-existent, it is just surprising. If you are looking for immediate production, I think Gordon is the easy choice as Gurley seems likely to be eased into the offense. I also think Gordon’s issues in the passing game have been exaggerated.
1.03 –Â DeVante Parker, WR MIA
Harrison’s thoughts: Running routes as refined as A.J. Green, scoring touchdowns on par with Dez Bryant, DeVante Parker is a prototypical wide receiver in a high powered offense. Despite being injured in his final season of college, he accounted for 57% of his team’s receiving yards. Not only that, he scored a touchdown per game. By drafting Parker, the Dolphins addressed a position that was by no means a weakness with a first round draft pick. He is being discounted due to his injury, but it’s the same procedure Julio Jones went under a year ago and he came back strong. The only problem for Parker might be that there are too many mouths to feed in the Dolphins’ offense. My only honest concern is Kenny Stills is actually a fine wide receiver and that’s the reason for Parker getting limited targets. He profiles as a potential elite receiver in reality and fantasy.
My thoughts: Parker is another player who has had a rough August. After dealing with foot issues in college, I figured another foot surgery would hurt his stock. Yet this is the highest we’ve seen Parker go in any of my mock drafts this year. Parker definitely fits the profile of the elite receiver with the size and ability of the players Harrison mentioned, but there are some questions about the transition. Missing the preseason as a rookie typically means a receiver is going to be a lot slower to come along. We might not see a ton from him this year, meaning his owners will need to be patient and those savvy owners who want him might be able to get him a little cheaper than normal by mid-season.
1.04 – Jameis Winston, QB TB
Chris’s thoughts: I know there are players with great value there. Winston is a complete quarterback – he has legs, but doesn’t use them unless he needs them. He has cannon for an arm. He also has one of the best receiving groups and a great tight end. I really can’t name anything I don’t like about Winston or the situation that he is in. With a first round pick (especially 1.04), I want to make the pick count and not go on a limb for a player or even take someone injured.
My thoughts: While Gordon and Parker going second and third were surprises given the past mock drafts and how August unfolded, seeing Winston go fourth almost made me fall out of my chair. Don’t get me wrong. I like Winston. I think he has the highest upside of any quarterback in the last three years, though that might not be saying a lot. I just don’t like the selection of him fourth overall with some of the other players who are still on the board. Winston might be a QB1 someday, but the value of a non-elite QB1 pales in comparison to the value of some of the other positions in traditional leagues.
1.05 –Â Todd Gurley, RB STL
Adam’s thoughts: Yes, that says 1.05. I was shocked to be able to get this level of talent at fifth overall. He is a transcendent talent and possibly the best running back to come out in the last two years. He crushed it at Georgia with his blend of speed and rushing power. While his ACL injury is definitely a concern, it’s not one that concerns me. It certainly isn’t a reason for him to fall this far. He has shades of Marshawn Lynch in his running style and visions of Le’Veon Bell with his catching prowess. He looks like he can do everything it takes to be an NFL running back from the get go and be able to produce for the Rams; who have been looking for a replacement franchise running back since Steven Jackson. He makes a strong case for first overall.
My thoughts: Typically you’re going to see Gurley go within the first two picks. As I mentioned earlier, I think Cooper is easily ahead of him and you could make an argument for Gordon as well, but Gurley falling to fifth was shocking. Even though I don’t by the transcendent talent or the best since Adrian Peterson hype, he is still an extremely talented prospect who should be a foundation for the Rams and fantasy teams alike for the next five years. Just be a little patient with him this year as he comes back from the ACL injury.
1.06 –Â Nelson Agholor, WR PHI
Izzy’s thoughts: I almost fainted at the thought that Gurley would fall to me at 1.06 and I would have immediately lobbied to somehow turn this into a real league. Still shocked he was passed over at 1.02. If you don’t want Gurley, draft him and trade him for the player you like and more. So now that the huge value pipedream is gone, I was left to decide between Nelson Agholor or Ameer Abdullah. I went Agholor since I typically draft rookies based off of who I expect to gain value throughout the season in order to give me the option to keep or trade. He gave me the best shot at that since he’s got a clear path to starting in a high-volume offense.
My thoughts: Agholor has been the default selection at the sixth spot in an awful lot of rookie drafts. Of course most of those have Kevin White going somewhere in the first five picks in place of Winston, but we will get into that in a moment. As far as Agholor goes, I think he is the best receiver to come out of USC in quite some time. I don’t think we will ever be elite, but he could be a very solid WR2 for years to come. The only question I have is if the Chip Kelly offense will allow him to be consistent or if the ball will be spread around a lot.
1.07 –Â Kevin White, WR CHI
Eric O’s thoughts: Before the injury happened he was being selected as the second receiver off the board behind only Amari Cooper. Him falling to seven behind the also banged up DeVante Parker and Nelson Agholor is a steal in my opinion. Once healthy, he’ll have a very defined role in this offense across from Alshon Jeffery.
My thoughts: I mentioned White previously and I completely agree with Eric. White falling to seventh in this mock when he was a fixture in the top four picks a month ago (even going first overall in a few leagues), is basing too much of your decision on what has happened in training camp. If you felt White was worth a top four pick this summer, I think you need to keep him there even as he deals with an injury. He might not do much in 2015, but White has always been about the long-term upside. Don’t let a shin issue change your view on him.
1.08 –Â Ameer Abdullah, RB DET
Matt P’s thoughts: I was thrilled when my second favorite running back and third favorite player in the entire draft class fell to me at 1.07. Abdullah produced the best SPARQ score of all the running backs in the 2015 draft. He possesses elite lateral agility and short area quickness. He had a disappointing 40 time (4.60) which indicates a deficiency in long speed, but in my opinion, 40 time is the most overrated combine stat for a running back. He looks much faster than that on the field. One of the biggest knocks on Abdullah coming out was his issue with ball security, but that has been a bit overblown. His fumbling numbers decreased in three consecutive seasons at Nebraska and should continue to improve in that aspect of his game with NFL coaching. Joique Bell’s health is still in question for week one and there is a good chance that Abdullah could immediately see a starter’s number of touches. With that kind of opportunity and talent it wouldn’t be a surprise to see the rookie take the lead role and never look back.
My thoughts: Throughout the draft process, I’ve been a little bit lower than most on Abdullah. It had nothing to do with the talent, because I think he is a very gifted athlete and seems to be a very hard worker. It had everything to do with what I see his future role as being. I think he lacks the size to be anything more than the slightly majority in a committee. I know Matt said the fumbles don’t concern him, but I’m still a little worried. Yes, his ball security did get better, but when it started at one fumble every seven carries as a freshman, it is hard to get worse! In all fairness, his one fumble ever 66 carries last year isn’t terrible, but it is more than NFL coaches want to see. Long term, I see him in a 70/30 split with fellow rookie Zach Zenner.
1.09 –Â Marcus Mariota, QB TEN
Mo’s thoughts: Leading up to the NFL Draft, we knew Marcus Mariota was a winner. We knew he took great care of the football and was dangerous with his feet. Once training camp began, we found out he had zero issues playing under center, his accuracy was still top notch and he has no problem commanding the huddle or leading men despite his soft spoken demeanor. I didn’t hesitate to take Mariota in my own Dynasty league with pick 1.04, and didn’t hesitate here either. He could very well be the next Russell Wilson, a savvy decision maker who does all the right things and scores fantasy points with efficient passing, while gobbling up chunks of yardage with his feet. Quarterback is settled for a decade plus.
My thoughts: With the exception of truly elite talent like Andrew Luck, I’m not a fan of using a first round rookie pick on a quarterback. I think there is more value at other positions. I’m much more likely to try trading my second round or later pick for an aging veteran like Tom Brady or someone like Eli Manning to fill a void at the position because it is typically a better value and better production than a young quarterback. I’m not saying Mariota is a bad pick because I think this is about the right time to consider it. I’m just saying it isn’t my style. I love the character and leadership he brings to the table, but I question the eventual upside. I’m not sure he’ll ever be a top seven quarterback.
1.10 –Â TJ Yeldon, RB JAC
Austan’s thoughts: I was pretty surprised to see Mariota and Winston both off the board. In a standard, 12-team, one-quarterback league, where just 12 signal callers start each week, I have zero interest in drafting either of them in the first. The two quarterbacks going early played a part in Yeldon and Abdullah falling to the late first. I’ll gladly take Yeldon, who is currently the sixth rookie off the board in August mock startups. I don’t think he’s a special talent, but I like his opportunity for volume and his solid all-around skillset.
My thoughts: I agree with Austan on several fronts. I, too, fail to see anything special when I watch Yeldon. He has good feet for his size, and he landed in a situation where he should be able to be the primary ball carrier from week one on. Unfortunately for him, he hasn’t staked a claim on that role in the pre-season. He has also looked very average for the Jags. He might just be a middle level RB2 for a few years before being replaced by someone cheaper when his contract comes due. The situation easily keeps him in the first round though, as does the potential of him showing better in the season.
1.11 –Â Dorial Green-Beckham, WR TEN
Ryan F’s thoughts: This pick is right on the edge of a significant talent drop-off for me. As a matter of fact, in some drafts this might represent the start of the third tier of talent. DGB here is a great pick as he has true WR1 upside – and I could see him as a top five wide receiver if he can avoid those well-known red flags. There are three wide receivers I watched on tape this off-season who really impressed me – Amari Cooper, Kevin White, and DGB – and if it weren’t for those red flags, he might be a top three or four pick.
My thoughts: One of the true wildcards of this year’s draft, Green-Beckham could be a WR1 for a decade or he could never see the field as a starter. Personally, I think both extremes are very unlikely, but they could realistically happen. When I look at him, I see someone who isn’t quite as athletically gifted as the hype would have you believe but is still good enough to be the top target on an NFL team. That is if he can get his head on straight (and that is a big if with some of the things in his past). He’s worth a flier in the last first round, though. If I pick him up and he does start to show top level talent, I’m selling him. As we have seen from Justin Blackmon and Josh Gordon, issues in the past don’t always stay in the past.
1.12 –Â Tevin Coleman, RB ATL
My thoughts: If you’ve been keeping up on the rookie mocks over the last nine months, it shouldn’t be a surprise I went with Coleman when my pick came up. I’ve been in his corner since the beginning, though I did give strong consideration to Breshad Perriman and Phillip Dorsett. Ultimately, I went with Coleman because I think there is less risk compared to Perriman and a more immediate path to relevance than Dorsett.
When I look at running backs as potential selections in the first round of a rookie draft, I’m looking for a rusher who has something which makes me say “Wow.” With Coleman, he has the home run ability which definitely makes him stand out. Not only that, but the fact he was really the only weapon the Hoosiers had last year and he still did what he did really impressed me. When I say only, I mean it. He had more rushing yards than his team had passing yards! There are some concerns about durability and his hamstring issue in training camp hasn’t helped those concerns, but I think his talent will win out in the end. He should be at the very least the majority part of a committee by mid-season and quite possibly the full time starter for next year. Well worth it with the last pick in the first.
That concludes our look at the first round. We will be back with the later rounds very soon!
[/am4show]
- Final 2021 Pre-Draft Rookie Mock: Round Three - April 28, 2021
- Final 2021 Pre-Draft Rookie Mock: Round Two - April 26, 2021
- Final 2021 Pre-Draft Rookie Mock: Round One - April 25, 2021
