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The Dynasty Trading Post

Ryan McDowell Posted On October 23, 2014
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Welcome to the official first edition of the Dynasty Trading Post. If you’ve got some of my recent work in the DLF Newsletter or last week’s Dynasty Stock Market, you already know why we’re here. If you missed that, here’s a quick explanation. Each week, I’ll post some actual dynasty trades that have occurred, along with my commentary on each deal. I believe following and studying these completed trades gives a dynasty owner a good understanding of the current market. These deals are also a good representation of the latest news and trends across both the NFL and dynasty leagues. All of these trades are found by searching #dynastytrades on Twitter.

https://twitter.com/FantasyGopher/status/524665869050204160

In the pre-season, we heard whispers that Benny Cunningham could challenge Zac Stacy for the starting job in St. Louis and while Cunningham has had a role early this season, it looked as if Stacy had maintained his grasp on the job, until last week that is. After the team’s week seven game in which rookie Tre Mason saw some late game action, there were reports that Mason could see even more carries, but no one could have imagined Stacy would not get a single touch, while Mason carried the ball and Cunningham caught passes out of the backfield. Obviously, this is a huge blow to Stacy’s value, considering there were already questions about his talent.

If you choose to sell Stacy now, this is probably the best case you could hope for. In this deal, FantasyGopher received another disappointing back, Toby Gerhart, along with Roy Helu and a future third round pick. On their own, none of these pieces have much value, but he traded his one lottery ticket for three. While Gerhart and Helu are not players I would be chasing, I like the deal based on the increased odds Gopher bought himself.

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This is an example of why the plan I’ve previously laid out in my Dynasty Blueprint series can really work. I preach to wait, wait and wait even longer on drafting running backs in a dynasty startup draft, while instead acquiring wide receivers and a top quarterback that can be counted on for years. When you are ready to contend, you can acquire a reliable starting running back like Joique Bell for a second round pick. There are many examples of deal like this with other backs being sold for mid-round picks.

While I rank Sammy Watkins and many of the rookie wide receivers very high in comparison to some veterans, he’s not in the elite tier yet. The majority of the Big Five wide receivers are still young enough to build around and wait on, even if your team isn’t contending this year. While moving Demaryius Thomas for Watkins and more is a deal I might consider, if veteran receiver Marques Colston represents the “more” this would be a deal I’d reject. To move any of the top four receivers; Thomas, Dez Bryant, AJ Green and Julio Jones, you have to get two good young pieces. If you’re a contending team and currently have Watkins rostered, it might be beneficial to shop him to see if his value has climbed enough to bring you a return such as this.

The dynasty value of Vikings’ receiver Cordarrelle Patterson is certainly a mystery. His explosive play and athletic ability led to him being one of the most hyped players of the entire off-season. His ADP climbed as high as the early second round, yet when the season started, his owners seemed unsure about plugging him into their starting lineups. That uncertainty grows by the week as his role continues to be in question. I’ve been a big supporter of Patterson and I’m too starting to doubt if he will ever be consistent enough to rely on as a weekly starter, but with that said, this deal is a painful example of selling low. Patterson will have some big weeks and he has plenty of fans left in the dynasty community. If you are a believer or not, you have to take advantage of price drops like this one.

This is one of the rare dynasty trades which includes all veteran players. I will assume both of these teams are in “win now” mode, based on the players changing hands. Saints’ tight end Jimmy Graham has been slowed as of late with an injury, but he should still bring more in return than this. Of course, Marshawn Lynch has been a top fantasy producer this season, but given the choice, I’ll always take the elite pass catcher over the elite running back, especially when the back is nearing 30 years old. Here, Jake made a wise play to acquire Graham at a low point, coming off a zero point performance in week seven.

And this folks is how you sell high!

After his breakout week seven performance, I, and many others, suggested selling Denard Robinson. Robinson is a freak athlete, but he’s not a natural running back and has squandered past chances at extended playing time, not to mention this team is a complete train wreck right now. Robinson could have a couple more productive games, but I don’t see him as the lead back of the future in any way. On a similar note, Andre Holmes has had a couple of good games and can make the big play, but he also has issues making routine catches. Cashing in on these guys for a high upside prospect like Jordan Matthews, who also happens to be part of one of the league’s top offenses, is a no-brainer.

This one is similar to the deal above with Holmes and Robinson being packaged for an upgrade. Just as in the trade above, this is an example of a consolidation deal. These are among my favorite types of trades, but can also be tough to execute. In deals like this, the team receiving the lone player is always obviously receiving the best player in the deal and, understandably, some owners are hesitant to make a trade if they are giving up the top valued player. A collection of “maybes” is usually not nearly as attractive as that one sure thing. Also, roster space comes into consideration on deals like this. Presumably, the team acquiring the three players not only gave Michael Floyd in the deal, but also had to drop a pair of players to execute the trade. These drops, while often no brainers, must be considered in the evaluation of the final trade.

Vikings’ rooking running back Jerick McKinnon is one of the hottest names in dynasty circles right now, so it’s somewhat surprising to see him being dealt. While McKinnon has impressed at this early point in his career, I have my doubts about his long-term prospects. McKinnon came into the league without a position, as he primarily played quarterback in college. To my knowledge, no player has ever made a successful transition from college quarterback to NFL running back. Also, it’s clear the Vikings will bring in another back prior to the 2015 season, assuming Adrian Peterson is no longer on the roster. I like McKinnon and he’s a player I’d like to have on my roster, but given the strong 2016 rookie class, I’d prefer the top prospect.

In this deal, Matt got cold feet and dealt away one of the top running backs in all of dynast and I don’t blame him at all. In fact, I pulled off a similar, though not nearly as profitable deal this week when I traded LeSean McCoy for Michael Floyd and a future second round pick. I’m not sure about Matt’s league, but my league requires only one starter at running back and you know about my fixation for young wide receivers. Here, Matt not only received Floyd, but also young receiver Allen Robinson and a future first rounder and got out of the McCoy ownership group before the inevitable steep drop off. Matt also recognizes the windfall of running backs that will be entering the league in just a few short months and he is preparing by loading up on rookie picks.

Smart move!

I selfishly included this deal as it’s from one of my Kitchen Sink leagues, but I don’t think you’ll mind. What a huge trade! Some background on this league to help evaluate the deal – it’s both a devy league (as you can see) and a super flex league, which enhances the value of all quarterbacks. Obviously, one of these teams (owned by Mr. Groll) is contending and making a run at a league title, while the other is building for the future. The best part of trading in dynasty leagues is these types of win-win deals. One team acquires a pair of automatic weekly starters in Tom Brady and Jamaal Charles who could propel his team to a title, while the other lands two young devy players and two additional picks. That leads me to another detail about this league, which I also mentioned last week. Picks in this league have an assigned dollar amount, which coincides with how that team finishes in the final standings. Once the dollar value of each pick has been decided, the money can be “stacked” meaning the new owner of these first round picks can add that money to his additional rookie and devy money and will increase his chances of landing a top player of his choice. The value of devy players in leagues like this can be tough to evaluate, especially if they are more than a year away from the NFL (like Thomas Tyner is), but it never hurts for a rebuilding team to add young prospects.

Follow @RyanMc23 on Twitter

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