Instant Analysis: Colts Ink Hilton

Jacob Feldman Posted On August 14, 2015

Hilton went over 80 receptions and 1,000 yards receiving during his second year in the league. He then followed it up by posting 82 receptions for 1345 yards and seven touchdowns during his third year in the league. He has definitely made himself a fantasy fixture. However, every time you tried to talk about exactly where he deserves to be in the rankings this fog would suddenly role in and everything became really hazy. Yes, he seemed to be a great but maybe not elite talent, but how much of that was based on Andrew Luck throwing him the ball? Would he still be a back end WR1 if he ended up on some other team after his contract expired this year?

The drafting of a near physical clone in Phillip Dorsett signaled the end of Hilton’s time in Indy for some people. Indy clearly has other plans as they made their intentions clear by signing Hilton to a five year extension for 65 million dollars. This ensures Hilton will remain in Indianapolis through his prime and be a top target for Luck. Let’s take a look at how it impacts Hilton and the rest of the Colts.

TY Hilton, WR

For me, this solidifies Hilton just inside the top ten receivers. While he might not have an elite ceiling due to his lack of production in the red zone, which Luck throwing him the ball for the next six seasons he’s going to be highly productive. I would expect him to be a fixture in the 75+ receptions and 1200+ yards club. The touchdowns might be a little inconsistent due to his role, but I’m expecting 5-8 per season, locking Hilton in as a very solid back end WR1 each and every year.

Andrew Luck, QB

Locking up Hilton for the next several years ensures Luck is going to have a go to receiver as he continues to develop into the best quarterback in the league. Having Hilton in the fold will give the Colts and Luck a little more security as they cycle through over the hill veterans and unproven rookies in the rest of the receiving corps. Of course Hilton’s contract might make the contract negotiations for Luck and other young stars a little more interesting. Of course we all know Luck is going to get paid.

Andre Johnson, WR

[inlinead]This really doesn’t change anything for Johnson. He’s always been a short term player for the Colts. They signed him to a three year contract, but I think he’ll play two of those years at the most. He’ll play the red zone role for the offense and help mentor the young receivers, including Hilton, to make them better at what they do. He’s a solid short term play for contending teams, assuming he can stay healthy.

Phillip Dorsett, WR

The extension for Hilton muddies the water for Dorsett quite a bit. Clearly the team seems comfortable having Dorsett and Hilton on the field at the same time as starters somewhere down the road. After all, you don’t spend a first round pick on someone you view as a situational player. Dorsett has been impressive according to camp reports and could potentially see the field in some three wide receiver sets this year. I think he’s more likely to be to be the fourth wide receiver as a rookie but see some time as the third receiver in certain situations.

Long term, Dorsett could transition into the wingman for Hilton. Of course Dorsett is just a rookie, so it is far from certain, but he has the talent to be half of a 1,000 yard duo for the Colts in a few years. The re-signing of Hilton really doesn’t change my long range view or ranking for Dorsett at all. It just might delay how long it takes before he is starting in two wide receiver sets, and how long before he reaches his full potential. He won’t be doing it next year anymore since both Hilton and Johnson are going to be around in 2016, unless Johnson is released.

Donte Moncrief, WR

The current number three receiver for the Colts after being drafted in the third round of the 2014 draft, Moncrief offers something Hilton and Dorsett are definitely lacking… size. While things have been fairly quiet coming out of camp in regards to Moncrief, local reporters have said he has improved and should get the majority of the snaps in three receiver sets this year. This can of course change over the next month, but I think his experience and size will keep him on the field.

In future years, I think the Colts are looking at a base set of three wide receivers. In that setup, Moncrief would be the “big” wide receiver to complement the 5’9” Hilton and the 5’10” Dorsett. This means his red zone targets and touchdown potential might be the highest of the group, but I would expect him to be third on the pecking order in terms of receptions and yards. Even though he was drafted later, Moncrief could always beat out Dorsett in the future and be the second target instead of the third. If it is the latter keep in mind Luck’s third target is going to be fantasy relevant. Luck’s third receiver could still post 50+ receptions for 800+ yards and 5+ touchdowns. If it is Moncrief in that role, it could be eight-plus touchdowns thanks to his added size over the others.

Duron Cater, Griff Whalen & Vincent Brown, WRs

The extension for Hilton does dump a lot of cold water on the future fantasy prospects of this group. Instead of the 2015 starters (Hilton and Johnson) both leaving in the next few years, the number of open starting spots has been cut in half. With more talented players like Moncrief and Dorsett already battling for roles, this group has very little if any chance of producing. If you’re holding out hope for any of them, you better how they find their way to a new team. There isn’t much of a future for any of them in Indy.

Dwayne Allen & Coby Fleener, TE

The real impact of this deal in my eyes is for the tight end position. With recent investments in Hilton, Moncrief and Dorsett in addition to the short term signing of Johnson, it is very clear the Colts are going to be featuring the wide receiver position. The Colts will likely be running a base set of three wide receivers for the next few years and probably won’t hesitate to go four receivers quite a bit. This means the two tight end sets will be a thing of the past. Allen is the more talented of the two, but has struggled with injury. Fleener also has the history with Luck. For fantasy purposes, owners need to hope one of them takes the top role and runs with it, making the other one fairly worthless. Otherwise they will both cancel each other out and both be inconsistent back end TE2s.

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Jacob Feldman

Honorary Contributor at Dynasty League Football

Jacob is a high school math teacher by day and a father at night. This doesn't leave too much time for sane thought, so occasionally words like "icky" will slip into his writing. It is all a part of the fun!