2015 Dynasty Fantasy Football Rookie Mock Draft
NFL Christmas has come and gone. All 32 NFL teams have some shiny new toys to play with and all of us are sitting there looking at them, trying to figure out what they can and can’t do with those new treasures. Of course, just like real gifts, these players aren’t all equal. Some of them were broken during shipping, some of them will be broken by their teams, a few will be played with for a brief period before they are forgotten and just a lucky few will be those toys we remember forever.
Of course, the tricky part is sifting through all of the information, which now includes which team they are playing for, and figuring out which of the categories each player fits into. For a lot of you, your time is extremely limited. Your rookie drafts probably start sometime in the next few hours or few days. A few of you have probably already started. In order to help you out, myself and 11 other DLF writers got together on Saturday afternoon and conducted a three round rookie mock. If you follow me on twitter and were paying attention Saturday afternoon, you saw the results live, as they happened. In case you didn’t, here they are.
Before we get there, just a quick reminder on my mock draft rules:
1) PPR scoring with traditional lineup requirements (Only one quarterback, not tight end premium, etc)
2) No trading of draft picks is allowed
3) Ignore any kind of team need. So someone could draft multiple quarterbacks if they felt it was the right value.
Other than that, it is pretty standard. Three rounds, pick who you think should go at each pick. Here is how the picks went.
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Round One
1.01 – Todd Gurley, RB STL
1.02 – Amari Cooper, WR OAK
1.03 – Melvin Gordon, RB SD
1.04 – Kevin White, WR CHI
1.05 – Nelson Agholor, WR PHI
1.06 – DeVante Parker, WR MIA
1.07 – Dorial Green-Beckham, WR TEN
1.08 – Breshad Perriman, WR BAL
1.09 – Ameer Abdullah, RB DET
1.10 – Tevin Coleman, RB ATL
1.11 – Devin Funchess, WR CAR
1.12 – TJ Yeldon, RB JAX
I think the first four picks of the rookie draft are pretty much locked in after the NFL Draft. The order will, of course, be dependent on a lot of different things, but I would question anyone who thinks someone else should be going in the top four. The only exception might be in two quarterback leagues, but even then I think the quarterbacks go at 1.05 and 1.06, not the top four. After the fourth pick, things open up a little bit. I would expect Parker to go at number five in a lot of leagues, but as you can see it is far from unanimous. I can see arguments for Agholor, Parker and pretty much any of the other players who went in the first round. The order from the fifth pick on is going to be based largely on personal preference and team need right now.
With that said, there are a few players who shot up the board in this rookie mock. Agholor used to be a late first or even a second round pick, but I think he’s going to go middle first from now on. I also expect Perriman, Abdullah, Coleman, and Yeldon to be fixtures in the first round in addition to Agholor and Parker.
If you’re paying attention, you notice I left two players out of my list – I don’t think Funchess is a first round pick. I felt that before the draft and his landing spot doesn’t change that for me. He’s more of n middle second round prospect in my book. As for Dorial Green-Beckham, he’s one of a few wild cards in this draft. I can envision him going anywhere from 1.05 to 2.05 in rookie drafts. With the major red flag (both on and off the field) as well as the upside he possesses, he’s going to go all over the board.
Round Two
2.01 – Phillip Dorsett, WR IND
2.02 – Jameis Winston, QB TB
2.03 – Duke Johnson, RB CLE
2.04 – Jaelen Strong, WR HOU
2.05 – Jay Ajayi, RB MIA
2.06 – David Johnson, RB ARI
2.07 – Devin Smith, WR NYJ
2.08 – David Cobb, RB TEN
2.09 – Maxx Williams, TE BAL
2.10 – Jeremy Langford, RB CHI
2.11 – Marcus Mariota, QB TEN
2.12 – Tyler Lockett, WR SEA
At first glance, you probably recognize a few players who were former first round picks. Players such as Duke Johnson, Strong and Ajayi have been fixtures in the first round in pretty much every mock since the beginning. Between poor landing spots and sliding in the NFL Draft, I would expect all three of them to end up in the second more often than not. Ajayi is the true wildcard, though. Considering he was the 1.06 (give or take a pick) a few days ago, there are some who are going to take him in the first. Others will be scared off by the knee issue and he could slide to the middle second or lower.
The big risers in this group are Dorsett, David Johnson, Langford and Lockett. Dorsett was a fixture in the late second or early third prior to the draft, but being drafted in the first round to the Colts is going to vault his stock significantly. I would expect Dorsett to be a late first or early second in most drafts now. Of course the major question is what role he will play with the Colts, so he might be overdrafted. Johnson in the middle second is where I expect him to go and it will either be one of the best picks of your rookie draft or one of the worst. It will all come down to how the camp battle with Andre Ellington goes. Langford was already going in the middle third, so the late second isn’t too much of a jump up. Long term, Chicago could be great. Matt Forte is nearing the end and Ka’Deem Carey didn’t show anything special last year. Could he be the heir? Lockett is going to be a player to watch. I think he was drafted as a return specialist, but if he is used as a receiver he could be electric.
The rest of the second round picks were quite often found in the second round prior to the draft, so not much has changed for them. I was a little surprised Winston went at 2.02 while Mariota was 2.11 and Williams slid all the way to 2.09, but they are both well within the realm of possibilities. A few of these players could drop into the third as I don’t think there are many firmly established tiers. I think the running backs drafted in this round could be the biggest steals if they end up winning camp battles.
Round Three
3.01 – Sammie Coates, WR PIT
3.02 – DeAndre Smelter, WR SF
3.03 – Justin Hardy, WR ATL
3.04 – Stefon Diggs, WR MIN
3.05 – Chris Conley, WR KC
3.06 – Javorius “Buck” Allen, RB BAL
3.07 – Mike Davis, RB SF
3.08 – Rashad Greene, WR JAX
3.09 – Karlos Williams, RB BUF
3.10 – Kenny Bell, WR TB
3.11 – Tre McBride, WR TEN
3.12 – Clive Walford, TE OAK
For the most part, the players in the third round have been in and out of the third round in a lot of our mock drafts. The only real shocker of this round for me was Coates falling all the way to the third. He was often a late first or early second in prior mocks. While his situation isn’t terrible, I think people are just finding better options with less risk, as well as less upside in some cases.
Of the players drafted here, I don’t see much upside with a few of them. I think Diggs lacks the heart and desire to make the most of his talents and I don’t see a lot of veterans in Minnesota to help him get on track. Williams is likely to be a backup at best. McBride is going to be buried on the depth chart and Walford is likely to be a backup as well.
The rest of the receivers drafted here I really like for various reasons as fliers. Smelter has a lot of question marks with injury and just being raw, but he has the highest upside of anyone other than Conley. Speaking of Conley, he’s going to be a touch limited by his quarterback for the short term, but I expect the Chiefs to upgrade on Alex Smith fairly soon and Conley could be ready to explode by then. Greene’s ceiling is a little bit limited by situation and skill set, but I wouldn’t be surprised to see him as the second wide receiver in Jacksonville. With Hardy and Bell I see similar situations. Both will be the third wide receiver on their team with a young stud and an aging vet in front of them. They won’t beat out the players in front of them, but once the aging vets move on, they should have a prime opportunity.
As for Davis and Allen, I wouldn’t be surprised to see either of them in the second round in a lot of rookie drafts. Allen will likely be overdrafted in some leagues based on his situation. I know there are some who love him, but I don’t see anything special. He’s a great backup but would be a low end starter. With Davis, I think he’s also likely to play a backup role, though Carlos Hyde is also unproven. It might all depend on which Mike Davis shows up.
In addition to only two quarterbacks and two tight ends being drafted, here are a few other players drafted in the NFL Draft who didn’t make out cut in this mock but likely would have been early fourth round picks:
Matt Jones, RB WAS
Cameron Artis-Payne, RB CAR
Ty Montgomery, WR GB
Vince Mayle, WR CLE
I would also expect for there to be a few undrafted free agents who will pop up in the fourth and maybe sneak into the third, so keep your eye on them.
That’s it for our instant look at this mock draft. There will be a lot more coverage of the NFL draft and what to expect in your rookie drafts over the next few weeks and months. Good luck to those drafting soon!
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- Final 2021 Pre-Draft Rookie Mock: Round Three - April 28, 2021
- Final 2021 Pre-Draft Rookie Mock: Round Two - April 26, 2021
- Final 2021 Pre-Draft Rookie Mock: Round One - April 25, 2021
