NFL Draft Day Two IDP Winners and Losers

 

With the first two days in the books, there’s already quite a bit to consider across the IDP landscape. We now have some clarity on some rookie position designations, while other players are experiencing a reduction in value.

Here are some initial winners/losers after day two of the NFL Draft:

Winners

Landon Collins, SS Giants

Collins walks into an ideal situation as the Giants’ starting strong safety. He’ll replace Antrel Rolle and immediately play three downs. He’s underrated in coverage and a prototypical ‘in-the-box’ safety (i.e., a perfect IDP prospect). He should be among the top five to seven rookie IDPs drafted. The other beautiful thing is he’ll play with a chip on his shoulder after not being selected in the first. He’s publicly stated he’s less than thrilled he ‘slipped’ to the second round.

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Mario Edwards, DE Raiders

Edwards is a high ceiling player with little obstacles for snaps as Justin Tuck is the Raiders’ lone option on the edge. The concern is his untapped potential. He didn’t meet expectations at Florida State as a top recruit, which does raise some flags. It’s now up to the Raiders to bring the best out of Edwards. If it happens, he’ll have legitimate top IDP value.

Randy Gregory, DE Cowboys

The questions surrounding his consistency and a failed drug test led to a drop to the second round. However, Gregory landed in a solid spot despite the presence of Demarcus Lawrence and Greg Hardy. He could have been drafted to a 3-4 base defense as an outside linebacker, but as a defensive end, he could be a blue chip IDP player given his sack potential. This is a player with top 10 NFL Draft talent. If Gregory keeps his focus and stays clean, he’ll be a sought after IDP commodity. For me, his spotty consistency will keep him out of my top five rookie IDPs.

Paul Dawson, MLB Bengals

Rey Maualuga is the definition of average. While Marvin Lewis is a Maualuga fan, this is an ideal landing spot for Dawson. If his college production carries over to the NFL, he’ll be a steal for the Bengals. While he didn’t measure up at the Combine, he’s a dynamite all-around linebacker who excels on tape. Despite the measurable concerns, he’ll likely be in the top five of my IDP rookie rankings given his college production and natural instincts.

Nigel Bradham, ILB Bills

As mentioned in the recent scheme change article, many believe the driving factor to the Kiko Alonso deal was Bradham’s perfect fit in Rex Ryan’s scheme. It’s a positive sign for Bradham with no competition added at linebacker through three rounds. We’ll need to continue to monitor if another body is added in the fourth, but things are looking promising for Bradham in 2015.

Sam Barrington, ILB Packers

Much like Bradham, the fact the Packers are focusing on their secondary and not adding bodies at inside linebacker is encouraging for Barrington’s long-term IDP value. He’s flying under the radar across the IDP community, but if the Packers don’t add an inside linebacker early in day three, it’ll be glowing support for Barrington.

Losers

Audie Cole & Eric Kendricks, LB Vikings

The addition of Eric Kendricks kills the value of Cole. Kendricks should easily win the starting middle linebacker competition and while that sounds great for Kendricks, both Chad Greenway and Anthony Barr appear to have the subpackage roles. While Greenway struggled in 2014, he took a pay cut and should be back in 2015 in his final year as a Viking. So, while Kendricks should start, it may be a year or so before he plays every down and hits LB1/LB2 value.

Chargers ILBs

Listen to GM Tom Telesco’s post-draft interview and you’ll hear him rave about Denzel Perryman’s tackling ability. Often viewed as a two-down thumper, it’s also interesting to note Telesco pointed to Perryman’s coverage ability and the potential for him to play a third down role.

Regardless of the role, the addition of Perryman creates a log-jam at inside linebacker with Donald Butler and Manti Te’o already on the depth chart. The knee jerk reaction is Perryman will start for Te’o. After reassessing 2014 and the effectiveness of Butler and Te’o, it’s clear Butler struggled. While I still believe Perryman will start alongside Butler and come off the field on third downs in favor of Te’o, this is something to watch closely going forward.

If I choose one in this group, it’s Perryman and mainly because he’s Mike Nolan and John Pagano’s guy. After three rounds, he’s currently in my second tier of rookie linebackers due to the 2015 log-jam.

Owamagbe Odighizuwa, DE Giants

The 4-3 scheme and defensive end designation is favorable, but there are a lot of bodies on the Giants’ defensive line right now. You’ll need patience with Diggy as 2015 already looks to be a red shirt season. Jason Pierre-Paul was franchised and is an entrenched starter, Robert Ayers is situated to start opposite Pierre-Paul and the Giants are banking on the development of Damontre Moore. On it’s face, this roster construction appears unappealing for Diggy. However, the Giants appear to be planning ahead. Pierre-Paul is likely to be elsewhere in 2016 after the recent franchise tag and Ayers is a stop-gap player who won’t be able to hold off Moore and Diggy for very long.

The need for patience is frustrating for a defensive end with nice potential, which will keep Diggy lower in my rookie rankings.

Jordan Hicks, ILB Eagles

Hicks is another guy drafted into a crowded depth chart. It’s no secret that Chip Kelly wants to ship off Mychal Kendricks, but it doesn’t appear likely at this point in the draft – that means Kiko Alonso and Kendricks will enter the season as starters leaving Hicks in a situational role, especially with DeMeco Ryans still in the mix. While Hicks’ athleticism and three down ability is positive for his long-term value, the short term situation is a disaster.

Nate Orchard, OLB / Preston Smith OLB / Carl Davis NT/DE / Eddie Goldman NT

All four of these players are scheme versatile and, unfortunately, were drafted into 3-4 base defenses. Because of their anticipated roles, their value will be capped in tackle-heavy leagues. While they’re likely to be productive for NFL purposes, they won’t be IDP prospects to target.

Scott Crichton, DE Vikings

Last year’s third round pick already has competition in Danielle Hunter. Also drafted in the third round, Hunter is often compared to Jason-Pierre Paul as an athlete freak with tremendous upside. While the potential is there with Hunter, his production didn’t match the potential at LSU. With Crichton’s quiet rookie year only seeing 16 snaps, this selection may very well be an indictment of Crichton.

Follow Steve on Twitter @SteveWyremski

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