2015 Rookie Mock Drafts February ADP: A Look at This Year’s Class

Scott Fish Posted On February 19, 2015

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Hello again, fellow rookie draft fans!

As we ready ourselves for the NFL combine to get underway in Indianapolis, I figured it would be best to let the DLF community see what the pre-combine rookie ADP looks like. I conducted six rookie mocks during the second week of February and there were some interesting changes. A few seemingly caused by senior bowl performances. For example, David Johnson scores a touchdown and suddenly mockers realized who he was. He jumped up over a round in ADP.

Here is the ADP chart for the six mock drafts we did in February. Below it I will go into a few things I have found interesting over the course of these mocks and it’s resulting average draft positions. If you would like to sign up for future startup, rookie, or devy mocks, please signup here!

Rank	Player	ADP	Mock 1	Mock 2	Mock 3	Mock 4	Mock 5	Mock 6
1	Todd Gurley, RB – Georgia	1.0	1	1	1	1	1	1
2	Amari Cooper, WR – Alabama	2.3	2	2	4	2	2	2
3	Melvin Gordon, RB – Wisconsin	3.2	3	3	3	3	3	4
4	Kevin White, WR – West Virginia	5.0	4	5	6	6	4	5
5	Devante Parker, WR – Louisville	5.3	5	4	5	5	6	7
6	Dorial Green-Beckham, WR – Missouri	5.8	6	7	2	9	5	6
7	Jaelen Strong, WR – ASU	9.0	10	9	7	7	7	14
8	Devin Funchess, WR – Michigan	10.2	14	6	9	16	8	8
9	Jay Ajayi, RB – Boise State	10.2	7	10	8	11	10	15
10	Maxx Williams, TE – Minnesota	10.7	9	11	12	8	12	12
11	Tevin Coleman, RB – Indiana	10.8	8	12	13	10	11	11
12	Duke Johnson, RB – Miami	13.0	12	13	11	12	17	13
13	TJ Yeldon, RB – Alabama	13.0	11	18	10	14	9	16
14	Ameer Abdullah, RB – Nebraska	13.0	13	16	15	17	14	3
15	Marcus Mariota, QB – Oregon	13.5	16	8	19	13	16	9
16	Jameis Winston, QB – Florida State	13.8	17	14	20	4	18	10
17	Sammie Coates, WR – Auburn	15.5	15	15	16	15	13	19
18	David Cobb, RB – Minnesota	19.0	20	21	17	23	15	18
19	Mike Davis, RB – South Carolina	21.5	24	19	22	21	19	24
20	Josh Robinson, RB – Mississippi State	21.8	19	25	32	18	20	17
21	Nelson Algholor, WR – Southern California	23.2	26	23	21	19	24	26
22	Devin Smith, WR – Ohio State	24.8	18	28	18	27	26	32
23	Phillip Dorsett, WR – Miami	25.2	34	33	14	28	22	20
24	Stefon Diggs, WR – Maryland	26.3	25	24	28	22	30	29
25	David Johnson, RB – Northern Iowa	26.8	27	27	24	29	29	25
26	Rashad Greene, WR – Florida State	27.2	31	34	23	25	28	22
27	Davante Davis, WR – UNLV	28.2	22	45	26	24	25	27
28	Tyler Lockett, WR – Kansas State	30.2	28	47	27	26	23	30
29	Justin Hardy, WR – ECU	30.2	30	31	25	30	27	38
30	Ty Montgomery, WR – Stanford	31.5	44	22	31	32	21	39
31	Javorius Allen, RB – Southern California	32.3	36	29	30	31	32	36
32	Breshad Perriman, WR – Central Florida	32.7	32	35	37	33	31	28
33	Jeremy Langford, RB – Michigan State	34.2	23	32	42	40	35	33
34	Brett Hundley, QB – UCLA	34.3	33	20	49	35	34	35
35	Malcolm Brown, RB – Texas	36.8	29	38	34	49	40	31
36	Bryce Petty, QB – Baylor	37.2	49	17	49	41	46	21
37	Jamison Crowder, WR – Duke	39.8	21	40	49	36	49	44
38	Karlos Williams, RB – Florida State	40.5	42	36	39	44	39	43
39	Tony Lippett, WR – Michigan State	41.3	37	48	43	39	47	34
40	Vince Mayle, WR – Washington State	42.3	35	37	47	49	49	37
41	DeAndre Smelter, WR – Georgia Tech	42.5	49	49	41	49	44	23
42	Deontay Greenberry, WR – Houston	43.0	47	46	46	43	36	40
43	Nick O’Leary, TE – Florida State	43.2	41	26	49	49	49	45
44	Clive Walford, TE – Miami	44.2	49	49	35	42	41	49
45	Blake Sims, QB – Alabama	44.2	49	49	49	20	49	49
46	Titus Davis, WR – Central Michigan	44.3	49	41	45	49	33	49
47	Antwan Goodley, WR – Baylor	44.7	49	44	49	37	42	47
48	Josh Harper, WR – Fresno State	44.7	43	49	29	49	49	49
49	Cameron Artis-Payne, RB – Auburn	44.8	39	49	49	49	37	46
50	Jesse James, TE – Penn State	45.3	38	49	44	49	43	49
51	Tre McBride, WR – William & Mary	45.5	49	49	33	45	49	48
52	Sean Mannion, QB – Oregon State	45.8	49	30	49	49	49	49
53	Michael Dyer, RB – Louisville	46.0	49	43	48	38	49	49
54	Austin Hill, WR – Arizona	46.0	46	49	49	34	49	49
55	Zach Zenner, RB – South Dakota State	46.2	40	49	49	49	49	41
56	Mario Alford, WR – West Virginia	46.8	49	49	36	49	49	49
57	Travis Greene, RB – Bowling Greene	47.2	49	49	38	49	49	49
58	Dezmin Lewis, WR – Central Arkansas	47.2	49	49	49	49	38	49
59	Terrell Watson, RB – Azusa Pacific	47.2	49	49	49	49	45	42
60	Garrett Grayson, QB – Colorado State	47.3	49	39	49	49	49	49
61	Trey Williams, RB – Texas A&M	47.5	49	49	40	49	49	49
62	Jeff Heuerman, TE – Ohio State	47.8	49	42	49	49	49	49
63	Tre Madden, RB – Southern California	48.3	45	49	49	49	49	49
65	Bud Sasser, WR – Missouri	48.7	49	49	49	47	49	49
66	Jahwan Edwards, RB – Ball State	48.8	48	49	49	49	49	49
67	Matt Jones, RB – Florida	48.8	49	49	49	48	49	49
68	Kasen Williams, WR – Washington	48.8	49	49	49	49	48	49

Breshad Perriman (WR – Central Florida) and Davante Davis (WR – UNLV) continue to skyrocket up the ADP. This pair of big bodied wide receivers are starting to gain some steam. Mel Kiper Jr. has been mentioning Breshad Perriman as a first round pick which is likely increasing his ADP in mocks. I will note that Perriman has been being drafted high in the expert mocks for awhile now. He went 16th and 23rd overall in the two expert mocks in January. His highest draft slot this month was 28th.

Tiers have started to form among the running backs. Jay Ajayi (RB – Boise State) has emerged as a tier of his own as the third running back. For the last two months, he’s usually drafted third at that position. Tevin Coleman (RB – Indiana) has been going a few picks later. Then there is a 3 way fight between Duke Johnson (RB – Miami), Ameer Abdullah (RB – Nebraska), and TJ Yeldon (RB – Alabama) brewing. I’m eager to see what the combine and eventual landing spots do to this group.

Josh Robinson (RB – Mississippi State)moved from a fourth rounder to a second rounder. He went from being drafted in the mid-thirties to as high as 29th off the board. That’s a one and a half round jump in ADP.

David Cobb (RB- Minnesota) moved into the 2nd round of every mock. A favorite of DLF’s own Matt Carracio, Cobb was previously a mid third round draft pick that has started to rise into that fifth tier of running backs with Mike Davis. He is now going in the mid second.

Maxx Williams (TE – Minnesota) has arrived in the first round. He was drafted in the first round of every mock now. If you’ve been reading this series, you know his climb up the charts has been talked about for awhile. Given the poor tight end class, Williams is all but guaranteed to be a top 15 dynasty rookie draft pick. There will be at least one tight end needy team in your league.

[inlinead]More QBs and TEs were drafted in these 6 mocks than any other month (except the 2QB mocks). I found this interesting, but not entirely surprising. As the draft process moves along, mockers are becoming more and more aware of the deeper prospects at those positions. They are using their late round fliers on guys they have become enamored with.

Interesting that David Johnson (RB – Northern Iowa) has moved above Javorius “Buck” Allen (RB – USC). Allen was a mid second rounder and has now dropped to a mid third rounder. This is likely due to the climb of Josh Robinson and David Johnson.

Phillip Dorsett (WR – Miami) was being drafted on average around pick 4.06 in January. In February he has jumped to an average draft slot of 3.03 being drafted as high as 2.02. That is an unreal jump! Many analysts have been discussing how Dorsett could come close to Chris Johnson’s 4.24 forty time. This is likely the cause of this jump. That is the discussion, not his speed. People are becoming more aware of him than they were in January.

Todd Gurley (RB – Georgia) was taken number one in all six mocks. Amari Cooper (WR – Alabama) was taken number two overall in five of the six mocks. Melvin Gordon (RB – Wisconsin) was taken number three overall in five of the six mocks. Those three really appear to be solidifying their spots.

Dorial Green-Beckham (WR – Oklahoma), in true lottery ticket fashion, was drafted as high as 1.02 and as low as 1.09. He is being drafted as the fourth wide receiver off the board. If you really want this guy, you might have to move up higher than you want to in your draft.

Cameron Artis-Payne (RB-Auburn) was only drafted in a couple of the mocks, but there has been some good talk about him and he’s someone to watch in upcoming mocks.

Devin Funchess (WR – Michigan) is in Indianapolis this week where I expect him to do very well. He has slid from the fourth overall player to a guy going as late as 16th overall in recent months, but I am really excited to see what happens to his ADP after the combine. There are still a lot of problems with his game; but his size, speed, vertical, and more will be on full display and have scouts and dynasty fans drooling.
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Scott Fish

Honorary Contributor at Dynasty League Football

Scott started playing dynasty in 1992 and loves to regale people with how in his 1995 rookie draft he called J.J. Stokes the next Jerry Rice. In 1999, with a friend, he created what was then called College Farm System Dynasty Leagues. They are now widely called Developmental Dynasty leagues. Scott has been in the fantasy football industry since 2003 and in 2008 created his own successful site, FFOasis.com. In April of 2014 after 6 amazing years, Scott closed FFOasis and joined DLF. Scott is a member of FSWA. Unfortunately for the rest of the world, he is married to the most amazing woman that has ever existed in the history of everything. They have been together since 2001 and in 2013 welcomed a son into their family.