Dynasty Stock Market: My Perfect Draft, Part Two

In the last edition of the Dynasty Stock Market, I used January’s dynasty ADP data to build my perfect team, round-by-round, through the first five rounds. I’ll continue that exercise today with rounds six through ten.

Before we jump into the data and the picks, some housecleaning issues to take care of:

As a reminder, my picks and general dynasty strategy includes the following:

• I value wide receivers, specifically young wide receivers above all others
• I place very little value on running backs for many reasons. In fact, if I go the first ten rounds without a running back, I would not be concerned.
• I’ve noticed, as have you I’m sure, a widening gap between the top tier quarterbacks and tight ends and the second tiers of each respective position. If I can’t have one of Aaron Rodgers, Andrew Luck or Rob Gronkowski, then I’ll likely wait and be one of the last teams to fill that spot on my roster.
• I value youth over veterans, almost to a fault. I feel like I’m adapting in this area to be more reasonable, but I still find myself opting for the younger, upside player over those who are proven and “safe.”

Also, since the publication of the first portion of this article, a mistake was discovered in our data. While it didn’t change many of the players or their overall value range, it did affect their ADP, and in some cases, which “round” you might find them. As a result, I’ll begin with the first five rounds and share any changes to my original selections.

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Remember, the players are being listed in order based on January’s dynasty ADP data, as decided by our 72 mock draft participants.

Round 1:

There are still plenty of terrific options to select as the base of a dynasty team in this first round. The only major change has Calvin Johnson in and Alshon Jeffery out. I don’t trust a nearly 30 year old receiver as my cornerstone piece, even one of the all-time greats like Johnson.

The Pick: Mike Evans, TB WR

Current Team:

QB-

RB-

WR- Evans

TE- 

Round 2:

There are plenty of ups and downs in this round as a result of my snafu, but the names remain the same, as does my somewhat risky pick.

The Pick: Randall Cobb, WR GB 

Current Team:

QB-

RB-

WR- Evans, Cobb

TE-

Round 3:

A big move here by Bengals running back Giovani Bernard doesn’t really affect the third round, as I would still opt for the Saints’ Brandin Cooks, but it will play a big role in the next round.

The Pick: Brandin Cooks, WR NO

Current Team:

QB-

RB-

WR- Evans, Cobb, Cooks

TE-

Fourth Round:

Yuck! Not only do I lose Bernard as my pick in this round, but my former fifth round pick moves up a round too. I don’t like the value of Travis Kelce nearly as much in the fourth round. The trio of Broncos in this round also has me perplexed as I’m avoiding those players until more is known about their individual and team situations for 2015. I’m tempted to grab Colts’ rookie Donte Moncrief here, but I’ve already pegged him as this year’s version of Justin Hunter, a player we artificially prop up without much cause. In the end, not liking the value much at all here, I would go with Rams’ back Tre Mason.

The Pick: Tre Mason, RB STL

Current Team:

QB-

RB- Mason

WR- Evans, Cobb, Cooks

TE-

Fifth Round:

As I mentioned, my previous choice of Kelce is no longer an option here, so I’m scrambling a bit to fill that pick. I’m avoiding older players still, eliminating many of the options in this round. While I think second, or even third tier rookie receivers like Jarvis Landry and Martavis Bryant are being overdrafted at this point, I’m drawn to both by process of elimination. With Bryant battling Antonio Brown for looks, I’ll go with Landry, who could become the top option by default if the team releases Mike Wallace, as has been rumored.

The Pick: Jarvis Landry, WR MIA

Current Team:

QB-

RB- Mason

WR- Evans, Cobb, Cooks, Landry

TE-

With that cleared up, it’s time to begin the second portion of my perfect draft and the picks will only get tougher. As the draft rolls on, it can be a challenge to stick to your plan with some big names and impressive perceived value on the board, but hold fast.

Sixth Round:

The “safe” picks are getting thin and with the youth coming off the board at this point, you have to shoot for the upside play and there are several choices in that category in this round. With all of the overvaluing of rookie wide receivers we see in these drafts, I actually think Marqise Lee is possibly being undervalued, at least compared to his cohorts. Lee was injured for much of the season attributing to his waning value. He improved though once he hit the field and even in a suddenly crowded Jacksonville receiver depth chart, Lee carved out a role. With Cecil Shorts expected to be gone, I foresee a larger role and a rise in value for Lee in 2015.

The Pick: Marqise Lee, WR JAX

Current Team:

QB-

RB- Mason

WR- Evans, Cobb, Cooks, Landry, Lee

TE-

Seventh Round:

Nearly one-third of the way through this startup draft exercise and my team is composed mostly of wide receivers, rookie wide receivers at that. If you’ve followed my work and my team building strategy, that is no surprise to you. The seventh round is a tricky spot and another rounder where I’d likely be looking to move down and stockpile later picks and/or future rookie picks. In short, I don’t like the value here. The quarterback value is starting to become somewhat enticing but an aging Drew Brees and Matt Ryan, a player I see having a relatively low ceiling, are not enough to make me sway from my late round QB plan. I’m also not opposed to grabbing a tight end here, but I have a few guys ranked above Jordan Cameron who are still available, so that option is out too. This is the point where I might start to glimpse at other rosters, seeing a nice balance of backs and receivers that could cause me to panic. Instead though, I stay with my plan and grab another young receiver with some nice upside.

The Pick: Kenny Stills, WR NO

Current Team:

QB-

RB- Mason

WR- Evans, Cobb, Cooks, Landry, Lee, Stills

TE- 

Eighth Round:

Here’s that tight end run I was expecting soon. With the top young talent thoroughly picked over at the running back and wide receiver positions, teams turn to the tight ends and we have five young guys in this round. I’ll opt for one of those tight ends too. I’ve been a big fan of both Tyler Eifert and Ladarius Green in recent years, but both have lost some value since last off-season. Eifert missed nearly the entire season with an elbow injury and Green couldn’t get on the field with the exceptional play of Antonio Gates. With that said, I’ll take Eagles’ tight end Zach Ertz, who disappointed for much of the season, but came on strong as the season winded down.

The Pick: Zach Ertz, TE PHI

Current Team:

QB-

RB- Mason

WR- Evans, Cobb, Cooks, Landry, Lee, Stills

TE- Ertz

Ninth Round:

Having made eight picks and ignoring the quarterback position is what I consider using the late round quarterback strategy. Obviously, you could wait even longer and grab a pair of veterans, but there are some solid options in the ninth round and little else that excites me. While I am no fan of the University of Louisville, I do live in the area and got to see the majority of Teddy Bridgewater’s college games. He was long considered a strong option to be the top overall pick, but instead meaningless criticisms resulted in him falling to the end of the first round as the Vikings moved up to acquire their new starting quarterback.

The Pick: Teddy Bridgewater, QB MIN

Current Team:

QB- Bridgewater

RB- Mason

WR- Evans, Cobb, Cooks, Landry, Lee, Stills

TE- Ertz 

Tenth Round

Here we have the final round of this exercise and I’ve built a relatively balanced team. Obviously, some may have concerns about having only one running back, but along my general devaluation of the position, I also focus on selecting the best player available throughout the draft, almost completely ignoring filling a starting lineup. This strategy also can result in drafting a pair of quarterbacks or tight ends early in the draft. That is not always ideal, but I don’t shy away from it either. That won’t be the case in this draft though. Instead, I will grab my second running back in Jaguars’ Denard Robinson, who looked great in his second season and first extensive playing time as a professional. Robinson, a converted quarterback, gave the Jags a spark at the running back position after both Toby Gerhart and Storm Johnson had flopped.

The Pick: Denard Robinson

Current Team:

QB- Bridgewater

RB- Mason, D Robinson

WR- Evans, Cobb, Cooks, Landry, Lee, Stills

TE- Ertz

With over half the draft remaining, I would continue to focus on the acquiring the best player available, which usually means young, high-upside players. Many of my later round picks would also come from the running back position, as I gamble on cheaper, backup running backs with the expectation one or two of those will hit and become a starting level fantasy player.

Follow @RyanMc23 on Twitter

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Ryan McDowell

Contributor at Dynasty League Football

In addition to his senior leadership role here at DLF, Ryan is also a husband, father of three and PE teacher. Ryan is the commissioner of multiple dynasty leagues, most notably the Kitchen Sink Dynasty Leagues. Here at DLF, Ryan’s focus is on identifying, monitoring and analyzing player value.

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