All In, All Out

Jeff Haverlack Posted On August 18, 2015

We’re all suckers for draft season! Who hasn’t taken the plunge on just one more league solely because of the excitement of the draft? I know each year I’m guilty of this.

There’s a lot of information to digest. ADP, Risers and Fallers, Rankings, Training Camp Reports, Injury News and countless other fantasy pieces all helping the drafting coach to, in most cases, at least loosely rank players ahead of his or her big event. Here at DLF, we consider that our specialty, especially during the off-season (if there is such a thing). But sometimes in the sea of strategic planning articles, I find it nice to have a simple piece from a trusted source in which the author explains, in no uncertain terms, just which players they can’t live without or others that they are claiming abstinence from.

I never like to use the word “expert” and avoid it whenever possible. You don’t have to run a fantasy site to be an expert; Words on a page don’t vault the author into some otherworldly expert realm. But at the very least, hopefully you’ve come to trust DLF as a source of committed and die-hard fantasy fans, coaches and writers who have useful information to share. Combined with thousands of members and forum users, we feel that combination makes DLF THE place to call home for all your fantasy football needs. And we certainly appreciate your support in whatever way it’s offered.

If you have drafts to take place in the few weeks remaining before kickoff of the 2015 season, it is for you that I offer this list. It’s a collection of players to whom I’ve affixed the label “All In” or “All Out” to. These labels don’t necessarily mean that I don’t own the player currently in any league but, instead, are a state of mind relating to current valuation and my willingness or ability to draft (or not) them given their typical value. I don’t want to get into ADP specifics as team build, your fellow coaches and my own subjectivity are all at play here making this a rather random exercise. Instead, I’m merely offering my view on these players for consideration as you find yourself on the clock with these names still on the board.

It is my hope that you can use this information to help shape your team in whatever format you may be playing. Let’s jump right in:

All In

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Doug Martin, RB TB

Those of you that follow me may have now fallen from your chair. I know, I know – I’ve been “all out” on Martin since he entered the league when most fantasy coaches were comparing him to Ray Rice. I wanted nothing to do with him at his early-career valuation. From hours of tape review, I never felt great about his competition, size, build or skill-set into the NFL. Even until the beginning of last year, I received flack from well known experts for warning others to stay away. This year, as his damaged hull lay burning and listing badly off the coast of Tampa Bay, his value finally came home to roost and my curiosity was captured. Numerous insider reports and articles led me to believe that if the combination of his health and contract-year-status remained, there may be value to be extruded. As he has was ignored in both dynasty and redraft drafts in 2015, I found myself selecting him in or near round nine, give or take a round. My reason is due to the fact that his opportunity is still clear and while I don’t feel that he is a lock to be a top 15 running back, the opportunity presented to him is certainly worthy of a selection near that round. Just because I’ve been all-out on him in the past doesn’t preclude me from selecting him when the value is right. Sure, Charles Sims looks to be the third down back and Martin hasn’t looked anything akin to his rookie status, but give me a player who no one else wants and I’ll take the upside when the price is right.

T.J. Yeldon, RB JAX

I may burn for this one as I hate to go all in on rookie running backs. Sometimes, however, you have to trust your gut and be bold with your drafts and player evaluation. Before the NFL rookie draft occurred, my early rankings had Yeldon appearing in my top five overall rookies. In fact, he was my RB3 after Todd Gurley and Melvin Gordon. Every time I watched tape, I saw his NFL body and phone booth quickness, combined with his elite vision. He gets to the line quickly enough, has great size with that aforementioned short area quickness with trash at his feet which is so rare for a back of his size. Forgivable is his lack of long speed but he’s no slouch in this area either. He’s got every-down-back written all over him in a system that badly needs one. I’m not wild about his poor final year production but what I see are tangible NFL qualities that can’t be dismissed. I took heat for my high ranking of him prior to the draft but to say that he’s now a top seven rookie selection isn’t a stretch. Truth be told, I have no problem with him being selected as a top five rookie overall. Don’t listen to the critics about the Jacksonville offense and how he’ll be held back. The development of quarterback Blake Bortles when combined with the young weapons around him should be enough to provide plenty of long term upside for Yeldon.

Marvin Jones, WR CIN

Last year’s injury was a real blow to my confidence in Jones. I may be the writer in the fantasy ethos with the highest value on Jones. I will throw in the caveat, though, that he must stay healthy this year or suffer removal from my list – an event which makes even the most elite of NFL players shudder in their cleats. Jones has the size and weight combination that I love to see in outside receivers, tall, lean and flexible in the air. His size when combined with A.J. Green across from him and Andy Dalton at quarterback provides a lot of upside. I’m not a fan of Dalton as a quarterback but he’s shown a willingness to look deep and in the red zone for alternate targets not named A.J. Green. To wit, Jones’ 2013 touchdown total of ten shows what is possible and that was with Jones serving as no better than the WR3 in the Bengal offense. If Jones remains healthy, I believe he can challenge Green in touchdowns while still catching 65 balls. That equates to over 900 yards and double digit touchdowns. A stretch? Perhaps. Possible, yes. Worth a late round flier on a current WR66 ranking? Absolutely. If I’m wrong, you’ve lost nothing. If I’m correct, you have a high-upside WR3 for insane value.

Victor Cruz, WR NYG

It was heartbreaking watching Cruz sob with the realization that his campaign was over and, potentially, his career with it. Returning from a pateller tendon is no easy feat, nor is it guaranteed. Cruz is ultra-gifted as a receiver and has now declared himself 100% healthy. The timetable for his injury is right for his return as well. Cruz is consistently dropping to round nine in drafts but is on the rise. Given that value and the emergence of Odell Beckham Jr., Cruz’s slot role and ability should pile up the receptions. I have no problem calling his name well ahead of round nine. You’ll get a high-upside, high-character, workaholic receiver that you can plug in as a WR3 every week. For that value, he’s a slam dunk.

Montee Ball, RB DEN

As you’ve probably noticed, many of my all in candidates are players well down in value. While this could occur for any number of reasons, ultimately what I’m looking for are high-talent individuals that have fallen for what I consider to be the wrong reasons. One could argue that these players have little value because of all the right reasons – isn’t that what makes rankings and fantasy football so much fun?!? All five of these players have displayed immense talent at some level and have shown me enough that they can again given the opportunity. Montee Ball is another such player. I don’t buy the Wisconsin argument as it relates to running backs. I will admit that recently it would seem to suggest that Badger Backs don’t have a great track history. Ultimately, the only thing I care about is their individual make-up as a runner and how that can equate to NFL success. You’ll also notice that all of my players are of extreme high character. These are players that I know I can take to battle and won’t sabotage themselves while fighting for a job. Sometimes situations may not favor their skill set or opportunity and it is precisely that which I’m looking for.

Ball has the size, feet and nose for the end-zone that I believe will reward fantasy owners in the future. I fully expect that Denver will eventually trade one of Ronnie Hillman or Ball which could provide Ball with his next opportunity, be it due to injury to C.J. Anderson or as a new runner for a team in need. He’s still young (24) and has the work ethic with a skill-set to match to be productive. As the RB40 in our current rankings, it’s easy to be all-in on this high-upside player.

All Out

Ryan Tannehill, QB MIA

I want nothing to do with him, he scares me to death. Yes, I understand he was the QB9 in 2014 and that he’s only 27 years old. I still don’t trust him. I don’t see the tangibles in his play that make me believe he’s anything more than a QB2 with upside and all I see is a stronger armed Andy Dalton. There’s nothing wrong with that as he’ll be available in later rounds and has just that – upside. He had a career best 2014 but Mike Wallace had ten touchdowns and I don’t think he’ll be replaced by Kenny Stills. DeVante Parker is a nice looking receiver but has been injury prone and he’s a rookie. Jarvis Landry is a prototypical possession receiver while ex-safety valve, Charles Clay has departed. Tight end Jordan Cameron should bring more athleticism to the position if he can stay healthy but I just feel there are too many question marks for me to have ANY excitement about Tannehill. Flame on as I know he’s got a big following right now. I invite you to all throw it back in my face if I’m wrong, I can take it.

Arian Foster, RB HOU

I had started this piece long ago, before Foster’s injury. It may seen questionable for me to leave his name in here but I’m doing just that. I had Foster last year in a couple of leagues, mainly annual redraft contests but I never felt good about it. Between his advancing age and lower body injuries, he’s just not a back you can trust to any degree. And just when you thought it was okay to reenter the water, that nagging groin gives way. Sure he may be back for the second half of the season, but I’m all out on advancing aged running backs with a history of injury issues and multiple risk flags. I’ll let some other coach take that risk.

Cleveland Browns

As in, all of them. I might consider holding out Duke Johnson but even then, I’m likely not willing to pay the average price, often times late in the first round of rookie drafts. Josh Gordon is intriguing in a “I couldn’t make a good choice if it was my only choice” sort of way. Miles Austin, Dwayne Bowe, Terrance West, Isaiah Crowell, tight ends that need to learn to catch and diminutive slot receivers with shifty speed aside, I’m happy to steer very wide and very clear of any player on the Browns. Yes, I avoided even mentioning Johnny Football and that circus. Why take risks when you don’t have to. I think the player I’m most excited about is one that gets zero pub as is, Vince Mayle. And even then, it’s not as if I feel any compulsion to own him either. Pass, pass and pass.

Nelson Agholor, WR PHI

This one comes with a couple of qualifications. It’s very possible I’m wrong and it’s very possible that he’d fall far enough in rookie or inaugural drafts such that I’d select him. It’s important for any coach to understand that while we all have impression on players, you MUST stay humble and realize that we aren’t official scouts in the NFL, don’t coach an actual NFL team and while we may feel that we’re smarter than most front office personnel, that we’re largely delusional. All of that understood, I’m not taking Agholor unless he falls to the very bottom of the first round of rookie drafts or the top of the second round, which means, I don’t own Agholor in any leagues. It is a plus that he’s in Chip Kelly’s quick release system but that doesn’t ordain a level of productivity. In fact, if anything, it casts further shadow across all players in that system.

The issue here is that I had both Robert Woods and Marqise Lee ranked ahead of Agholor in talent and neither of them in their respective systems have gone on to any level of fantasy prominence, each for their own reasons. But until I see Agholor produce, I feel no need to overdraft, in my mind anyway, beyond what I’m comfortable with. Many seem to be overjoyed with his first preseason game in which he scored his first touchdown. If not for a terrible play by the cornerback, that pass is dropped for a loss to go along with two poor drops in the game. That’s not to say he doesn’t have talent as he did accelerate and separate quickly with the ball in his hands and early career drops are nothing to be overly concerned about, I’m just not of a mindset to draft him any earlier than his current ranking.

DeMarco Murray, RB PHI

It’s not a sour grapes listing, I swear. I say this because I’ve called Murray a paper tiger in the past and I have been correct until last year – and we all know what he did last year. He actually stayed healthy and posted a fantastic stat line with 1,845 yards rushing and 13 touchdowns on the ground. Great by any measuring stick. So why did Dallas allow him to walk? Because they know that running backs are far more a product of the system than they are talented unto themselves. Murray, for his part, is a gifted runner when healthy, but I’ll not own him in a single league as I’m not of the mindset that he’s going to produce to any similar degree in Chip Kelly’s system. LeSean McCoy didn’t produce well. Kelly has already said that multiple backs will share the load and they retained both Ryan Matthews and Darren Sproles. Find how many other backs 27 years and older having more than 350 carries follow up a fantastic year with another fantastic year. VERY few and far between. No thank you, someone else can overdraft him. I will not be surprised at all if Murray tallies only 1,100 yards and eight touchdowns on the ground. Still good numbers but not nearly what his current ranking would suggest he should produce.

CJ Spiller, RB NO

Nope, nope and nope – I’m taking the nope train to nope-ville as my daughter says. I’ve NEVER owned Spiller in any league and have defended that position annually as upset owners pound their fists at how I’m unfairly using his past against him and missing big upside. If I had a dime for every time I rostered players with potential that never produced. It boggles my mind how often coaches hitch their wagons to shooting stars when nothing in the players past suggests that their wishes should come true. Spiller is an injury-prone mediocre big-play runner that will now need to produce more of with less touches than he was able to accomplish with more touches in Buffalo. True that New Orleans is no Buffalo offensively speaking and that, alone, should provide more upside for Spiller. But having to share the load with Mark Ingram and Khiry Robinson means he’s not on my roster, even in the Darren Sproles role. Somehow he’s the RB23 in our rankings, even as high as the RB17. Madness. Stay away from him, far, far away … and thank me later.

One of my tenets is to never use ‘absolute’ terms when dealing with fantasy predictions, unless of course you want to play the fool quicker than would otherwise be the case. It’s a fools folly to take hard-stances but to do so is to also display passion and conviction in one’s beliefs. I hope you’ve enjoyed this walk through my mind on some of this year’s do’s and dont’s. Feel free to give me your list or your thoughts about my list. And as always, best of luck in your draft(s).

Follow me on Twitter: @DLF_Jeff

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Jeff Haverlack

Co-Founder at Dynasty League Football

Appreciative husband and proud father who poorly attempts to balance family life with his passion for creating the largest, most helpful and most impactful fantasy community on the planet! DLF was created for the community and we're committed to each member within it! Hope anyone playing this great game will call DLF home in some way!

You can find Jeff on Twitter at @dlf_jeff

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