The Eagles have landed: DeMarco Murray joins Ryan Mathews
It has been a really crazy week for everyone in Philadelphia. Over the course of just a few days, they have gone from LeSean McCoy to Ryan Mathews to DeMarco Murray to both Mathews and Murray? At the time of writing this, multiple media outlets, including ESPN’s Adam Schefter are reporting the Eagles have actually signed both Murray and Mathews to multi-year deals. At this point it is fair to wonder if Chip Kelly’s closest advisor has been a Magic 8-ball he keeps shaking in his office.
Let’s take a closer look at the players involved.
DeMarco Murray
Murray has to be one of the happiest players in all of free agency. Not only did he get the price tag he was looking for (over $8 million per season) and a hefty chunk of guaranteed money, but he gets to rub it in the faces of the Cowboys at least twice a year by staying in the division. Of course that is assuming he can stay healthy this year and be on the field of those games, but more on that later. What really confuses me is the contract Murray received was actually more expensive than the one McCoy was on when he was in Philly. So picking up Murray, before even considering Mathews, wasn’t a cost cutting measure. So what exactly was it?
If all of this shuffling wasn’t about money, then there are only a few options left. One option might be Kelly simply wanted to get something for McCoy (namely Kiko Alonso) because he knew he could get Murray in free agency for the same price. That would be a very risky move for even the boldest of front offices and require an awful lot of foresight. I don’t think this was the case, but you never know. I think it is more likely Kelly looked at the styles of the two rushers and felt Murray was a better fit. Murray is a little bit bigger and has more power to his game than McCoy does. He is also a little more north and south. McCoy often tries to create his own plays once the ball is in his hand, which is part of what makes him great, but I can see where it would drive some coaches crazy. Murray does this from time to time as well, but he is more likely to just run the play that was called. This might be what Kelly is looking for, someone who will do what they are told.
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The biggest concern with Murray and this signing as a whole is the gigantic elephant in the room. The Cowboys rode Murray into the ground last year. His nearly 500 touches are one of the highest ever for a running back in a single season. If you think there is even a smidge of truth to the concerns about workloads for running backs, like the “Curse of 370”, you need to be extremely concerned about Murray. Especially when you consider last year was the first of his four year career where he played all 16 games. I feel like the wheels are about to come off of him, and the Eagles will be stuck paying a very hefty paycheck for the next few years.
In terms of Murray’s value on the field, the scheme fit and offense around him is about as good as he could have hoped for if he wasn’t going back to Dallas. Philly has a very good offensive line and they are going to run first, second and third, in part due to their lack of receivers and quarterback! I think Murray will see a bit of a reduced workload though, thanks to Darren Sproles and Ryan Mathews being in the fold. I believe Kelly is very aware of Murray’s history and his 2014 workload and kept Mathews as well to keep Murray’s touches closer to 15 per game during the season in hopes Murray will make it all year. I’m not sure it will work, but if that is indeed the plan, Murray will be more of a low end RB1 next year if he’s splitting carries. I’m not sure if that is better or worse than him being a high end RB1 for half the season and missing the other half with injury.
Ryan Mathews
If you are a Mathews owner, you can’t be very happy right now. For a very brief moment in time, it was looking like Mathews might be a top 10 running back once again. With Murray in the fold, Mathews is now a backup. It would have been much better for his value if he had walked away and gone back to San Diego once Murray signed, but that doesn’t seem to be the case.
I believe Mathews will be used to keep Murray fresh and keep him healthy. I think the Eagles are going to run a lot with Murray getting 15 touches a game, Mathews getting around 10, and Sproles getting a handful as well. Mathews at 10 touches a game isn’t going to be startable in any but the deepest leagues. If you are a Mathews owner, you need to be hoping for Murray to go down. If/when that happens, Mathews will jump up to the low end RB1 or high end RB2 level. Of course Mathews isn’t exactly the picture of health himself, though he just might be the most valuable handcuff in the NFL right now given who is in front of him, the system and Mathews’ talent level.
Darren Sproles
I don’t think the soon to be 32-year old Sproles really belongs on a fantasy roster at this point outside of deeper leagues. Last year he managed to be the 20th running back, give or take a few spots depending on scoring, but that was largely due to some fluke touchdowns. There was more than a few times where McCoy would have a big play into the red zone and Sproles would come in to give him a rest before scoring on the next play. With Murray and Mathews in front of him, Sproles isn’t going to get those looks anymore. He’s going to be a strict passing down specialist which will make him more of a RB4. Considering his age, there are a lot of other RB4s I would rather own.
Chris Polk
I hope you traded him as soon as McCoy to Buffalo was announced. If not, you might as well drop him. What little market there was has gone up in smoke.
Philly Passing Game
With Sam Bradford at the helm for the time being and letting Jeremy Maclin walk, there were a lot of questions about what Chip Kelly plans on doing in the passing game. After spending $8.4 million a year on Murray and $3.8 million per year on Mathews, the plan is a little clearer. This is going to be a very run heavy approach with the occasional pass to try and keep defenses honest. This is much more like the Chip Kelly offense in college. It wouldn’t surprise me if the number of pass attempts and passing yards for the Eagles are near the bottom of the league next year.
If it is much closer to the Oregon passing attack, that means we are looking at only one relevant pass catcher with occasional spikes from a few other players if they break a long play or score a touchdown. My money is on Jordan Matthews being the main receiver, but his ceiling might not be as high as some think due to the run heavy system the Eagles seem to be moving towards.
Cowboys Running Game
With Murray out of the picture, the Cowboys can officially move on. Overall, I think it was a good move by the Cowboys and showed surprising discipline on the part of Jerry Jones to not get into a bidding war for Murray. With Lance Dunbar, Joseph Randle and Ryan Williams on the roster, I expect the Cowboys to add a more talented option. The Cowboys could turn to the current batch of free agent running backs like CJ Spiller or Reggie Bush, but my gut tells me that isn’t the direction they are heading.
We all know Jerry Jones loves to make a splash, and I think his first choice is to bring in Adrian Peterson. The trick is of course figuring out how to make that happen. It might not be possible given his contact, the cap issues the Cowboys have and the little tiny fact he is still under contract with the Vikings.
If Jones can’t make Peterson happen, I would expect them to spend a fairly early draft pick on a rookie. They pick 27th in the first round and could give a lot of thought to either Todd Gurley or Melvin Gordon, if they are still on the board at that point. Otherwise they could wait until pick 60 in the late second round and try to grab someone like Jay Ajayi, Tevin Coleman or Duke Johnson. No one knows which way they will lean, but whoever they grab could be a fantasy beast behind that offensive line.
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